Carolina Hurricanes: Blue Line Pre and Post Dougie Analytics
The Carolina Hurricanes are a different team without their favorite goofball, Dougie. Let’s break down the defense to see how the team is with and without Hamilton.
It has been 12 games now, and a whole all-star break, since our favorite goofball was in a red and black sweater. It saddens our hearts deeply, but if you were at the last couple of home games, Dougie was there to sound the siren; a glimmer of hope!
It is also apparent that the team has been struggling lately and is missing Dougie’s production on the ice as much as his antics.
Let’s take some time to break down Canes life with Dougie and without Dougie. While yes this effects everyone on the team, the focus here is the blue liners, with a sprinkle of goalie talk. It’s hard to just talk about before and after with so may variables to compare, so let’s start with the old win column.
Canes Win Percentage
Pick Analysis. With Dougie. WD. player. 109. With Dougie. 27-17-2. Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes were 27-17-2 with Dougie Hamilton on the roster and playing. This seems great right? It is! The Canes were sitting comfortably in a playoff spot and winning games more than not!
To find a true “win percentage” in the NHL it’s best to think about how many points a team earned, and how much it could have earned. Since you get points for after regulation losses, there is more to consider.
The Canes could have grabbed 92 points in the first 46 games (nearly impossible), but only captured 56. This comes out to being a 61% point-getting ratio.
For the sake of this article we are going to wash the 1/16/19 game where Dougie was hurt. This was a loss so the final standings will have the Canes with one more loss, but we are focusing on Pre and Post Dougie.
Pick Analysis. ND. player. Scouting Report. 7-3-2. No Dougie. Carolina Hurricanes. 109
Now in the games since Dougie’s injury, the Canes are 7-3-2, again seems good right? Right! In this time frame the Canes captured 16 out of 24 possible points in 12 games. That makes a 67% point-getting ratio.
But at the same time the Canes are hanging on to a playoff spot for dear life! So what gives? By no means does this mean the Canes are better without Dougie. If anything it means we lost a guy with 40 points in 46 games when we needed him most. Everyone else in the Metro is playing out of their minds right now.
But that’s the team, let’s see the individual stats.
Blue Liners With Dougie
Dougie Hamilton was quite the offensive blue liner and just the perfect centerpiece of the defense, here is how he fared before the injury.
40 points, 14 goals. Dougie Hamilton. player. 109. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games. 19. Season Report
And here is everyone else. (In order of points)
player. 22 points, 4 goals. Jaccob Slavin. 74. 109. Season Report. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games
Pick Analysis. Brett Pesce. 22. player. 109. Season Report. First 46 Games. 15 points, 4 goals
Season Report. Jake Gardiner. 51. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games. 12 points, 3 goals. player. 109
player. 11 points, 4 goals. Joel Edmundson. 6. 109. Season Report. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games
player. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games. 5 points, 2 goals in 24 games. Haydn Fleury. 4. Season Report. 109
3 points, 0 goals in 28 games. Trevor van Riemsdyk. 57. 109. Season Report. Pick Analysis. First 46 Games. player
So as you can see Dougie was doing ALL OF THE WORK for the defense. Was he often getting bailed out by a very sound Slavin, sure but outside of them, in 46 games, there was very little offensive production.
Defense Without Dougie
Since that horrid day, the defense has combined for 30 points through 12 games without Hamilton. That’s not terrible! It should be noted though that Slavin had 8 of those points and 3 goals in those 12 games.
Other stand outs without Dougie in the line up have to be Fleury and Gardiner. These two have played defensively very well; not giving up the puck in bad situations. They have also found the back of the net and tallied a few points. Eye test, and on paper it seems to be Slavin, Gardiner, Fleury, are the Canes best blue liners right now.
Slavin has been effective with whomever he is paired with. Notching points while running lines with both Edmundson for four games, and van Riemsdyk since then. That was really the only switch Rod made, according to the Canes starting line ups: after 4 games he switched Edmundson to play with Fleury and van Riemsdyk to play with Slavin.
This switch seamed to do the trick and make both Edmundson and van Riemsdyk more offensively effective. The two combined for a single point, an assist before the switch and since then, 8 points and two goals.
The Eye Test
As a whole the Canes defense does NOT pass the eye test. That being said, Slavin always will and surprisingly both Jake Gardiner and Haydn Fleury have played amazing in the last 12 games.
Even with some of the bottom guys stepping up, the offensive defense and, quite frankly, defensively defense has not been holistically great.
Another note to take a look at is our goalies,
Season Report. Pick Analysis. 3-3. Petr Mrazek. 109. Since Dougie, 6 games. 34. player
Pick Analysis. Since Dougie, 6 Games. James Reimer. Season Report. 4-0-2. 47. player. 109
On paper it seems that Petr has lost some of his force in the cage. Again by the eye test, the defense has just been letting them both down. That being said Reimer is playing exceptionally well as of late, getting the team a point in every game he starts.
So what should you as a reader make of all of this?
Conclusion about Canes D and Dougie
Yes, I understand that was a lot of statistics thrown at you in the last couple of pages. So the burning question right now is probably; well what does this all mean?
The Canes are fine, but man having Dougie helps, a LOT. Without one of our top 4 scorers everyone else has to step up. Everyone on the Canes has this ability but not with the same consistency as Dougie.
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The Canes are still making the best of the situation at hand and getting points, but so is everyone in the Metro. It seems the Canes need some help to get back to the With-Dougie swag. Could this be in a trade, maybe a trade we already made? I’m not sure. Dougie will be back, hopefully before the playoffs, but the Canes still need to MAKE the playoffs.
There are still a few days before the trade deadline and to be quite frank I have no idea what goes on in Don Waddell‘s head. Maybe a loaner is perfect, or even just moving the lines around again!
What is for certain is that the Canes can rely on the SAT line for all offensive production, BUT the defense still needs to play tight D and not let the keepers sit on an island.
So Dougie, we miss you, like a lot. Get better and get back, PLEASE!
Question for CC Readers: How do you think the defense fairs without Dougie?
Next. Carolina Hurricanes 2019 Draft Update: The Final Segment. dark