Carolina Hurricanes: Breaking Down Sebastian Aho's Goals

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 08: Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates after scoring a goal during the third period against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena on February 08, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Sebastian Aho scored his 30th goal of the season on Saturday night, tying the career-high he set last year. What kind of impact have his tallies had for the Carolina Hurricanes?

It’s no secret how important Sebastian Aho is to the success of the Carolina Hurricanes. A transition to playing center in the NHL did nothing to slow the young Finn down; to the contrary, it sparked his best season to date. With his team bearing down for a playoff push, Aho has hit the 30 goal mark for the second consecutive season and is on pace for over 45 goals.

That would match and probably surpase the Hurricanes’ single-season record, set by Eric Staal in the 2005-06 season. His 31st last night set a personal career record for himself as well.

Not too shabby.

So, with Aho on an excellent goal-scoring pace, let’s take a look at the importance of his goals. To break this down, we’re going to look at goals that fall into the following categories:

First goal of a game
Game tying goals
Go ahead goals
Game-winning goals
Goals scored late in a rout
Insurance goals

Only one player in @Canes team history has required fewer games to score their 30th goal of a season than @SebastianAho (55 GP) - Eric Staal (46 GP in 2005-06). #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/gPN8UkiNg0
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) February 9, 2020

Before we get into everything, let’s take a look at the breakdown of his goals by period this season:

1st: 8
2nd: 10
3rd: 13

That’s a pretty even breakdown, though none of us should be surprised at the distribution. The Hurricanes have maintained an annoying habit of starting slow and building their game as time passes. The positive is that it shows that Aho’s production doesn’t lag as the game goes on and that he’s there when the team is pushing.

RALEIGH, NC – FEBRUARY 02: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) shoots the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the Vancouver Canucks on February 2nd, 2020 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

The Breakdown

First goal of the game: 7 (20%)

We all know how important scoring the first goal is, especially over recent weeks (months? years?). As of writing, Aho has opened the scoring in six games and in those games, the Hurricanes sport a record of 4-2. The Hurricanes have scored first in 26 of their 56 games going into the weekend matchups, giving Aho a 27% share in that. Not too bad.

Game-tying goals: 1 (3.33%)

I dislike this one because it means that the Hurricanes have been trailing. Of course, I live in reality, so I’ll move on from that. This is, of course, a very important stat because it shows the team’s ability to rally and a player’s ability to contribute when it’s needed. Aho currently has only one game-tying goal, but this one carries extra weight. Why? It was scored on the power play. We all know what the Hurricanes’ power play has been like for a large chunk of the season, and tying a game on the man advantage is a big boost.

Go-ahead goals: 10 (33.33%)

Now, let me elaborate a little with this one: Sebastian Aho has actually scored 10 go-ahead goals, however, 6 of those were the game’s first goal. Yes, they still count and are just as important, I just want to create a little separation. In another important category, Aho has performed well.

Insurance goals: 12 (40%)

Padding a lead is never a bad thing, especially in today’s NHL. Aho’s killer instinct has come to the fore with great regularity in situations where the Hurricanes are looking to extend their lead.

Game-winning goals: 5 (16.66%)

Ah, the Holy Grail of goals: the game-winner. We have another duplicate, as Aho’s game-winner in a shutout against the Detroit Red Wings was also the first goal of the game. He’s netted the winning tally in 15.6% of the Hurricanes’ wins so far, a number that struck me as low at first blush. The flipside is that with the talent on the team, Aho doesn’t always have to be “The Guy.”

Late goals in a rout: 2 (6.66%)

While this category is fine for padding stat lines, it means very little in terms of importance to the team. For a player as important to the team as Aho, it’s good (but no surprise) to see that he isn’t picking up a ton of meaningless goals.

RALEIGH, NC – JANUARY 17: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) celebrates a goal during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the Anaheim Ducks on January 17th, 2020 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Conclusion

Sebastian Aho: 2019-20 (through 2-12-20)

31 Goals:

22 even-strength (~70%)
6 power play (~20%)
3 shorthanded (~10%)

More from Cardiac Cane

So, when we clean up the goals that fall under multiple categories, 27 (90%) of Sebastian Aho’s 31 goals have come at key times for the Carolina Hurricanes. Aho’s current pace means he should have 15 goals left, at least (a guy can hope). That production will be key as the Hurricanes push to make consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 2002.

The good thing is that Aho seems to score the majority of his goals when his team needs a jolt. That’s something that will have to continue if the Hurricanes hope to be playing meaningful hockey this spring.

Do you think Sebastian Aho will come up clutch for the Carolina Hurricanes down the stretch?

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Carolina Hurricanes: Breaking Down Sebastian Aho’s Goals