Examining the Carolina Hurricanes’ Goalie Situation
Plagued with inconsistent goaltending throughout the season, could the Carolina Hurricanes look to improve in that area?
The Carolina Hurricanes have big time aspirations this year. The return of Justin Williams all but affirms that – if he didn’t believe that the Canes had a chance, he wouldn’t be here. Off to their best start in years, at 25-16-2, the roster now looks like it doesn’t have many real holes at all – except for maybe one.
Despite some stellar moments, the Canes goaltending situation has been shaky at best. The numbers support it. Among qualified goaltenders, Petr Mrazek‘s save percentage is ranked 43rd out of 58, and James Reimer is 25th, with the Canes’ team save percentage sitting at a paltry .900, good for 21st in the NHL. The only other team currently holding a playoff position with a lower team save percentage is the Philadelphia Flyers at .897%.
But the results are concerning for multiple reasons. First off, the Hurricanes allow just 28.7 shots against per game, which is the 2nd best suppression rate in the NHL. Their shot differential of +234 is the best mark in the league.
Plus, they’re 8th best in goals against per game, allowing an average of just 2.86 per game. The Canes lead the league in CA/60, but have an xGA/60 of about 2.4, which is right above the league average. That means they limit quantity, but are susceptible to quality.
Overall, the advanced numbers aren’t overly kind to Mrazek and Reimer, and the eye test doesn’t fare much better. The goaltending issue became glaringly apparent in the Canes’ last game against the Flyers – when Reimer allowed 3 weak goals which almost cost the Hurricanes 2 points.
Canes fans have accepted Mrazek’s inconsistency over the last couple seasons, but it’s been an extremely up-and-down season for Reimer. He started off terribly, before going on a 6-game run where he was 5-1-0 with a .949 save%, and has now followed that up with a putrid .769 save% in his last 3 starts. (.769 is NOT a typo….he’s really been that bad).
Though they’ve been hung out to dry at times, the Canes’ goaltenders haven’t really stolen them many games either. They haven’t necessarily made a big save when needed, and neither guy has matched Mrazek’s run of form from January through the playoffs last year.
Because of this, it’s hard to envision Canes GM Don Waddell confidently willing to move forward with the Canes’ current tandem. Waddell mentioned at Williams’ presser on Wednesday that the Canes are projecting to have around 5 million in cap space around the trade deadline, and they’d be open to a potential move should one that makes sense arise. They also have some in-house options that could be worth looking at. Join me as I break it all down.
In-House Options
The most feasible and maybe realistic option the Canes could turn to is promising goaltending prospect Alex Nedeljkovic, whom they had enough faith in to award him with a one-way deal for the 2020-21 season. Nedejkovic just recently celebrated his 24th birthday, and is in the midst of his 4th season developing in the Canes pro system.
After his stellar run of form last season to aid the Charlotte Checkers Calder Cup victory, many had pegged Nedeljkovic as a replacement for the now-departed Curtis McElhinney, as Nedeljkovic posted a .916 save% last season and has been long called upon by Caniacs for a run in Carolina’s crease. Unfortunately, the acquisition of James Reimer put a hold on Nedeljkovic’s arrival.
He had a nightmarish start to the season in Charlotte, losing his first 3 games and allowing 11 goals on just 52 shots, and some onlookers quickly turned on Nedeljkovic claiming that his stellar play last season was just a product of a great Charlotte roster and defense group. However, it’s safe to say Ned has really silenced those critics since then.
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Since that terrible start, Nedeljkovic’s last 15 starts have resulted in a 9-5-1 record, with a 2.00 GAA and a .926 save percentage in those games. He’s been an immense part of the Checkers’ recent revival, and despite an extremely limited sample size, he’s shown (in just 90 minutes) that he can handle NHL quality competition.
Nedeljkovic has a cap hit of just 725K at the NHL level, so technically the Hurricanes could summon him at any time. The offsetting part of that is that they would be sitting one of Mrazek or Reimer in the press box, whom both count for more than 3M each against the cap. They could also look to waive one of them, but I’m not sure the situation has escalated to that point *yet*.
As things currently stand, with Nedeljkovic’s recent run of fantastic form in Charlotte, I don’t think he’d be any worse than what we’ve seen in the Hurricanes net this year, and, considering the franchises’ hopes for him in the future, right now might be a good time to see just what he can do.
Their other option in the AHL is Anton Forsberg, who nearly beat out Reimer in the backup-goaltending competition back in training camp this season. Could Reimer looking like he had no business in an NHL rink against Philadelphia re-open the door for Forsberg?
In case you forgot, I think it’s important to note that Forsberg was awarded a one-way deal in arbitration (which was a JOKE) so the Canes are paying him a full $775,000 salary this year, regardless if he ever sets foot in the Hurricanes crease or not. The fact that Forsberg was awarded a one-way contract really upset Canes brass after he didn’t play a single NHL minute the season prior.
In terms of on-ice performance, the 27-year old Forsberg has left a lot to be desired. His numbers in Charlotte aren’t terrible on the surface, but a 2.7 GAA and a steady .909 save percentage at the AHL level this year doesn’t inspire much confidence. Beyond that, his .901 save percentage in 45 NHL games is pedestrian at best, and the Canes would likely be better suited looking elsewhere for help.
Just to do due diligence on all possible options, the Canes could also theoretically take a crack with either Callum Booth or Jeremy Helvig, who’re both developing in the pro system. Unfortunately, both now 22-years old, neither guy has even been able to hold down a starting role in the ECHL yet (Booth has played just 4 games all season, Helvig 12).
At this point, not only is their immediate future a write-off but their potential NHL futures are very much up in the air, and if they’re ever going to be of service to the Hurricanes it won’t be for years down the road.
With all the current in-house options taken care of, now we can take a look at potential trade options.
The Trade Market
In what should be a surprise to nobody, almost mid-way into January, that the goalie market around the NHL is pretty dry. Teams that are in the playoff hunt are obviously likely to hold on to their guys, which severely limits the amount of potential trade partners that are out there. And then when you analyze who may be available, it’s pretty slim pickings.
From what I can tell (along with the general consensus) is that the Canes’ best option if they go the trade route is Alexandar Georgiev, a 23-year old Bulgarian native currently with the New York Rangers. The immovable(?) contract of Henrik Lundqvist combined with the arrival of arguably the top goalie prospect in the world Igor Shestyorkin has found Georgiev on the outside looking in.
Despite that, he’s actually rather good. He’s played in 63 games since his arrival in New York back in 2017, compiling a 28-26-6 record, a 3.03 GAA and a .913 save percentage, which is pretty good considering how inept the Rangers have been defensively during that period. In about the same time frame, Lundqvist is 27-32-13, with a 3.09 GAA and a .908 save%, inferior numbers to Georgiev.
Georgiev would not be just a rental, stop-gap fix for Carolina either. He’s only 23 years old and still has a lot of room to grow. He’d be an RFA after the season, so still in team control. That said, I don’t think New York would be anxious to move him for cheap, especially not to a divisional foe. I won’t speculate on trades, but you probably have to figure a couple of second-round picks would have to go the Rangers’ way.
Beyond Georgiev, who is the most appealing option to me, you’re left with impending UFAs who teams could look to move as rentals. A quick scan around the league has the following guys meeting that criteria:
Craig Anderson (OTT)
Robin Lehner, Corey Crawford (CHI)
Jacob Markstrom (VAN)
Jimmy Howard (DET)
From a realistic standpoint, those 5 would be the most plausible options should Carolina have interest. Off the bat, Markstrom in Vancouver is sort of a wildcard right now. He’s in the midst of a career year, and the Nucks are still in the playoff hunt. Should they fall back, and can’t agree to an extension with Markstrom, they could look to get a big return on him, considering they have youngsters Thatcher Demko and Michael DiPietro waiting in the wings. But Markstrom was just named to the All-Star Game and would not come cheap.
Robin Lehner is another enticing option, even if just as a rental. He’s got a .922 save% for a weak Blackhawks team, coming off a career year as an Islander last season. However, Lehner was outdueled by Mrazek and McElhinney in round 2 of the playoffs last year, so Carolina could be reluctant to give up what would likely amount to a ransom for him.
The other 3 goalies (Crawford, Anderson, Howard) I only included to be thorough, but all are on the wrong side of 35 and having statistically bad seasons. They’ve all had success before, but I’m not sure Carolina would be eager to take a gamble on any of them turning back the clock. Personally, I would go the Nedeljkovic route before this one.
Recap
Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is that Carolina seems to be in a tough situation all around. Mrazek and Reimer have shown they can be a successful tandem at times, and on the flip side have shown that they can’t be relied on. Consistent inconsistency. The problem is, any of the potential moves the team could make also have red flags attached.
For Nedeljkovic, he’s inexperienced at the NHL level, and of course he can’t gain experience without playing but it goes without saying that throwing him into the fire is a risk in the middle of a playoff hunt.
On the trade market, Waddell will likely be cautious as both Mrazek and Reimer are signed through 2021. Ned is also on a one-way deal next year, so if the team would add a guy like Georgiev, figuratively you’d have 4 goalies in the mix for 2 spots next year, so more moves would have to be made. Beyond that, the UFA rental options are sparse, and a worthwhile one like Lehner may be coveted elsewhere.
Overall, it’s extremely tough to gauge just what the Carolina Hurricanes could do, and sometimes doing nothing is actually the best thing. We should get some clarity on the direction they could take over the next few weeks, depending how Mrazek and Reimer hold up in the crease inching towards the trade deadline on February 24.
Even if nothing materializes, it’s a situation worthy of being closely monitored by Canes fans.
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Question for CC Readers: What should the Canes do?