Over the last week, the Carolina Hurricanes have clinched a playoff berth with a dominant win over the Columbus Blue Jackets and won the Metropolitan Division with a wild overtime win over the Boston Bruins. With these two things locked up, there is only one big fight for the Canes as we reach the end of the long regular season.
Along with getting a win on Tuesday, the Hurricanes have gotten a little help from Buffalo and Ottawa in beating the Lightning to establish a four-point lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Behind them sits a trio of teams from the Atlantic Division, featuring the Sabres, the Lightning, and the red-hot Canadiens. All three have 102 points with four games remaining on their schedules.
Below are the records and the remaining schedules for the four teams remaining in the race:
Carolina | Tampa Bay | Buffalo | Montreal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Record | 50-22-6, 106 | 48-24-6, 102 | 47-23-8, 102 | 46-22-10, 102 |
Game #79 | at CHI (4/9) | at MTL (4/9) | at NYR (4/8) | vs. TBL (4/9) |
Game #80 | at UTH (4/11) | at BOS (4/11) | vs. CBJ (4/9) | vs. CBJ (4/11) |
Game #81 | at PHI (4/13) | vs. DET (4/13) | at CHI (4/13) | at NYI (4/12) |
Game #82 | at NYI (4/14) | vs. NYR (4/15) | vs. DAL (4/15) | at PHI (4/14) |
Thursday is a very big night for the #1 race
There is only one night remaining in the regular season during which all four of these teams will be in action at the same time. That comes on Thursday. The Canes begin their season-ending road trip in Chicago, the Sabres host the still-alive Blue Jackets, and the biggest game of them all sees the Canadiens welcome the Lightning to town.
Before then, the Sabres are in action tonight at Madison Square Garden, so their position could be affected before Thursday's action. Despite being eliminated from postseason contention, the Rangers have gotten hot all of a sudden, winning five of their last six games on home ice, so a win on Wednesday is not guaranteed for the Sabres.
The Bolts did themselves no favors by dropping both ends of their back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday. Now, they have to head into Montreal and face a team they lost to 4-1 on home ice just over a week ago. With even one win, the Bolts could've put a decent hold over the division, with a win in Montreal all but solidifying their division win. Now, it remains up in the air.
Each team has some scheduling advantages, other than the Hurricanes
When breaking down the final four games for each team, it's clear that each team in the Atlantic has one thing working in its favor with the scheduling. For the Lightning, it's that they don't play a back-to-back, while the other three do. For the Sabres, it's that they only play two playoff contenders, while the rest are playing at least three. For the Habs, it's that their schedule doesn't require much travel.
Then, there's the Hurricanes. This season-ending road trip is one of the most evil concoctions I've ever seen. The team heads to Chicago to start the trip on Thursday before flying to the other side of the country for a game in Salt Lake City. Then, they fly all the way back across the country for a back-to-back in Philadelphia and on Long Island. It's a big reason why I'm not sure about their clinching #1.
If there's one area that the Hurricanes can take advantage of, it's that they've already locked up their division, while their three combatants from the Atlantic are still trying to solve their order heading into the postseason. With a good start to their trip, the Canes can afford to rest some of their players, as they have in years past.
The tiebreakers could prove to be crucial in determining a winner
While wins and points are always important, how and when you beat your opponents are amplified late in the season. The tiebreakers are a big part of that. Since every team will play 82 games at the end of the season, the heirarchy of tiebreakers is regulation wins, regulation and overtime wins, then total wins, in that order.
Carolina | Tampa Bay | Buffalo | Montreal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reg. Wins | 36 | 39 | 39 | 32 |
Reg. + OT Wins | 45 | 44 | 42 | 42 |
Wins | 50 | 48 | 47 | 46 |
If the season ended today, the Canes would be the top seed on points. However, should they finish tied, we start looking at tiebreaker scenarios. Both Tampa Bay and Buffalo hold the advantage in the first tiebreaker, while the Canes would edge Montreal. The further down the tiebreaker scenarios, the more it favors the Canes, but I think that first one will be what it comes down to.
As far behind the Bolts and the Sabres as they are in regulation wins, the best thing the Canes can do is to keep winning, which feels like the most obvious statement possible. However, unless the other two teams crumble, I don't see a path for the Canes to catch them with four games left. That's why winning it outright in points is going to be the best course of action to lock up the top seed.