Someone once said, you can make statistics say what you want if you try. You cannot disagree with that. But when you set out to prove one thing with statistics and end up proving yourself wrong, wise men can sit at home eating plain crackers.
I set out trying to prove myself wrong, and ended up proving myself both wrong and right? At this point, who knows. You can believe me or not, but Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov are in fact better or as good (at least according to the statistical test I ran) as Fredrick Andersen.
I am of the mind that a goalie is very much like a pitcher in baseball or a quarterback in football in that not all of the weight of the team is on their shoulders but a good bit of it is. If R.A. Dickey isn’t getting his knuckle ball working, it’s going to be a long 9 innings for the outfielders.
Warren Moon can’t get the ball over the line of scrimmage? His receivers better divide by half.
Goalie can’t keep the other team out, or at least out more than in, you had better put on the foil and think of a better way to score more goals.
With that in mind here is what I did, and how I am supporting my statement that both Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov are better or as good as Fredrick Andersen.
I took the score of each Carolina Hurricanes game. If the other team was winning in that period, I marked it read, if the teams were tied they got marked yellow. Should the Canes be winning, that got marked with a green check.
Here is what I came up with
Also, this method proved several different trends within the three goalies.
Pyotr Kochetkov is consistently winning or losing. The Canes rookie goalie also had seven games in which he never gave up the lead. He also had only four games where he never had the lead to give up. He only has one come from behind win which was the December 1st game against St. Louis in which he did not start and came in as relief for Antti Raanta.
The Hurricanes are rarely tied with Kochetkov or tied in the middle of the game. Also, if the Canes are ever tied with Kochetkov in the net, they are more likely to lose that game.
Antti Raanta on the other hand works more from ties, and more importantly wins from those ties. Even if Raanta is losing the game, he is more likely to get a tie, if only to lose the game. Still Raanta is more likely to win a game from start to finish than Fredrick Andersen and only slightly less likely that Pyotr Kochetkov.
He is also less likely to lose a game from puck drop to the final horn. 6 times, he has come back from a tie, or behind.
Where Kochetkov and Raanta are streaky, Fredrick Andersen seems to constantly fall off over the course of the game rather than streaks of hot or cold. He is more likely to give up a lead, or lose a game from a tie later than Raanta and Kochetkov. Andersen’s last two games, against the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights, are the most consistent tied or losing of his year.
All three goalies have prolonged periods of winning, and losing. Raanta and Kochekov have more streaks in games where Andersen loses periods.
Raanta, Kochetkov, and Andersen are consistent goalies. They are successful more than they are not but as you can see, at least when it comes to the way I have things set, Kochetkov and Raanta are as good or better than Andersen when it comes to out right winning periods.
Or at the very least keeping the other teams out of the net period by period. As far as goalies go, the Carolina Hurricanes have three of the best, but sometimes the stats just don’t lie.