Carolina Hurricanes: Dougie Hamilton Can’t Be Replaced

One of the most oddly polarizing players in Carolina Hurricanes’ history is Dougie Hamilton. Within the Canes’ fanbase, you either love him and understand the value he brings to the roster, or you ignore all of that and can’t stand him and the fact that he might not pass your ‘eye test’.

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While both the eye test and analytics are imperative to formulating a robust understanding of hockey players (and hockey in general), Dougie is nothing less than an analytical darling who might fail the eye test here and there. The indisputable fact, though, is that he makes the Carolina Hurricanes and, by extension, whoever he is partnered with, better.

The criticism I see the most when it comes to Dougie is that he isn’t good in his own end of the ice. Admittedly, Dougie does make the occasional mistake defensively, and isn’t quite as quick as guys like Jaccob Slavin or Brett Pesce in getting back into position after getting beat, but the analytics say that the Canes on the whole play better defense (and offense) when Dougie is on the ice.

When it comes to advanced statistics, the specific stats to start looking at when determining a player’s effectiveness at both ends of the ice is their ‘expected goals for/against per 60’, or ‘xGF/60’ and ‘xGA/60’. We’ll be looking at these and some other advanced stats from the 2020-21 NHL regular season.

According to Evolving Hockey‘s RAPM Charts, Dougie’s xGA/60 at even strength, which showcases his effectiveness in the defensive end during 5v5 hockey, is almost even at a value of 1. Dougie is one of two full-time defensemen on the Carolina Hurricanes’ roster to even have a positive xGA/60 (the other being Jani Hakanpaa).

In terms of xGF/60, Dougie’s is through the roof, coming in at just below and even value of 4 at even strength and just shy of 3 on the powerplay, but we already knew Dougie is an elite offensive defenseman who not only quarterbacks the Canes’ first powerplay unit, but drives offense at even strength, too.

In terms of his partnership with Jaccob Slavin, I suppose it is quite a bit of a hot take to say that Dougie makes Slavin better, not the other way around. That is, until you take a look at their stats both together and apart from one another.

Slavin and Dougie’s xGF% stat together as a unit is 57.2%. Slavin apart from Dougie turns in a 50.9% xGF%, while Dougie apart from Slavin turns in a 59.5%; this shows that while Slavin does, indeed, carry the burden of the defensive responsibility in their partnership, Dougie’s offensive capabilities are perhaps a bit dulled while playing alongside Slavin, and Slavin’s offensive efforts are perhaps a bit dulled when playing without Dougie.

This isn’t to say Slavin carried Dougie or vice versa, but perhaps a bit of the opposite. They are both still incredibly effective at both protecting leads and generating leads when they play together, and are arguably one of the top (if not the top) defensive pairings in the entire NHL at the moment; this might be exactly why Slavin flat-out told us that he wants Dougie back.

If we look at what players are out there via trade or upcoming UFAs or RFAs in Free Agency that the Carolina Hurricanes could make a bid or offersheet for, there aren’t many options available.

Tyson Barrie is an upcoming UFA, and is, in my opinion, the closest player available that could come anywhere close to being a stand-in for Dougie if the Canes do, indeed, lose him.

Barrie is much more effective on the powerplay than during even strength, but it still about as effective as Dougie’s shadow when it comes to both offensive production and defensive reliability.

Barrie is also set to be overpaid when it comes to free agency anyways, so you’d be looking at paying Barrie something close to $6M AAV on a 3-5 year deal, as opposed to paying Dougie close to $7.5M-$8M on a 5-7 year deal. Barrie is also 2 years older than Dougie, and sports a WAR (wins above replacement) value of 15%, while Dougie’s WAR is 98%.

Barring a blockbuster trade sending a guy like Cale Makar or Adam Fox to Carolina, losing Dougie in any fashion, whether it be a sign-and-trade type deal, or just letting him walk in free agency for nothing, the Canes lose every single time.

Long story short, Dougie might take more penalties than he should, and might make a defensive misstep here and there, but the fact remains that the Carolina Hurricanes will be a worse team without him, regardless of who they use as his replacement. He might not pass the eye test 100% of the time, but his individual analytics are gaudy enough to warrant giving him the benefit of the doubt.

If Jaccob Slavin himself wants Dougie Hamilton back on this team and on his right-hand side, you should, too.