Carolina Hurricanes: The Jekyll and Hyde Season of Jake Gardiner

The Carolina Hurricanes have signed Jake Gardiner as a free agent in August to a 4-year deal worth 16.2 million, but his season has been strange, to say the least.

So, he has had some ups and downs, and this season for Jake Gardiner and as someone who will die on the hill of analytics, I cannot explain why it wasn’t better, but here we are. So, how has Jake Gardiner done in his first season in Raleigh?

There is no simple way of saying this, so let’s dive in. Gardiner, offensively at least, has been as good as anyone on the blueline. I don’t think that anyone will argue with that. In his last 2 games with the team, he has 5 points.

However, there’s also been a lot of criticism towards him for a lack of production, and although I understand it, at some point the numbers suggest his stick maybe the snake that keeps biting him.

His expected goals for per 60 minutes of ice time is through the roof. All the analytics suggest that his production should have been through the roof. So what can cause the disagreement between the production and the analytics in this manner? It could be a reflection of the players he’s on the ice with. Carolina is a very top-heavy offensive core. Does that play a part or does this guy sleep under a ladder?

So, offensively I do think it’s fair to say he’s streaky, but he’s been more of an asset than a liability. Defensively is where the discussion gets fun and interesting. Gardiner’s defense has always been his weakness. You’re never going to see him in the discussion for the Rod Langway award, but he’s not a turnstile. Does he make mistakes? Yes. Is he outright bad defensively? No.

At 5v5, Gardiner is more of a liability than an asset, but it’s very, very slight speaking from the numerical perspective. I’m speaking a 3% difference with him to without him.

To show you how slight that is, Gardiner adds 24% threat to the Hurricanes offense when he’s on the ice vs when he’s not. So, if his defense isn’t horrific and he’s good offensively, why has his season been underwhelming?

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As I stated previously, there is no underlying mathematical explanation for what’s going on with Gardiner. Maybe it was just that he needed time to settle into a new system. Maybe it’s his back, after having an operation on it in the summer, maybe it didn’t heal right? Maybe it’s just that there was an issue with new teammates and getting settled?

So why do people love to hate on Jake? Mainly, it’s because of the most hated stat in the NHL. He is a -24. That is the one knock on everything Gardiner had done. His totals weren’t bad, his numbers were down, not catastrophic. People love to accuse him of being defensively garbage because of that -24, and it just doesn’t reflect how good Gardiner has been.

Question for Cardiac Cane readers: What did you think of Jake Gardiner’s 1st season in Raleigh?