Carolina Hurricanes: Three Keys to Lowercasing the Caps

The Carolina Hurricanes Look to Extend Their Win Streak to Five Against Capitals.

Since April of 2019, the rivalry between the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes has been gaining traction. The last time that Carolina lost a game against Washington was the 6-0 shutout on April 20th, 2019. Since then, the Capitals have been unable to gain any traction against the Bunch of Jerks.

In their last four outings together, Carolina has out-scored the Capitals eighteen to eleven, and look to gain another critical two points within the tight Metropolitan Division tonight. Nine points separate Carolina and Washington (4th and 1st respectively), while only three points bridge the Hurricanes from second-place in the Division (New York Islanders, 25-10-3, 53pts).

The Hurricanes enter this contest 6-3-1 in their last ten games while dropping the divisional game against the New York Rangers the day before their last appearance versus Washington. The Capitals have faired for the worse, despite being the Division leaders, going 5-5-0 in their previous ten games, and dropping their last two of 2019.

Both teams will be coming into this contest hungry for a victory to kick-off 2020, and Washington has an impressive 16-5-1 away record, compared to Carolina’s 12-6-0 home record. Two points in this contest can potentially propel the Hurricanes into third in the Metro Division, as opposed to fourth (and first Wild Card).

Players to watch in the upcoming matchup include Teuvo Teravainen, who has four goals, nine assists against the Capitals in sixteen games, and Sebastian Aho, who has put up eight goals and nine assists in fourteen games. If James Reimer gets the nod in net, he is 5-4-2 against Washington with a 2.37 goals-against average and .930 save percentage.

Now that our head-to-head preparations are complete let’s get to those three keys!

The Carolina Hurricanes Need to Avoid the Penalty Box.

As fellow CardiacCane writer Austin Blum (@austinblum_) pointed out, the Carolina Hurricanes have had a troubling love affair with the sin bin. Three-quarters of the Hurricanes active roster have ten or more penalties in minutes (PIM) this season, with offseason acquisition Joel Edmundson leading at forty-seven.

In the last forty games, Carolina has had to defend against one-hundred and forty-six powerplays, of which they, Washington, and the New York Rangers lead the league. Of those, Carolina has given up only twenty-six goals, giving them an 82.2% penalty kill rate, which stands at eleventh overall league-wide. Every penalty called against Carolina can turn into a dagger as we know what comes with it.

Alex Ovechkin goes to his office and scores. Ovi has found twine nine times on the man advantage this year, six of those on the road, making him one of the deadlier special teams assets on the Capitals roster. During the 2018 All-Star Game, Alex broke the long-standing slap shot speed record, registering one at 101.3 miles per hour (163 kilometers per hour), a shot you don’t want to block.

The more that Carolina can stay out of the box, the fewer opportunities that Ovechkin will have to put that monstrous slap shot into play. Ovi isn’t the only strong point on the Capitals powerplay unit either, as they have scored twenty-seven times in one-hundred and twenty-seven opportunities. That number translates to an approximate one-in-five chance of scoring on the man advantage.

The Carolina Hurricanes Need to Capitalize (Pun Intended) on Washington’s Shortcomings.

As seen in the two team’s last four outings, the Washington Capitals have problems when on the defense. It translates into a strong forecheck and dogged backcheck. The more pressure that the Carolina Hurricanes can place on Washington, the better. Turnovers, takeaways, and good old fashioned putting bodies into the glass.

By keeping the Capitals on their toes, Carolina won’t face nearly the shot volume they traditionally do. In the two games this season, Washington has averaged thirty-two shots per game, while not an overwhelming amount, it has translated to six goals-against. Both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer in the first half of the season have had wild up-and-down games, and large shot volumes on a down night can translate to multiple goals against.

It also lowers the risk of injuries from shots blocked by Carolina’s A-plus defensive corps. As mentioned in the last slide, Alex Ovechkin can put some serious power behind a six-ounce piece of rubber (348.83 [rounded to nearest hundredth] Joules of kinetic energy). The Hurricanes Top Four defense pairings combine for a total of two-hundred, and forty-two blocked shots in forty games, so injury by puck is less a question of if, but when.

By controlling the puck, the Hurricanes will keep the Capitals from playing to their special teams’ strengths, which accounted for two of the four goals a week ago. At even-strength, the Capitals have been readily outplayed by the Canes and is a must for Carolina to take the win against Washington to start the new year.

Carolina Hurricanes Powerplay Goals Mean Bo-Berry Biscuits. Mmm. Biscuits.

It’s no secret that the Carolina Hurricanes have a functional powerplay this season, especially to the Washington Capitals. Carolina currently sits sixth in the National Hockey League (NHL) with a conversion rate of 28.3%, tied for with the Saint Louis Blues. Against the Washington Capitals this season? It’s a staggering 28.6%. In one-hundred and twenty-six attempts, the Canes have found twine thirty times.

Of the thirty-one teams in the NHL, only four teams have scored more powerplay goals than the Hurricanes: Edmonton, Vancouver, Tampa Bay, and Boston. In both contests this season against Washington, the Hurricanes have converted on the man advantage, and they should continue to. The Capitals, while third in penalty kill (84.9%) league-wide, are at an 81.8% defend rate against the clicking Carolina special team units.

Lucas Wallmark tallied the lone powerplay goal in December 28th’s contest, with Erik Haula finding the mark on October 5th. It would come as no surprise if the Hurricanes were to convert at least once in tonight’s contest. Powerplay goal leader for the Hurricanes is split between Sebastian Aho and Andrei “Lacrosse” Svechnikov, each with five powerplay goals.

It would not come as a surprise to any of us if Svech were to give us a show with his third lacrosse-style goal of the season coming on the powerplay. No matter who it is, the Hurricanes need to keep their powerplay clicking and scoring against the Capitals, as it has been an integral component of both this season’s wins.