Carolina Hurricanes: Point Projections at the 30-Game Mark

RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 05: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) celebrates his goal at the end of the OT period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the New York Rangers on December 5th, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 05: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) celebrates his goal at the end of the OT period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the New York Rangers on December 5th, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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RALEIGH, NC – DECEMBER 05: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) celebrates his goal at the end of the OT period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the New York Rangers on December 5th, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC – DECEMBER 05: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) celebrates his goal at the end of the OT period of the Carolina Hurricanes game versus the New York Rangers on December 5th, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

After a 6-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild, the Carolina Hurricanes are a full 30 games into the season.  How are their top scorers doing and what sort of pace are they on?

The Carolina Hurricanes currently hold the 9th best offense in the NHL.  The team has seen some strong starts, none more impressive than that of sophomore winger Andrei Svechnikov.  They’ve also managed to score 4 or more goals in 12 of their 30 games (40%).  Their record in those games?  12-0.

I will concede that 4 of those contests went into overtime (including a shootout against the Montreal Canadiens on opening night) but the fact remains that the Hurricanes fare very well when their offense is clicking.  When it isn’t, well, things are far less rosy.

In the 12 games where they’ve been held to 2 or fewer goals, the Hurricanes record falls to 3-9.  Another point of reference?  Okay, I’ll be glad to provide one.  In those 12 games that saw the Hurricanes put up 4 or more goals, their power play connected at 37.5% (12-32).

That is outstanding.  Less so?  In the dozen games where they’ve managed 2 or fewer goals, the Hurricanes’ power play fizzled, clipping out at 10.5% (4-38).

That’s a pretty drastic swing and it highlights the inconsistency that the Hurricanes have battled through.  That said, this article isn’t meant to be a downer.  Instead, let’s take a look at the team’s leading scorers and see where they’re projected to finish, based on their current performance.  For contrast, we’ll also look at the stats from their career years.

RALEIGH, NC – MARCH 24: Andrei Svechnikov #37 of the Carolina Hurricanes scores the game winning goal in overtime and is congratulated by teammate Teuvo Teravainen #86 during an NHL game agains the Montreal Canadiens on March 24, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC – MARCH 24: Andrei Svechnikov #37 of the Carolina Hurricanes scores the game winning goal in overtime and is congratulated by teammate Teuvo Teravainen #86 during an NHL game agains the Montreal Canadiens on March 24, 2019 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen

Let’s kick things off with the Hurricanes’ top two scorers.  Andrei Svechnikov exploded out of the gate this season, racking up a 9 game point streak and posting 11 multi-point games.  Thirty games in and the 19-year-old is second on the team in goals and assists and sports the lead in total points.

Just how important is Svechnikov to his team’s success?  In the 10 games which he has failed to record a point, the Hurricanes record is 2-7-1.  Their record when he records at least one point?  16-4.  What about the games where he’s recorded 2 or more points?  11-0.  The Hurricanes have absolutely lived and died by Svechnikov’s performance.

Let’s take a look at the numbers (career year, current totals, projection):

LW. Carolina Hurricanes. ANDREI SVECHNIKOV. LW. <ul> <li><strong>2018-19:</strong> 82GP; 20g; 17a; 37p</li> <li><strong>2019-20:</strong> 30GP; 13g; 19a; 32p</li> <li><strong>Projection:</strong> 82GP; 36g; 52a; 88p</li> </ul>

That’s a pretty strong sophomore season.  The caveat is that Svechnikov is currently sporting a 15.7% shooting percentage, a full 5% higher than his rookie season.  While it’s possible he maintains something close to it, it’s likely that marks dips a bit over the remainder of the season.

Teuvo Teravainen has continued to be his reliable self, making incredible passes and playing in all situations.  Teravainen has put together two separate 5 game point streaks and, in many ways, is the catalyst of the Hurricanes’ attack.

A cerebral playmaker with a high hockey I.Q., he has the tendency to look for a pass before shooting which limits his goal-scoring, however, his passing is arguably the best this team has seen since Ray Whitney was here.

TEUVO TERAVAINEN. RW. <ul> <li><strong>2018-19:</strong> 82GP; 21g; 55a; 76p</li> <li><strong>2019-20: </strong>30GP; 7g; 22a; 29p</li> <li><strong>Projection:</strong> 82gp; 19g; 60a; 79p</li> </ul>. RW. Carolina Hurricanes

Let’s take a look at our next two top scorers.

RALEIGH, NC – FEBRUARY 01: Carolina Hurricanes Center Sebastian Aho (20) is congratulated by Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (19) after scoring during a game between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC on February 1, 2019. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC – FEBRUARY 01: Carolina Hurricanes Center Sebastian Aho (20) is congratulated by Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (19) after scoring during a game between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC on February 1, 2019. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Dougie Hamilton and Sebastian Aho

What a difference a year makes.  Dougie Hamilton got off to a bit of a slow start in his first season with the Carolina Hurricanes.  Through the first 30 games of the 2018-19 season, Hamilton’s stat line was nothing to write home about:  3 goals and 7 assists for 10 points.

We learned that an injury slowed him and he did pick up the pace, adding 29 points over the remaining 52 games and carrying that into the playoffs.  This season has seen Hamilton nearly triple his output compared to the same stretch last season, firmly entrenching him as a key offensive weapon for the Hurricanes.

Already boasting two separate 6 game point streaks, Hamilton has scored in all but 10 of Carolina’s games so far (I’m sensing a pattern here).  Point of fact: through 30 games, Hamilton has as many power-play points as he had total points a year ago.  No, that’s not a typo, I promise you.

<ul> <li><strong>2016-17: </strong>82GP; 13g; 37a; 50p</li> <li><strong>2019:20: </strong>30GP; 10g; 18a; 28p</li> <li><strong>Projection: </strong>82GP; 27g; 49a; 76p</li> </ul>. D. Carolina Hurricanes. DOUGIE HAMILTON. D

Fresh off of a 3 goal, 5 point performance against the Minnesota Wild, it’s easy to forget that Sebastian Aho notched just 4 points in his first 10 games this season.  Since then he’s picked up 23 points in 20 games, including 7 multi-point games.

It’s also easy to overlook the fact that Aho is currently just 2 points behind last season’s pace.  Visibly frustrated near the end of a 2-0 loss to the Boston Bruins, Aho expects more of himself, probably more than anyone else.  Thankfully, the young Finn has been able to channel that discontent and looks to be heating up as 2019 draws towards its close.

C. <ul> <li><strong>2018-19: </strong>82GP; 30g; 53a; 83p</li> <li><strong>2019-20: </strong>30GP; 16g; 11a; 27p</li> <li><strong>Projection: </strong>82GP; 44g; 30a; 74p</li> </ul>. C. Carolina Hurricanes. SEBASTIAN AHO

At first blush, a 9 point drop seems a little upsetting.  Two things make this stand out more: Aho’s consistent year-over-year improvement and his importance to the success of the team.  That said, if the Hurricanes find more consistency, I believe Aho’s numbers will continue to improve.  Plus, with his spot in the offensive hierarchy and his sheer skill, assists will come.

Now, let’s take a look at the two players tied for the fifth-leading scorer spot.

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 03: Carolina Hurricanes left wing Ryan Dzingel (18) and Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) get ready for a defensive zone face-off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Carolina Hurricanes on December 3, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 03: Carolina Hurricanes left wing Ryan Dzingel (18) and Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) get ready for a defensive zone face-off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Carolina Hurricanes on December 3, 2019, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Ryan Dzingel and Jaccob Slavin

Ryan Dzingel was added to bring offensive depth to the Carolina Hurricanes, and he’s done a perfectly serviceable job of that so far.  He’s been a bit streaky since picking up points in 3 of the Hurricanes’ first 5 games, but he’s not here to be “The Guy” so a little of that is acceptable.

He’s currently on pace for 113 shots, which would be his lowest total since his 30-game rookie season.  Along with that, Dzingel’s current shooting percentage sits at 11.9%.  That’s not bad, but it’s nearly 3% below his career average.  Much can be attributed to his bouncing around the lineup but you can credit his uneven performance for that and I’m not here to play “The Chicken or the Egg.”

LW. <ul> <li><strong>2018-19: </strong>78GP; 26g; 30a; 56p</li> <li><strong>2019-20: </strong>30GP; 5g; 12a; 17p</li> <li><strong>Projection: </strong>82GP; 14g; 33a; 47p</li> </ul>. LW. Carolina Hurricanes. RYAN DZINGEL

That’s not a hideous drop-off from his career season and it’s possible that, if he takes better quality shots, he could notch a few more goals.  The fact that his mentality is to continue working instead of sulking bodes well for him.

Is anyone surprised to see Jaccob Slavin here?  He’s gotten better and better every year since breaking into the league in 2015-16.  The defensive pair of Slavin and Hamilton has been phenomenal for the Hurricanes as both players’ strengths complement each other without becoming a hindrance.

Carolina Hurricanes. JACCOB SLAVIN. D. <ul> <li><strong>2016-17: </strong>82GP; 5g; 29a; 34p</li> <li><strong>2019-20: </strong>30GP; 3g; 14a; 17p</li> <li><strong>Projection: </strong>82GP; 8g; 38a; 46p</li> </ul>. D

Those aren’t the flashiest offensive numbers for a defenseman but, when coupled with his world-class defensive play, they should put Slavin firmly in the Norris discussion.

RALEIGH, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Carolina Hurricanes Center Erik Haula (56) talks with Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing Martin Necas (88) during a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Carolina Hurricanes on November 1, 2019 at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Carolina Hurricanes Center Erik Haula (56) talks with Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing Martin Necas (88) during a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Carolina Hurricanes on November 1, 2019 at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Honorable Mentions

Martin Necas

At the time of writing, Necas has missed the past 4 games with a lower-body injury.  A recent tweet from Michael Smith indicates that Necas could return at some point during the Hurricanes’ upcoming Western Canada road trip.  Let’s say he comes back against Vancouver on Thursday, giving Necas an additional few days to recover.

  • 2019-20: 26GP; 6g; 10a; 16p
  • Projection: 77GP; 18g; 30a; 48p

Erik Haula

Haula is a little more difficult to pinpoint.  In a December 2 interview, Carolina general manager Don Waddell indicated that Haula’s absence is due to tendonitis, which is good, though it could be something that reappears during the season.  With that in mind, I’ll be a little more conservative with games played.  After all, this is just for fun.

More from Cardiac Cane

  • 2019-20: 16GP; 8g; 3a; 11p
  • Projection: 60GP; 30g; 11a; 41p

Warren Foegele

Foegele, barring catastrophe, will best the career highs he set last season (77GP; 10g;5a;15p).  The real question is where he best fits into the lineup.  His tenacity is unquestioned but playing in the top six means that the offense has to be there.

  • 2019-20: 30GP; 4g; 7a; 11p
  • Projection: 82GP; 11g; 19a; 30p

Nino Niederreiter

Unlike Necas and Haula, Niederreiter has been healthy.  Unlike Foegele, his offensive talent is a known commodity.  That said, the Swiss winger has struggled mightily.  He came into the December 7 match against Minnesota on an 8-game point skid before picking up an assist in Carolina’s victory.

  • 2019-20: 30GP; 3g; 8a; 11p
  • Projection: 82GP; 8g; 22a; 30p

How do you feel about the Carolina Hurricanes’ offense?  Which players do you think will hit their projections?  Who do you think might fall off?  Can anyone donate a tendon to Erik Haula?

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