Despite his affiliations with a certain team in the Big Apple, there's little denying that Adam Fox has become a very good NHL defenseman. As a New York Ranger, Fox is a staple on the blue line, putting up big numbers and donning an "A" for the organization. It feels like just yesterday that Fox was a prospect for the Carolina Hurricanes.
Fox's story begins with his selection in the third round by the Calgary Flames in 2016. He'd been good with the U.S. National Team Development Program, opting to continue his journey at Harvard University. After two years and a dwindling chance that Fox would sign in Calgary, the Flames traded his signing rights to the Hurricanes on Day 2 of the 2018 Draft in the Dougie Hamilton deal.
General Manager Don Waddell appeared confident the Hurricanes could make Fox a member of the blue line, though Fox opted for a third year in college. Over the next year, Fox made it clear he wasn't destined for Raleigh either. The Hobey Baker finalist seemingly told the Canes it was New York or nowhere. Instead of losing his rights for nothing, Waddell shipped him to New York for two draft picks.
At the surface, Fox's motivations are understandable. He grew up in New York and was a Rangers fan. Getting to play for your favorite team is always cool. However, you can't help but call this a prima donna move by Fox and his team. He worked the system to get what he wanted without proving a thing in the NHL. He's not the first, and he won't be the last.
It worked out well for Fox and the Rangers once he signed his entry-level contract. In six seasons, Fox has 369 points in 431 games, topping 70 points in three straight seasons from 2021 to 2024. He's a two-time All-Star, a two-time Norris Trophy finalist, and a one-time Norris Trophy winner, taking the crown during the shortened 2021 campaign. He'll likely represent the U.S. at the Olympics in 2026.
For all of Fox's accomplishments with the Rangers, what if he had never forced his way onto his childhood team? What if the Hurricanes maintained Fox's signing rights, and he was willing to sign with them? How differently would the team look over the last six years? Suffice it to say, there might be a decision or two that would be different.
Adam Fox signs with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2019
Before the 2019-20 season, the Hurricanes had a slight logjam on the right side of the defense. With four NHL-quality defensemen on the roster, the Canes needed to make a move. That's exactly what they did, trading Justin Faulk to the St. Louis Blues for a package featuring Joel Edmundson. In this new timeline, that still happens.
The new timeline deviates with Adam Fox signing his three-year entry-level deal to become a member of the Hurricanes before the start of the season. After impressing during training camp, Fox finds his way onto the roster. His addition likely forces the organization to choose between Haydn Fleury and Trevor van Riemsdyk. Here's how I'd have the defensive pairs for Opening Night in 2019:
Left | Right |
|---|---|
Jaccob Slavin | Dougie Hamilton |
Jake Gardiner | Brett Pesce |
Joel Edmundson | Adam Fox |
Dougie Hamilton's January injury gives Fox a chance to play with Jaccob Slavin for the first time. Having Fox in the lineup also makes the Canes' deadline plans interesting. At the 2020 deadline, they acquired Vincent Trocheck, Brady Skjei, and Sami Vatanen in separate trades. The Trocheck deal still happens, as does the Skjei deal with New York, but the Canes might not need to bring in Vatanen now.
The Hurricanes returned to play in the Toronto bubble with Hamilton healthy and ready to go, giving the team an incredible surplus to face the Rangers. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that Fox's presence helps them beat the Bruins in the first round, too, but that's diving too deep into the unknown.
Jaccob Slavin and Adam Fox might've become the best pair in the league
The team rolls into the 2021 season with the same defensive right side, so the next big change comes with Hamilton's departure to New Jersey for the 2021-22 season. This is when the pairing of Slavin and Fox solidifies itself. The team isn't likely to sign Tony DeAngelo, who spent the season at Slavin's side. I still think the team signs Jalen Chatfield before he became a reliable third-pair option.
It would be around this time that the team would need to consider a long-term extension for Fox. The Rangers signed him to a seven-year, $66.5 million deal ($9.5m AAV) in 2021 before he became an RFA. Assuming he's still acting as a productive defenseman on the ice, running one of the two power-play units, Fox would've likely earned a seven-or eight-year deal with the Hurricanes by then.
One of the bigger changes to the timeline is that there would now be no reason to bring in Brent Burns. The team has Slavin-Fox, Skjei-Pesce, and de Haan-Chatfield to get them through, so the Canes never bring in the Norris Trophy winner. The Canes likely can't afford Dmitry Orlov during the 2023 offseason, meaning they'd need another lefty on a cheaper deal.
Without Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Dmitry Orlov, and Brent Burns on the roster for 2024-25, the Canes are trying to figure a lot of things out. Fortunately, the team brings in two defensemen, Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker, to fill some holes. It leaves them with a spot open on the left side, though Ty Smith hops in there before Alexander Nikishin's impending arrival.
The final thing to address is the Hurricanes' offseason moves this summer to the defense. With Fox in the lineup and Nikishin's role improving, the Canes do not need to trade for K'Andre Miller. They already have their group in place, and they have Scott Morrow as a potential 7th man, unless they still trade him. Assuming no more moves are made, this is how they'd look on Opening Night this season.
Left | Right |
|---|---|
Jaccob Slavin | Adam Fox |
Shayne Gostisbehere | Sean Walker |
Alexander Nikishin | Jalen Chatfield |
Along with all of the personnel changes on defense, Fox's career slightly deviates from how we've seen it materialize. He likely doesn't win the Norris Trophy in 2021, though he might have a case for one once Hamilton clears out. He might have multiple, depending on how he plays. This also likely leads to greater team success, like a possible Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
At the end of the day, I don't think the Hurricanes and Adam Fox were meant to be. They tried their best to get a deal done, but their best couldn't overcome Fox's desire to play in his home state for his favorite team. That's his prerogative, and it has led to plenty of success for him. I think a little patience and a fresh perspective would've done him some good, but that's one man's opinion.