I can hear the collective groans and Twitter fingers getting riled up about this, so I'll try to tread lightly on this subject. There are two "holes" that most commentators and talking heads feel the Carolina Hurricanes still have. The first is their second-line center, which I agree still needs an upgrade. The other is on the right side of the defense, with only two right-handed defenders on the roster.
With slim pickings remaining in free agency, the trade market, which has been bubbling over for most of the offseason, is the most likely place to fill either spot. Erik Karlsson to the Carolina Hurricanes has been a popular pairing this offseason, with many major sites pondering what a marriage between the two teams could look like.
The player involved isn't a slouch either. Across his 16 NHL seasons with Ottawa, San Jose, and Pittsburgh, Erik Karlsson is a three-time Norris Trophy winner (2012, 2015, 2023), a five-time finalist, and a seven-time All-Star. He has 200 goals and 870 points in 1,084 games, including a 101-point season in 2023, making him one of the most prolific offensive defensemen in NHL history.
He's also seen decent success in the postseason, especially during his last two trips. With the Senators in 2017, Karlsson had 18 points (2G, 16A) in 19 games as the Senators fell one game short of the Stanley Cup Final. Two seasons later in San Jose, Karlsson had 16 points (2G, 14A) in 19 games, again falling in the conference finals.
Pittsburgh's asking price might be the toughest hurdle to clear
When the Penguins acquired Karlsson from the Sharks in 2023, San Jose retained 13.04% of his $11.5 million cap hit. This meant Pittsburgh was on the hook for $10 million for four seasons. Two years later, the Penguins might ship him out. General Manager Kyle Dubas remains firm that Pittsburgh won't retain much of Karlsson's salary in a potential deal.
Theoretically, the Hurricanes could take on Karlsson's entire cap hit with over $10 million in space remaining. It becomes a little easier, depending on who is included in a potential deal. The math gets a little tougher for 2026-27, with a potential Alexander Nikishin extension being the biggest question remaining for the team next offseason.
I'm less concerned about Karlsson's age and fit with the Hurricanes, especially since it would likely only be for two years. Obviously, he'd be paired with Jaccob Slavin, who has dealt with a few one-dimensional right-handed defensemen over the last seven years. He'd actually be a younger replacement for Brent Burns at 35 years old. Injury history would be another major concern.
What a potential deal between the Canes and the Pens might look like?
If the Hurricanes are dealing for a right-handed defenseman, it only makes sense for them to trade one from their surplus of lefties. Jaccob Slavin is untouchable, Alexander Nikishin might be the future, and they just acquired and signed K'Andre Miller for a long time. That leaves Shayne Gostisbehere as the odd man out.
Gostisbehere, like Karlsson, has two years left on his contract, carrying a $3.2 million cap hit each season. It makes sense for the Penguins, too. Gostisbehere can quarterback their first power play, and he put up similar per-game numbers as Karlsson last season for considerably less money. The only thing to navigate would be his 15-team no-trade list.
The rest of the return is dependent on a few factors. If Pittsburgh retains money, there might need to be a little added to the deal. Otherwise, I can't imagine the Hurricanes bartering their future for two seasons of Erik Karlsson. That's why I opted for Noel Gunler and a first-round pick to complete the return.
Gunler, who was drafted 41st overall in 2020, feels stuck behind several other prospects in the organization. He's a little older at 23, but he could be ready to make the jump to the NHL soon in the correct situation. The Hurricanes don't have much draft capital this season, with only three picks. They could opt to send their 2027 pick, or one of their two selections in 2028.
Is this return likely to be sufficient to move the needle for the Penguins? Admittedly, no. They're going to want more. However, they need to decide whether holding onto Karlsson's contract as he gets older is a large enough chip. The time to move Karlsson is now, especially with Pittsburgh likely to be at the bottom of the division again this season. I hear Gavin McKenna is pretty good, too.
If we're being totally honest, I don't see the Hurricanes trading for Karlsson this offseason. This feels like a splashy move at the trade deadline, or possibly next offseason if he's still with the Penguins. Making this move could be a huge gamble for the Hurricanes. Fortunately, it wouldn't be a franchise-altering bust if it doesn't pan out. Might this be a risk Eric Tulsky is willing to take?