Top 3 reasons the Carolina Hurricanes will win in Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs
The Carolina Hurricanes are facing a New York Islanders team that came out of nowhere to finish third in the Atlantic Division.
The Carolina Hurricanes shouldn’t underestimate the New York Islanders, but there is no doubt that they have a few huge advantages coming into this contest. And it goes far beyond a superior points total, in which the Canes finished with 17 more than New York.
Carolina also held the advantage in a season series that saw them collect two wins, a regulation loss, and one overtime loss against their Metropolitan Division rival, good for five points. While they gave up a rather alarming 3.5 goals against New York, they also averaged 4.00 goals for.
In the game they played one another following the trade deadline, Carolina more than got the best of New York in a 4-1 win. It was an outing that saw then-newcomer Jake Guentzel record a pair of assists and an empty-net goal while Evgeny Kuznetsov chipped in for an assist.
But recent history isn’t the only reason Carolina is going into this series with an advantage. Let’s discuss three reasons why the Hurricanes should get the best of New York in Round 1.
Special teams will go a long way in this series for Carolina
Carolina turned in one of the best power play units in the league, scoring 26.91 percent of their opportunities, which was exactly six percent above the NHL average this season. Meanwhile, they’re facing one of the worst penalty kill units in hockey, as the Islanders stifled opposing man advantages just 71.49 percent of the time.
For context, they finished nearly eight percent below the league average, so the Hurricanes 5-on-4 unit should score time and again when they get their chances. The only real caveat here is that the Isles scored 10 shorthanded goals this season, and the Canes gave up eight - one more than the NHL average.
New York’s power play also wasn’t great, converting just 20.35 percent of the time, or nearly 0.6 percent below the NHL average. As for Carolina’s penalty kill unit, it was one of the best in hockey, stopping opposing power play units 86.43 percent of the time, well over seven percent above average.
Ilya Sorokin (or Semyon Varlamov) can’t do everything himself
Ilya Sorokin’s year wasn’t as bad as his numbers looked. Check out his basic stats, and you would think Sorokin had more than just a down season, as he finished the year with a 0.908 save percentage and a 3.01 GAA, but he also faced 32.53 shots on goal per game, one of the higher marks in the league.
The 28-year-old won’t win or even contend for the Vezina this season, thanks to the fact he lost 12 games in overtime and recorded just two shutouts. By contrast, he blanked opponents 13 times in the past two seasons combined, but the Isles were also better defensively in both campaigns.
While his actual goals allowed at even strength weren’t anywhere near what they were in the past, he still finished the year with one below an xGA of 122 at 121, further signifying a good season. But as much as Sorokin had bailed out the Islanders, they did little to help him this year. And in playoff hockey against one of the Eastern Conference’s best teams, there is no way he’s bailing them out in four out of the potential seven contests.
Overall, Carolina’s scorers are too good, and there is a good chance they will log something much higher than the 32.53 shots on goal Sorokin faced this season.
Update: Semyon Varlamov will be in the net for at least Game 1.
Isles have a “playoff hockey” identity, but they aren’t a good team
Next to the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers, the Metropolitan Division had no good teams, and the Isles were the best out of a bad bunch. That said, they have the “look” of a team raring to play playoff hockey, as they are one of the most physical groups in the league, with an underrated group of scorers in their top-six.
But their inconsistencies all season, albeit a six-game winning streak that got them back into the playoff conversation and strong finish, including an 8-0-1 mark in April 2024, have haunted this team all season. Remember, the Isles went 2-7-1 between their six-game streak and their 8-0-1 stint.
They also went 3-7-3 in January, and before winning their final two games in February, New York was 3-3-2 that month. Overall, Carolina was the more consistent team throughout the entire season, while New York has been nothing but streaky - including a 5-0-2 start to December.
It’s possible the Isles keep up their big winning streaks, or at least points streaks in Round 1 of the 2024 playoffs. But if recent history implies anything, it’s that New York has yet to show they can be anything more than elite or abysmal, depending on what team decides to show up. Unfortunately for them, they’re coming into the postseason following an ‘elite’ cycle, which doesn’t bode well.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)