When the Carolina Hurricanes took the ice against the Montreal Canadiens at PNC Arena on March 7, 2024, there was already a reason to be excited. Frederik Andersen was making his first start in over four months after being sidelined by blood clotting issues. The Canes won the game, 4-1, with Brady Skjei scoring twice and Andersen making 24 stops to earn the win.
However, it might've been the second most exciting thing to happen that day. Excitement grew to pandemonium when it was announced that the Hurricanes had made a blockbuster move within the division. The Canes acquired Jake Guentzel and Ty Smith from the Penguins for Michael Bunting, Vasiliy Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, and a pair of conditional picks in the 2024 Draft.
Injured at the time of the deal, Guentzel made his debut five days later, and it was a match made in heaven. Playing on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, he formed immediate chemistry with his linemates, and the results were beautiful. In 17 games, Guentzel had 25 points, posting more than a few players who'd been with the Canes all season.
Guentzel kept the party rolling into the playoffs, recording four goals and nine points in 11 games. However, it wasn't enough to get them past the Metropolitan Division champion New York Rangers in the second round. It was a sour end to an otherwise great season, but things were only going to get tougher for the Canes and their deadline acquisition.
By all accounts, Guentzel wanted to stay in Raleigh. The Hurricanes presented him with an extension to make that happen, but it wasn't enough to get the job done. Instead of losing him for nothing, the team traded his signing rights to the Tampa Bay Lightning on the day before free agency began, allowing him to sign a seven-year, $63 million deal ($9m AAV).
I'm not sure if I've ever spoken about my thoughts on the Guentzel negotiations, but this felt like a massive and rare miss for the Canes' front office. It's light years worse than the Mikko Rantanen saga. That clearly didn't work. Guentzel in Carolina felt like a no-brainer. He complemented and elevated two of your top stars. Keeping him around should've been the team's top priority.
Still, all things considered, the Canes won this deal. Bunting was traded to Nashville the following season. Ponomarev played seven games for Pittsburgh in 2024-25 before leaving for Russia. Lucius has torn up the NCAA, but he's yet to sign his entry-level contract. One of the two picks didn't convert, with the 2024 fifth-round pick only moving if the Canes won the Stanley Cup that year.
Pittsburgh can still get something out of this deal. Ville Koivunen showed flashes in 2024-25, assisting on seven goals in eight games. Things weren't as great last year, with just seven points in 39 NHL games. The real star could be defenseman Harrison Brunicke. The young defenseman was selected with the second-round pick that the Canes gave up. There's still time for him to develop.
Keeping true to this week's theme, I want to imagine a world where Guentzel and the Canes agreed to an extension. He has done well for himself in Tampa, posting back-to-back 80-point seasons, including a career-high 88 last season. Would he have seen that same level of success in Raleigh? Would he have gotten the Canes over the hump?
The Canes' top line becomes one of the most dangerous in the league
Talking about Guentzel's production also means discussing how this would've impacted Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. From March 12 through the end of the season, Aho had 11 goals, seven of which saw Guentzel earn the primary helper, and eight assists. He fell two goals shy of tying his career high (37) while blowing past his previous best in points (89).
However, no player benefited more from Guentzel's arrival than Jarvis. While he might've had slightly fewer points than Aho during that stretch (17), he scored 13 times over the final month to record his first of three consecutive 30-goal seasons. Guentzel assisted on nine of them in some capacity. The Canes' power play thrived, too, converting almost 30 percent of the time in 17 games.
Excluding the contract extensions that the Canes gave to Jarvis, Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin, and Martin Necas that summer, the team spent a little over $14 million in free agency to sign Eric Robinson, Jack Roslovic, William Carrier, Tyson Jost, Sean Walker, and Shayne Gostisbehere. Re-signing Guentzel would've taken a significant chunk of that money.
If the Canes gave Guentzel the same deal that Tampa Bay did (7x$9m), it likely means you're picking between Walker or Gostisbehere, not signing one of Robinson or Jost, and not bringing in Roslovic. I still think Carrier and Robinson come over, and the Canes prioritize Gostisbehere's previous fit over Walker, so they're your big additions for the summer.
It also puts Necas in an interesting situation. The Canes nearly traded Necas to Columbus at the 2024 Draft for the fourth pick, but it fell through. Guentzel's leaving made the Canes reverse course, giving Necas a bridge deal. While he was on the roster to open the 2024-25 season, we had the big trade in January, and history knows what happens. If Guentzel stays, it probably doesn't.
Just for fun, let's say that the Hurricanes trade Necas to Columbus for the pick. Not only are they keeping Guentzel, but they're adding a potential star at the top of the draft. Columbus selected defenseman Cayden Lindstrom with the fourth pick. However, right after him, Montreal took Ivan Demidov. Can you imagine if the Canes had swooped in and taken him instead?
The Canes would've rolled into Opening Night 2024 against a Guentzel-less Tampa Bay team looking very different. They make the playoffs, to no one's surprise, but not having Necas on the roster means we don't get the "avalanche" of moves that turn in Taylor Hall or Logan Stankoven. If they make the same run to the Eastern Conference Finals, I'm not sure if they get past Florida this time, either.
It also means that the Canes' offseason plans for 2025 look different. Nikolaj Ehlers and K'Andre Miller might not be Hurricanes, but the prospect of Demidov playing a full season is pretty fun. He had a good rookie campaign in Montreal, finishing second for the Calder Trophy. He slots in on the second line, likely with Jesperi Kotkaniemi to start, with a potential deadline move for a center if needed.
When it comes to the 2026 postseason, I don't think scoring is an issue. This alternate top line needs to be more engaged and active than the present one, but I think the team still gets plenty of secondary scoring. At the very least, they make it to the Stanley Cup Final again. Whether they win is a different story. The guys the Canes would be without in this new reality played a major role.
If Guentzel stays with the Canes, I still think he posts some big numbers. I'm not saying he scores at a 120-point pace as he did at the end of the 2023-24 season, but 30-35 goals and 80-90 points wouldn't be out of the question. Aho and Jarvis likely follow suit, scoring in bunches and guiding the power play. With as much as the lines move around in Raleigh, he could've helped a ton of players.
Obviously, this is all speculation. I have no clue how much of this happens with the decision to keep one player on the roster. The Canes might've kept Necas to start the 2024-25 season and traded him elsewhere mid-season, setting in motion a completely different timeline. All of this is to say that Guentzel might've changed the course of history. For better or for worse? We'll never know.
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