The Carolina Hurricanes were riding a bit of a high after their appearance in the 2002 Stanley Cup Final. It ended with a five-game loss to an obnoxiously deep Detroit Red Wings squad, but there was reason to be excited about the organization's future after a deep run. The 2002-03 season was a sobering return to reality for the franchise.
Injuries were an issue. Several of the team's top contributors missed extensive time. Rod Brind'Amour (48 games), Erik Cole (53), and Josef Vasicek (57) were among those sorely missed. This contributed to the team finishing last in goals per game, 27th on the power play and goals allowed per game, and 28th in save percentage, despite Kevin Weekes posting a .912 save percentage and a 2.55 GAA.
All of this led to the Hurricanes finishing in the basement of the NHL at 22-43-11-6. Their .372 points percentage was, and remains, the third worst in franchise history, trailing only the 1982-83 and the 1992-93 Hartford Whalers. While they struggled through months of mediocrity, their suffering put them with the best odds to win the draft lottery that year. Obviously, that wouldn't come to fruition.
Instead, the Florida Panthers won it for the second season in a row. The Canes' division foes jumped from fourth to first, following a similar path from the year before. In 2002, the Panthers hopped from third to first. They didn't use the first pick in 2002, trading it to Columbus, who owned the third pick. Columbus selected Rick Nash, while Florida selected Ed Jovanovski.
In an identical spot for the 2003 Draft, the Panthers opted to trade down, again trading it for the third pick. This time, it was the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins leapfrogged the Canes, who maintained the second pick, to select goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Of course, Fleury went on to win the second-most games in NHL history (575), three Stanley Cups, and a Vezina Trophy, among other accolades.
The Canes didn't come out of this situation poorly, nor am I trying to imply that they did. For their trouble, they selected Eric Staal with the second pick. All he did was help transform the franchise, setting several team records, producing the only 100-point season in Canes history, leading the team in scoring during their Stanley Cup run in 2006, and having his jersey retired by the organization.
But what if the ping pong balls were in the Hurricanes' favor? What if they won the draft lottery for the first time in franchise history? Would things change, or would the Canes follow the same path, ensuring that history maintains its status quo? To illuminate the situation, it's important to discuss a little bit of context surrounding the Hurricanes at that time.
The Hurricanes did just fine with their picks in 2002 and 2003
While the Panthers were busy swapping picks at the 2002 Draft, the Hurricanes were at the bottom of the first round. With the 25th pick, the Canes selected Cam Ward. His career, while not as illustrious as Fleury's in hindsight, was still nothing to scoff at. His first win came against the Penguins, though Fleury wasn't in the crease, and he won the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup as a rookie in 2006.
If they had earned the first pick in the 2003 Draft, the most likely scenario would see the Canes picking Staal anyway. If they could coax Pittsburgh into trading for the pick and giving up another asset or two, that would've been ideal, but I think that would've been a tough sell. Ultimately, regardless of the order, Carolina and Pittsburgh get the same players.
Another reason is the glaring need that the Canes had at the time for a center. Ron Francis turned 40 during the 2003-04 season, and the rest of their centers weren't producing at high levels. Bringing in a player like Staal to play behind Rod Brind'Amour was exactly what they needed, and what they eventually got in Staal. After all, Staal and Ward are the best first-round selections in team history.
Obviously, the Hurricanes had no way of knowing that they would be selecting at the top of the 2003 Draft, nor do I think that it would've changed their plans for the draft. If they believed in Ward to be their goalie of the future, there would've been no need to select Fleury, should the opportunity present itself. Staal to Carolina felt like an inevitability.
Eliminating the variables, what might a Fleury-Ward tandem look like?
While we've highlighted the obvious scenario, let's have a little fun with it. First, let's pretend that the Canes won the first pick. Then, let's pretend that context wasn't important and that picking Ward in 2002 had no bearing on what they did in 2003. With the first pick in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft, the Carolina Hurricanes select goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, and the franchise changes forever.
Using your first pick in consecutive seasons on a goalie might not make much sense, but it would've likely given Cam Ward another season to develop, though the 2004 lockout certainly helped matters. Fleury likely gets a few looks in 2003-04, and in our alternate reality, he would've begun the 2005-06 season as the team's backup to Martin Gerber, instead of Ward.
Without Staal in the lineup, I don't see the Hurricanes winning the Stanley Cup in 2006. It's far more likely that they end up selecting early in the 2006 Draft. That class featured a few standout centers, with Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, and Nicklas Backstrom going second through fourth. Imagine if the Canes got their hands on one of them. That might have fixed a few problems down the middle.
By the 2006-07 season, a Fleury-Ward tandem could materialize and thrive, with Fleury getting the lion's share of the work. In reality, Fleury was still largely in a backup role for Pittsburgh, while Ward took complete control for the Canes after winning the Stanley Cup. Here, it's the other way around. This could prove to be a very formidable tandem for the league to solve.
Having both Fleury and Ward on the roster through the end of the 2000s and into the 2010s also eliminates the need for the team to experiment with backups. We likely never see the likes of John Grahame, Michael Leighton, Justin Peters, Manny Lagace, or Brian Boucher. It also would've given the front office a chance to use their cap space elsewhere to improve the roster.
By the early 2010s, I'm almost certain that one of the Canes' two netminders would've priced themselves out of Raleigh, leading the front office to facilitate a trade. Given Fleury's status as a #1 pick, he would take precedence over Ward. Knowing that they don't have to trade him for the sake of doing so, the Canes wait to find a trade partner for Ward, allowing Fleury to really run wild.
Of course, in an idealistic world, Fleury's career translates the same with Carolina in our fake scenario as it did in Pittsburgh for real. However, to assume so would be naive. There would've been massive differences, so there's no guarantee that the Fleury with the second-most wins in league history accomplishes the same things with the Canes. Three Stanley Cups sound pretty good, though.
In the end, if history had changed the Canes' draft position for the better in 2003, I still think that Eric Staal would've been their guy. It doesn't necessarily mean that history plays out the same way, so we'll have to accept our reality for what it is. He's one of the best to ever put on the Canes sweater, and his number will forever be immortalized in Raleigh. I don't think anyone would want to change that.
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