The puzzle pieces are slowly falling into place as we await official word on when postseason hockey will begin for the Carolina Hurricanes. All signs point to a Saturday-Monday start to the series in Raleigh, but it's all speculation at this point. What isn't speculation is which teams will be matched up, and that's what we're here to discuss today.
The Hurricanes will welcome the Ottawa Senators to town whenever the series begins, giving us a fresh matchup to open the playoffs. These two have never met in the playoffs, and the Canes won two of the three encounters this season. However, everything resets when the playoffs begin. Honestly, this is one of the toughest matchups the Canes could've asked for.
There are going to be things to watch throughout the series, but these five are areas that I'll be focused on for the Canes against the Senators. It covers a wide array of topics, and there are many of the same things that others, far more qualified than I, have been talking about. If they can crack down or expose certain parts, they might be in for a good series.
1. Embrace the physicality
If there's one thing that I'm certain of, it's that this series is going to be very fast and very physical. The Senators have several agitators on their team, led by their captain Brady Tkachuk and the "league's most punchable face" Nick Cousins. The Senators have seven players with over 100 hits, including many of their top scorers. They aren't afraid to throw their bodies around.
While it's not their game, the Hurricanes aren't ones to be pushed around. They have six players over 100 hits, led by William Carrier's 172. The big difference is that most of their best checking forwards are at the bottom of their lineup, like Carrier and Jordan Staal. If things get out of control, they have Nicolas Deslauriers in the press box to cause some chaos.
2. Who steps up in the crease?
The Hurricanes and the Senators are two of the three best shot-suppression teams in the league, ranking first and third, respectively. However, they're also two of the worst teams in save percentage. This could either mean that someone is going to get really hot in the net or that there are going to be a lot of goals scored in this series.
Linus Ullmark is the clear-cut starter for the Senators. The former Vezina winner doesn't have a sterling postseason resume, including a pair of losses to the Canes in the first round in 2022 before being benched. For the Canes, the situation is a little hazier. Frederik Andersen appears to be the front-runner to start Game 1, though both he and Brandon Bussi ended the season strongly.
3. Don't let the Senators' power play get hot
Special teams are always under a microscope during the postseason, and this year will be no exception. The Canes own one of the best power plays in the league, and their penalty kill, while a little worse than usual, is still around the Top 10. However, neither team was good on the kill during the season series. Ottawa went 4-for-9 on the power play against the Canes.
Ottawa is very respectable on the power play, but their kill is one of the worst in the league, sitting in the Bottom 10. The Canes scored three times on eight attempts, striking once in each meeting during the season series. With plenty of dangerous weapons on the Senators' roster, the Canes can't afford to give opportunities away.
4. Get a grip in the dot
Despite the season series being very close in most areas, there was one where the Senators truly dominated the Canes. That was in the face-off dot. In three games, Ottawa won nearly 60 percent of the draws. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, especially when six players on the roster took over 500 draws, and the lowest win percentage was Ridly Greig's 51 percent.
Meanwhile, the Canes come in at just over 50 percent as a team, with four players doing most of the work. Jordan Staal is the go-to guy, winning the second-most draws in the league (839). Sebastian Aho had one of his worst face-off years, winning only 50.5 percent. The real concern is Logan Stankoven, who won just over 44 percent. As a team, they need to find a way to turn it around.
5. Utilize forward depth
In some areas, the Canes and the Senators are very similar, as we have seen already. Another one of those areas is scoring depth. The Senators have 11 skaters with at least ten goals, including a pair of 30-goal scorers in Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson. They have genuine threats up front and on the back end. This team can score goals in bunches, but so too can the Hurricanes.
The Canes feature a league-high seven players with at least 20 goals, ranging from usual suspects to first-timers to Jordan Staal. They're second to Colorado in goals scored, and they're getting regular contributions from their entire lineup. Their third line features their second-leading scorer, and their second line has been consistently excellent. The Canes have depth. It's time for them to show it.
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