Canes Season Overview ’23-24: Defense Wins Championships?

Does defense win championships? Well, based off the team that he has assembled for the 2023-2024 season, GM of the Carolina Hurricanes, Don Waddell, sure seems to think so. This Canes defensive group is unlike anything that I’ve seen from a hockey club in recent memory in which the Canes have about eight to nine NHL-caliber defensemen currently on contract. A typical NHL roster will dress six defensemen per night, leaving two to three of these guys without a spot come opening night on October 11th.

Is this a good problem to have? Certainly!  There is no doubt in my mind that the Canes bolster the deepest and best overall defensive core in the National Hockey League. I know I am biased, but I would be hard-pressed to find someone who would disagree with that claim. Much like last season, I expect the Canes defenders to be responsible for a lot of this team’s success this year, on both sides of the ice.  In the 2022-23 season, the Canes had the most goals in the NHL by defenders with 59. Second place was the Panthers with 53. On the other side of the ice, the Canes defense were second only to the historic Boston Bruins team in penalty kill percentage and goals allowed per game, and they lead the NHL in fewest shots against per game. I expect a very similar performance by this defensive group this season, maybe even better.

With such a crowded defensive roster, many questions arise in the minds of Canes fans. Who will play? Who will not? Are we going to keep all of these defenders the whole season, or will we trade for an offensive player?

Let’s talk about it!

Defensive Lineup Prediction

Here is my prediction for the Canes defensive starting lineup.

Line 1: Burns – Slavin

Line 2: Skjei – Pesce

Line 3: Orlov – DeAngelo

Healthy scratches: Chatfield, Jones

Waivers: Coughlin

Five out of the six players that I have in my starting lineup are locks to start the year with the Canes (Burns, Slavin, Skjei, Pesce, Orlov). DeAngelo is the only maybe that I have, but, with that said, it is highly unlikely that Chatfield or Jones would replace him due to DeAngelo’s use on the powerplay and overall offensive upside. I’ve said it before, but it just feels wrong having Orlov on the third defensive pairing. However, the top two lines were excellent last year and have great chemistry together, and I would not want to mess with something we know already works. I do expect ; Head Coach Rod Brind’Amour and Assistant Coach Tim Gleason to get creative to find Orlov more playing time than a typical 3rd line defenseman, maybe leaving DeAngelo in a more limited role. This is an interesting approach that I think could work quite well, given the fact that all five of those players are used to playing well over 20 minutes per night.

I think that the Canes will have Jalen Chatfield and Caleb Jones as healthy scratches, keeping eight defensemen on their NHL roster. This will allow these two players to continue practicing with the team, and most importantly, neither of them will have to go through waivers, avoiding the risk of losing them to another team. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Canes having no AHL affiliate after the Chicago Wolves decided to go independent this season, it is all the more important for the Canes to keep these two players close to home. I really hate putting Chatfield outside of the starting lineup and think that he deserves to be out there night in, night out after having a stellar breakout year for the Canes last season, but this is the way that I see things most likely going.

Unfortunately, Dylan Coughlan is the odd man out, and because of his experience at the NHL level, he would have to go through waivers before reassignment to the minors, wherever that ends up being. I think it is a real possibility that Coughlan may get picked up by another team, but the Canes really don’t have another choice.

What are the Canes going to do with all these defensemen?

There is a simple answer to this question. The Canes are going to start the season and play hockey as usual. I really like how this year sets up for the Canes with all this depth on defense. Last year, the Canes defenders were able to stay relatively healthy; however, the depth that this team has right now allows for the possibility of an injury to happen to one of our defenders and to not be too hindered by such as injury. Flexibility is a good thing, especially at defense.

The Canes are also in a good place financially, having about $1million in cap space with a full roster going into the season. That means that the Canes do not need to rush into anything and make any unnecessary deals. They have the luxury of taking their time, reassessing things throughout the season and could use some of their defensive assets to help get a missing piece if needed.

Who would Canes try to get? Who would they trade?

The Canes still need some scoring support on their offense. This problem was one that we saw last year, particularly after Svechnikov was out with his knee injury. Don Waddell really did not do anything this offseason to address this issue, other than the addition of Michael Bunting, which is a step in the right direction, but it is likely not enough. If the Canes make any moves, expect it to be after a top six forward. Looking at the Canes top six, the position where the Canes could improve most would be a second line center. After a shaky start to last season, I actually thought Kotkaniemi did a pretty good job. He was a reliable center who could win faceoffs and was solid defensively, but his offensive game needs improvement. Someone I could see the Canes targeting is Elias Lindholm. Lindholm is also a very reliable center with great scoring ability. He also played for the Hurricanes for five seasons after being drafted by the team back in 2013. If the Flames have another mediocre season, I expect Lindholm to be shopped around. Another player who would certainly answer the need for more scoring is Patrick Kane, who is still a free agent and is in recovery from his hip surgery this offseason.

To get players of this caliber would be no easy feat. For Lindholm, the Canes would need to trade one of their young but proven prospects like Jack Drury or Seth Jarvis and some draft picks. During the season, it is less likely for the Canes to move a defensemen, but if there are any on defense who will be involved in trade talks, expect it to be Skjei or Pesce. Both of these players are due for contracts at the end of the year and thereby would need a sign and trade deal where a new contract extension is negotiated before the trade goes through.

For Patrick Kane, there are a couple options. Firstly, he may just take a significant pay cut. Coming back in the middle of a season and joining a team who is primed for another deep playoff run, could be enough for Kane to take a pay cut to join the team. I think the most likely scenario would involve a trade to free up cap space, again involving Pesce or Skjei, and then the Canes would be able to sign him for a price more appropriate for the future hall of famer.

Conclusion: What do I think the Canes will actually do?

Don Waddell has shown throughout his time in Carolina that he does not make big changes during the season or at the trade deadline. He likes to stick with the same group, especially if they are having success during the regular season. I expect the same to happen this year, unless the Canes are riddled with injuries to key player once again. Given the experience the Canes have on defense, that is a real possibility.

However, there is extra pressure on the Canes to win the Stanley Cup this season. The end of the 2023-2024 season will see 13 Canes players in need of a contract, forcing Waddell to make significant changes to how the Canes roster will look going into the 2024-2025 season. Changes that will see key players, particularly on defense, leave the Canes and get contracts elsewhere through free agency. Because of this added pressure, I expect Waddell to be a bit more aggressive and making some moves like I discussed aren’t completely out of the realm of possibility.

I cannot wait for the season to begin and to see what becomes of this Canes team. Even more some on defense. Let me know your thoughts!