On July 1st, 2019, the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet worth $8.454 million, of which the Carolina Hurricanes knew they were going to match as soon as it was announced. This season, the roles have been reversed. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is the player being lured away from the team that holds his rights.
Kotkaniemi’s deal is loaded with little trolling tidbits and revenge signals. A $20 signing bonus (Aho’s number), an extra $15 on the salary (Kotkaniemi’s number), and an extra $35 total (Aho was drafted 35th overall). It’s also only a one-year deal which doesn’t give Montreal the same control Carolina had over Aho.
This has put Montreal into a vulnerable position, so much so that there is a case to make for them regretting the Aho offer sheet in the first place. For one, they cannot afford to lose Kotkaniemi. They would be down to one top 9 caliber center in the organization, and that’s a scary thought for them. It would force their hand in getting another center, which hurts their leverage.
More than that, Montreal is in some trouble with the salary cap. I know they’re going to have some LTIR space, but that still doesn’t fix their issues now. Kotkanieimi’s offer would really hurt their ability to move players this season, even at the trade deadline. It hampers the Canadiens’ ability to do pretty much anything all season long because they wouldn’t be able to accrue cap space. They’d be forced to dump a deal.
It also puts the Habs in a position of need versus value. They need Kotkaniemi, but the deal is WAY too rich for what he offers. It would give him a qualifying offer next year of over $6 million as well, which is still way more than he is worth. It’s going to hurt the Canadiens for a few years unless Kotkaniemi becomes as good as the 2 players picked before him in 2018.
Now, that’s the whole Jesperi Kotkaniemi angle. If Aho hadn’t been subject to an offer sheet, this probably doesn’t happen which is cause for regret if you are a fan of the Montreal Canadiens. Now, what fall out happened directly from the Aho offer sheet that could be a cause for regret will differ from just saying “Jesperi Kotkaniemi”.
For example, as soon as it was signed, Carolina knew they had Sebastian Aho under contract and Don Waddell remarked “my summer just got freed up” because they knew instantly they were going to match everything the Habs threw at Aho. It was made public as soon as it was known, and it embarrassed the Canadiens publicly.
Moving forward, it leaves the Canadiens open to constant offer sheets from Carolina now. When any respectable RFA hits the free-agent market, there is that looming threat. It won’t just stop with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Remember Nick Suzuki is a restricted free agent next season and I’m sure he would love to be on the same team as Ryan Suzuki, his younger brother.
Do I think that what Carolina has done in the wake of the Aho offer sheet would make Montreal regret their actions? Yes. I do not understand how Montreal couldn’t want to undo what they did with Aho that time ago. Not only did they gift Carolina a fantastic contract with Aho, but they are genuinely considering giving up on a 3rd overall pick because of Carolina’s retaliation.