Carolina Hurricanes: Series Preview vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Carolina is moving on! After a tough six-game series against the Nashville Predators, the Central Division Champions are through to round two, where the daunting task of the playoffs gets that much harder. While Nashville barely snuck into the playoffs, the next opponent happens to be the reigning Stanley Cup Champions. It’s Carolina and Tampa Bay.

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Despite being in the old southeastern division together, this will be the first-ever meeting between these two organizations in the Stanley Cup playoffs. While Tampa did win the cup in the bubble, they won it in 2004 too, which was the last time it was awarded before the Canes’ magical run to capture it in 2006.

In the regular season, Carolina went 4-3-1 against the Lightning and outscored the Bolts 18-17. Martin Necas‘ 3 goals and 5 assists for 8 points mark the Canes’ top scorer against the Lightning, with Alex Killorn‘s 2 goals and 3 assists for 5 points being the Lightning’s top scorer against the Canes.

However, there’s a new threat on the Lightning who didn’t play a single shift in the regular season. Nikita Kucherov had off-season hip surgery and only made his return to the lineup in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs against Florida. Kucherov has returned in a big way this postseason with three goals and eight assists for eleven points in just six games this postseason so far. It’s almost like he’s been healthy for a while.

Since the organization was relocated, the Carolina Hurricanes have not lost in the 2nd round of the postseason. While it’s an impressive feat, the Lightning will pose the toughest challenge to that impeccable record.

Openly being over the cap, Tampa wandered their way into the playoffs with the bulk of their Stanley Cup-winning core form last year. It’s no secret that Tampa will not just roll over and allow the Canes to walk through them and into the third round. It’s going to be a grueling series and a grinding mess for both teams.

The Blueline

Tampa is viewed as one of the most complete teams in the salary cap era because they are balanced throughout the lineup. Their blueline is no different. While the Lightning house a former Norris winner on the back end, it’s not like it’s just one defenseman on their tremendous unit. Tampa’s top four are as good as anyone in the NHL.

Victor Hedman is a former Norris winner and an incredible defenseman at both ends of the ice. Ryan McDonagh is the former Rangers’ captain and is still a defenseman capable of contributing at both ends. Mikhail Sergachev is a young defenseman still coming into his own, and Erik Cernak has become a fantastic shutdown defenseman as well.

Tampa Bay’s top four is outstanding. Their 3rd pairing, however, is a weakness for this team. Luke Schenn isn’t the fastest defenseman; Jan Rutta could have the same statement applied to him. While they did acquire David Savard, who is a top-four defenseman in his own right, there’s still a weakness with their final defensive pairing.

When you look at the Hurricanes, there’s not that same weakness. Jaccob Slavin is a defensive mastermind. Dougie Hamilton is one of the best offensive defensemen in the National Hockey League, and Brett Pesce has been a mammoth on the Carolina blue line so far this postseason, stepping up big time in round one. Brady Skjei has what Tripp Tracy calls “an eternal lung” and has been fantastic in Slavin’s absence.

While Carolina’s top four is still fantastic, it’s the third pairing that’s worth looking at. Jake Bean and Jani Hakanpaa aren’t perfect, but they’re not exactly liabilities either. They’re fine as a third pairing to eat minutes when the top four need to rest and you don’t want to fall further behind. Hakanpaa will hit anything that moves, and Bean is still growing as a player trying to find his feet as an offensive defenseman.

Both bluelines are loaded with talent, but the edge here goes to Carolina. Its talent at the top end is better than Tampa Bay. Hedman is the best defenseman in this series, but Hamilton and Slavin are better than anyone else on Tampa, and Pesce is very much in that conversation, too. It’s very close, but I’d lean Carolina here.

Goaltending

This one is fairly easy.

Alex Nedeljkovic has had a fantastic season, both regular and playoffs. Whatever happens, the kid from Parma, Ohio has done himself proud. He’s started to allow the Canes some stability in the blue paint for the future, and the Carolina Hurricanes no longer have that hole to fill there. It’s a really unusual situation.

Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy is a Vezina winner and he’s likely going to win it again this year. His ability to stretch from post to post makes it nearly impossible to outmaneuver the 6’3 Russian. He’s got the ability to just randomly put his glove in the middle of nowhere and come up with the puck. He can see around traffic and track the puck as well as anyone else in the history of the league.

If you thought that Nashville posed a genuine threat of getting the series stolen from them by a goaltender, Vasilevskiy is going to make you want to break your television. Seeing teams score on Vasilevskiy is very rare and it’s going to pose a tough challenge to get the run support their young goaltender will need.

On the other foot, going up against the murderous Tampa Bay Lightning team will be the biggest challenge of Nedeljkovic’s career. It’s very likely that whoever comes out of this series will not play a more difficult series than this because of how complete these teams are. Goaltending for both teams is incredible and it should be a very entertaining series to watch.

In terms of depth, this goaltending matchup is very one-sided. Tampa does have an elite goaltender, but it’s really Vasy or bust. If they are forced to turn to backup Curtis McElhinney, it heavily favors Nedeljkovic. Carolina on the other hand has the experience of James Reimer or the mystery box of Petr Mrazek. The depth here favors Carolina, but the starter’s battle is Tampa’s by a small mile.

Overall

It’s no secret this series is a tough, daunting task that the Canes will have to endure. Discipline will be essential because Tampa’s powerplay is capable of firing home on the best of penalty kills. Making the most of its own powerplays has to be the memo for the Carolina Hurricanes in this series. Special teams could be the deciding factor throughout this series.

Can the Canes win this series? 100%. If Tampa Bay starts looking to Round 3 before they beat the Canes, they will get themselves into a heap of trouble. However, Carolina is the slight underdog in this series despite winning the Central Division. It’s nothing to do with Carolina, but a revitalized reigning Cup champion getting someone with the talent of Kucherov back this late in the season is pivotal.

Carolina will have home ice advantage, but both Carolina and Tampa won on the road in the first round, which is why their respective series finished early. If Carolina can hold serve at PNC Arena, they can get through this series. Making PNC Arena a fortress has been something the Canes have done well in the past when they’ve made it deep into the postseason.

If the Carolina Hurricanes are to progress past the 2nd round, they will need a strong performance from every player on the roster. There can be no passengers to knock the defending Stanley Cup Champions out. It’s a task that most teams would view as impossible. For Carolina, there’s a path through this opposition. It’s very difficult, but if they want to win the cup, they will need to perform.

If the Carolina Hurricanes want to be the best, they will need to beat the best.