Carolina Hurricanes: Round 1 Series Preview vs. Predators

Carolina’s spectacular season saw them capture their first division title since 2005-06. None of that matters now, as the Hurricanes find themselves in the Stanley Cup playoffs, facing a foe they have not met before in the postseason in what should be a fantastic series between the two sides.

While the Predators got the better of the Hurricanes in the final two games of the regular season, Carolina dominated the season series. Out of the eight meetings, the Canes bested their Nashville counterparts on six occasions. It’s a fresh slate in the playoffs, and the play-in series against the Rangers proved that last season, but the stats here do favor the Hurricanes.

Carolina outscored the Predators in the season series by a total of 24-17 across the 8 games. Traditionally, this is a team that the Hurricanes find themselves having a lot of success against. While in the playoffs, regular season statistics mean less than nothing, it’s still encouraging for the Canes to see the success they have had over the past few seasons against the Predators.

While most numbers suggest that the Carolina Hurricanes are the better team and that the Nashville Predators are completely outmatched in the first round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, it is important to remember that anything is possible in a game where a vulcanized rubber disk is slid around on the ice.

Nashville concluded the regular season 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, winning their last 2 games against the Canes. It’s not going to be a walk-over series. This should be a tight-knit series and it should be very entertaining for the neutral who isn’t backing either team.

Nashville is best summed up as a team of strong depth players. While they lack the true star talent of previous cup winners, they still have a roster capable of rolling 4 lines and posing a threat with any line they throw out over the boards. They boast a strong defense and a promising young goaltender to backstop this organization.

Forwards

When breaking down a playoff series, you usually see similar production in teams’ top players. This is not the case here. While Sebastian Aho was the best point producer on either team heading into the playoffs, the top 5 Hurricanes point producers would have been the top producer on the Predators roster. Part of this is due to injury, but this is a team that doesn’t score a lot.

Nashville’s top forward scorer was Filip Forsberg who only played in 39 games, but only recorded 32 points. He was the only Nashville forward to pass the 30 point plateau. Only 6 others passed the 20 point mark. To put this into context, Carolina had 4 forwards pass the 40 point threshold. This should already show that the Canes offensive prowess is far more obvious than the Tennessee outfit.

While it’s obvious that the Canes have the offensive firepower to outmatch the Predators, there’s another aspect of the forward game we have not talked about so far. Carolina’s forwards are just better in their own zone. Jordan Staal is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, and everyone under Rod Brind’Amour has taken leaps and bounds in their own zone.

Teuvo Teravainen and Nino Niederreiter are two of the best defensive wingers in the organization, both coming a long way under Brind’Amour. While Nashville has forwards that are capable in their own end, Brind’amour’s systematic approach to set the team up just better suits the playoff atmosphere than the system set up by John Hynes.

In terms of depth, I think it’s incredible to even question this. Carolina’s top 3 centers had 57, 43, and 38 points respectively going down the lines. When you consider that Teravainen missed considerable chunks of the season due to both COVID and a concussion, this is no small feat. Carolina’s offense was producing like a well-oiled machine.

When you get to the 4th lines, we’ve seen what Nashville’s 4th line is capable of in the 5-0 loss in the final game of the season. However, a healthy Canes roster with Cedric Paquette bringing his physicality to the ice, and Jordan Martinook not wanting to be outdone, will bring a new side of the crash and bang approach that Paquette brought to the Lightning during their championship run last year.

So overall? The Carolina Hurricanes’ forward core seems to be far more dominant heading into the series, specifically from a numerical standpoint. It’s younger, it has fewer miles on the clock, and the Canes forward core has fewer injury concerns than that of the Predators. This series will favor Carolina’s forwards the longer it goes on.

Goaltenders

For a long time, the blue paint has been the home to the Carolina Hurricanes’ biggest weakness. Quite frankly, I’m not sure it’s changed, but it’s significantly less of an issue than it was in previous eras. When Petr Mrazek started off the season hot and broke his thumb, I think everyone was excited to see Alex Nedeljkovic back up James Reimer and maybe get a chance to prove himself as an NHL player.

Ned has not disappointed. 1.90 goals-against average and a .932 save percentage for the Parma, Ohio native sees him sit top of the stats for all goaltenders having played a minimum of 15 games. He’s been nothing short of outstanding and the hot rookie goaltender has stepped up in a big way to help stabilize the ship. His 15-5-3 record has been vital for Carolina’s success this season.

His first three career NHL shutouts have come this year, and if this had been over a larger sample size, he very well could have been in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender. I’m not saying he deserves it this year, but his numbers have been nothing but incredible. This one highlight-reel save kind of sums up his season.

While Nedeljkovic has been a shining star, Carolina has a few other warriors who can take the pipe if the kid falters. Mrazek was special himself to start the season, having 3 shutouts in his first 4 games. He has missed a lot of time after breaking his thumb in his 5th game against Dallas, but his 2.06 goals-against average and his .923 save percentage aren’t anything to turn your nose up at.

Mrazek’s 6-2-3 record is not special, but James Reimer’s 15-5-2 record wasn’t bad at all, either. While Reimer doesn’t have the same statistical shine as the other two goalies, his stats are still average to slightly above league-average. 2.66 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage are not great, but they aren’t bad. All three are fantastic options for Rod and his team to call upon if times get tough.

As for Nashville, Juuse Saros is the only way the Predators have a shot in this series. Capable of turning into the great wall of Helsinki, the Finnish goaltender is going to be the biggest threat for taking this series away from the Carolina Hurricanes. His .927 save percentage and 2.28 goals-against average are the main reason the Nashville Predators are competing for the Cup in the first place.

Should Saros falter, Nashville has another goaltender who is “just too good right now”. Evergreen Pekka Rinne is still ol’ reliable when the Preds need to rest their young netminder. While Rinne is at the concluding part of his NHL career, he’s still capable of turning back the clock to shut a team down. Nashville’s crease is well taken care of by these two Finns.

So, who does the goaltending favor? I would say Nedeljkovic had a better regular season than Saros, but that means nothing in the playoffs. Hockey is a game of weird bounces and luck, but goaltenders are a special kind of voodoo. We will not know who’s better until we get into the series tonight.

Overall

Well, this is a series the Carolina Hurricanes lock dominant in on paper. Juuse Saros would need to stand on his head in a thousand different ways for Carolina to be under pressure. However, if hockey was played on paper, Tampa Bay wouldn’t have been swept by Columbus two years ago. It’s a game of luck, so it’s incredibly unpredictable at the best of times.

Carolina starts the series at PNC Arena tonight at 8 PM Eastern Standard Time. Game two will be at the same time on Wednesday. When the series moves to Nashville on Friday, puck drop is scheduled for 7 PM Eastern. Games 4, 5*, 6* and 7* still do not have start times yet. (*If they are needed.)

It’s finely poised. Carolina’s skating unit seems leaps and bounds better than the Predators’ core. While it’s younger and more energetic, Nashville still has most of the pieces they had on their 2017 Stanley Cup run; Nashville still boasts a lot of playoff experience. In the net, two 25-year-olds go head to head, with very similar regular season stats.

Behind the bench, Rod Brind’amour is underrated every year while John Hynes came down from New Jersey last year to take charge of the Predators after they fired their coach. It’s a clash of youth versus experience. It should be a great series to watch, and while it could be an upset in the making if the Canes take the Predators lightly, this should still be a victorious Canes hockey club.

But finally, it’s playoff time. Nashville-Carolina for the first time ever. For the first time since relocation, the Carolina Hurricanes have made the playoffs in 3 consecutive years. Young pieces filling out the holes on the roster perfectly, experienced players from the deep 2019 run, a Stanley Cup-winning captain, and a fantastic head coach. It should be a fun postseason for us to watch.

Question for Cardiac Cane readers: What’s your prediction for the series?