Carolina Hurricanes: Stay or Go; UFA Edition

The Carolina Hurricanes currently have 5 roster players slated to be unrestricted free agents on July 1st. Should any of them be re-signed?

It’s never too early to start looking into the future, and the Carolina Hurricanes are surely doing that internally, as they have 5 current roster players (including Anton Forsberg) set to hit the open market on July 1, 2020.

Obviously, the five guys in question have varying degrees of importance to the team, as well as varying degrees of potential market value, which could complicate things, should the team want any of their guys back.

I obviously can’t speak for the team, but in this article we’ll look at the importance of each player to the team, their potential value ($$$) on the free-agent market, as well as the likelihood of each guy being re-signed by the team. Sit back and enjoy.

Joel Edmundson

Now, we get to the interesting stuff. Joel Edmundson, who was the roster player acquired in the Justin Faulk deal, has really had an up-and-down season in terms of his overall play in Carolina.

On one hand, he’s managed to tie his career-high in goals (7), and set new career-bests in assists (13) and points (20). He’s not an offensive creator at all, but he manages to pop up at the right place/right time for the team, and has benefited from it, statistically.

As far as his defensive play goes, he’s had moments of good, and moments of awful. He leads all Canes’ defensemen in hits (118), and leads the team in penalty minutes (72), but I can’t say he’s been the imposing physical presence many were expecting him to be. He is, however, a regular on the penalty kill (2:48 per game) with solid results (5.2GA/60).

Beyond that, meh. It’s obvious Rod trusts him (as evidenced by his 55% defensive zone shift starts) but his Corsi percentage of 50.8 is a team-low in that regard, and his expected-goals percentage is also a team low -10.0, which is quite terrible, and proof that the Carolina Hurricanes give up far more dangerous scoring opportunities than they create when Edmundson is on the ice.

The picture those stats paint is a weird one – he’s a stay-at-home defenseman that has 20(!) even-strength points (despite poor analytical 5-on-5 stats) and has struggled at times defensively. Overall, that isn’t exactly a confidence booster if you’re committing long-term money to a guy. If his breakout offensive year is an aberration – then what exactly is this guy?

I don’t think the Carolina Hurricanes will take the chance on finding that out. They have 5 defensemen currently signed at 4M+ against the cap next year, as well as Haydn Fleury with RFA status. That gives the Canes 6 NHL D for next year, and leaves Edmundson, who’ll likely want a raise on his currently 3.1 million-dollar salary, on the outside looking in.

Edmundson will likely command a long-term deal at an increased AAV (he asked for 4.2 million at salary arbitration in August 2019) and with his breakout offensive output, could probably get a nice contract for himself on the open market.

But when considering the Carolina Hurricanes’ contract situation on D as well as Edmundson’s inconsistent play for the team as a whole, I find it very hard to envision any scenario that Edmundson is back in Raleigh next year.

Stay or Go: Go.

Trevor van Riemsdyk

On the surface, the Trevor van Riemsdyk seems like an easy one for the Canes, but I’m actually not convinced that it’s a sure bet to let him walk.

Let’s be honest, TvR has not had a great season. He’s been driving play with a 54.7 Corsi rate, but the Canes have been out-scored 32-23 with him on the ice at even-strength. Simply put, he hasn’t been the same since his season-ending shoulder injury in the playoffs last season.

Though TvR has been put in some situations to fail, which aren’t his fault (such as playing on the top defensive pairing), it’s been a disappointing season for TvR overall, who’s served as a healthy extra at times. He was unspectacular albeit quite solid in his first two seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes, and a perfect 5/6 defenseman.

At this point, I’m not sure. He isn’t dynamic in any way, and at times this season he looks like he’s lost the sense of composure that made him a steady presence on the Canes blueline in previous years. He’s not overly physical, he’s not much of an offensive creator, and his defensive-zone awareness has been questioned this season. It seems like an easy decision to move on.

But. Hear me out. If other teams have been watching closely, I can’t see TvR getting a raise on his current $2.3 million AAV on the open market, despite him being a highly coveted right-shot D. Because of that, is it possible that he could re-sign with the Canes?

It could potentially be an option, for sure. The Hurricanes have dealt with significant injuries on defense this year, and TvR could serve as a perfect 7th-defenseman who could easily slot in the lineup should an injury occur. The coaching staff trusts him, and he’s usually solid enough when deployed correctly on the 3rd pairing.

Of course, that depends on whether TvR can get a better opportunity elsewhere, and, given the value of right-shot D in the NHL, I envision that being the case. Because of that, I’ll say TvR should go, but I would definitely be open to him returning as the 7th D, if the price makes sense.

Stay or Go: Go.

Sami Vatanen

It’s almost irrelevant to include Sami Vatanen on this list, but because of his impending free agent status I will, for the sake of the readers. But it’s certainly quite possible that we’ll never see Sami Vatanen suit up in a game for the Carolina Hurricanes.

After coming over from New Jersey at the trade deadline, Hurricanes fans were ecstatic to get a guy that could replace Jaccob Slavin on the top powerplay unit. Unfortunately, the Canes traded for a frequently injured player who was, in fact, injured, and that could be history.

Let me just hammer it right down to the point here. Vatanen will not be back with the Carolina Hurricanes next year. For starters, there’s no way they could fit a new contract for him into their cap budget – he’ll likely want a long-term raise on his current $4.875M AAV – and to faciliate that, they’d likely have to move a contract like Jake Gardiner’s.

It really makes no sense to do that. For one, Gardiner has settled nicely into the team, and will definitely have a lower cap-hit than Vatanen will command. Vatanen’s long injury history, as well as the fact that, you know, he hasn’t actually played a single game for the Carolina Hurricanes, all but seals the fate here.

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There’s also no way to justify paying Vatanen likely upwards of $5 million per year when he would slot in behind both Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce on the right-side. The Canes figure to have both Hamilton and Gardiner around to run their powerplay units next season, so letting Vatanen go won’t hurt them at all.

Should the NHL season resume at some point, the Hurricanes will hope Vatanen can give them any semblance of a contribution after parting with prospect Janne Kuokkanen to acquire him. But as far as free agency goes, Vatanen already has one foot out the door.

Stay or Go: Go.

Anton Forsberg

Though he hasn’t been a regular for the Canes this season, he was serving as Petr Mrazek’s back-up when the league was shut down last week, and is a pending UFA this summer, so I figured I would include him on the list.

I’ll make it short and sweet.

Despite showing that he could have NHL capabilities as a spot-starter during the last couple weeks, I can’t foresee any scenario that the Canes brass offers Forsberg a new contract. If you recall, Forsberg elected to take the Carolina Hurricanes to salary arbitration last summer, which really upset Canes brass.

What made matters even worse was that Forsberg was inexplicably rewarded a one-way contract, despite not playing a single NHL game the previous year, which means that the Hurricanes are paying him a full $775,000 salary this year to play in the AHL.

Beyond that, the Hurricanes still have Petr Mrazek and James Reimer under contract for next season, and they have Alex Nedeljkovic set to graduate from the AHL as his waiver-exempt status expires this summer.

I guess it’s a possibility that Forsberg could be retained to play in Charlotte, as both Callum Booth and Jeremy Helvig have question marks surrounding their future in the organization, but my guess is that the Canes look elsewhere and Forsberg, at age 27 and seeing the clock ticking away on a potential NHL career, will likely do the same.

Stay or Go: Go.

Recap:

Justin Williams – Awaiting His Decision

Joel Edmundson – Go

Trevor van Riemsdyk – Go

Sami Vatanen – Go

Anton Forsberg – Go

Question for CC Readers: Which of these pending UFAs would you like to see re-signed by the team?