Carolina Hurricanes: The Outcome of the Jeff Skinner Trade

Jeff Skinner in Buffalo

For the casual observer, people automatically assumed that Buffalo had robbed Carolina blind when the deal went down. How on earth could the Hurricanes move a guy who’d scored 206 goals and was only 26 years of age for a couple of draft picks? The narrative was set from the start.

Little did those people realize that Jeff Skinner was heading into the last year of his deal, and was in line for a massive payday. The Hurricanes, who’d watched Skinner’s maddeningly inconsistent goal-scoring and experienced zero team success during his 8 years with the club, were never going to match his contract demands.

That forced their hand to trade Skinner. The fact that Carolina received just a 2nd, 3rd, and 6th round pick for their most decorated goal scorer of the decade spoke volumes about his value around the league. It’s no question that he’s an elite goal scorer; but his impact starts and ends with that. He’s a one-trick pony, who is notoriously inconsistent at his trick.

As a big fan of Skinner, I wasn’t in the least bit surprised to see Jeff score 36 goals in his first 57 games as a Sabre last season, which had him among the league leaders in goal scoring.

I also wasn’t surprised to see him follow that up with just 1 goal in his following 21 games. Canes fans were accustomed to watching Skinner explode for 10 goals in a 10-game stretch, and follow that up with a 10-game disappearing act.

Regardless though, Skinner recorded his first 40-goal season in the NHL last year with Buffalo, and heading into the summer as an impending unrestricted free agent, Buffalo had the choice of whether to let Skinner walk, or to open their checkbook for their first 40-goal man since Thomas Vanek in 2009. They chose the latter.

Just weeks before Skinner was set to hit the open market, Buffalo awarded him with an 8-year deal worth a total of $72 million, and his $9M cap hit surpasses that of any Carolina Hurricanes player. Interestingly, Sabres GM Jason Botterill sounded unsure if Skinner could replicate his 40-goal pace:

“We understand that Jeff’s goal total will probably fluctuate during his time in Buffalo … But we want to add to our group and not try to have to go out there and try to replace what Jeff Skinner can bring.”

He was bang on. Despite jumping out of the gate on fire, Buffalo has regressed to being well-below the playoff cut, and Jeff Skinner hasn’t contributed much to get them back afloat. He’s got just 11 goals and 19 points in 39 games, and he’s been dealing with an upper-body injury that’s kept him sidelined for their past 10 games.

For Buffalo, their initial return on investment is very lackadaisical. In terms of cap hit, Skinner’s ranks 21st in the entire NHL, but in terms of goal scoring his 11 goals rank tied for 142nd. Considering his role as a sniper, those numbers leave a ton to be desired.

None of that’s to say that Skinner can’t or won’t turn it around at some point, as he’s always been known to get hot and score in bunches, and that will be what the Sabres are counting on moving forward with the next 7 years of his deal.

From Carolina’s perspective of it, there’s no scenario imaginable where they would’ve given Skinner the same contract that he got from Buffalo. And I have to assume that even the biggest Skinner fans like myself would’ve been against it.