A Look At The Future Of Carolina Hurricanes Goaltending
It’s pretty apparent that the Carolina Hurricanes have a deep prospect group. But just how good does their future look in the crease?
Despite being firmly entrenched in the midst of a season where expectations are as high as they’ve ever been in Caniac Nation, it’s never a bad idea to keep an eye on the future. And luckily for Canes fans, there’s much reason to.
With the prospect depth the organization has assembled, Canes management (plus a quick shoutout to Ron Francis) has laid a foundation that could rival almost any in the NHL. A sheer wealth of talented prospects, combined with current success and Tom Dundon’s desire of all-around excellence, Canes fans are set to reap the reward they rightfully deserve after many long years of suffering.
One thing the Canes have yet to address – which is a large key to sustained success – is finding a franchise goaltender. Unfortunately franchise-type goaltenders like Carey Price, Andrei Vasilevsky and Marc-Andre Fleury don’t just grow on trees, which has become dreadfully apparent to Caniacs over the years. Cam Ward was the closest thing Carolina had to being that guy – but despite his Hurricanes legacy, it’s not a mystery that he never quite reached that level.
On the Carolina Hurricanes’ current roster, you’re also unlikely to find that guy. Petr Mrazek has brilliant moments, but is plagued with inconsistency. James Reimer has had a fine career, but will be 32 in March, and has never been regarded as more than ‘solid’. For the Canes to find their franchise guy, they’ll have to turn elsewhere from their current roster.
Luckily, management has done a rather swell job of addressing the future of the goaltending position in the draft. They’ve selected a goalie in each of their past 6 draft classes, with 7 total selections in that timeframe – all of whom remain with the organization, and we’ll get to them in a bit.
Unfortunately, the Canes’ drafted-goaltender history has been rather underwhelming since the selection of Cam Ward in 2002. Between 2004 and 2014, the Hurricanes drafted 6 goalies. 5 of them – Magnus Akerlund, Mike Murphy, Matt Mahalak, Daniel Altshuller, and Collin Olson – never started a game for the team, and the 6th guy was Justin Peters, who was replacement-level at best.
That track record is worrisome, but a lot of those guys had noticeable flaws and the Canes weren’t overly known for their prospect development back then. The difference with their new group of goalie prospects is that their measurables are much better (I mean, Mike Murphy was a 5’10, 160lb goalie), and Carolina’s scouting has become much more trustworthy.
I’ll do a quick breakdown of how this article will be laid out. The next 3 slides will be a detailed look into the prospects I consider to be the top-3, and I’ll follow that with a slide checking in on the outlook and potential future of the other 4 guys. Without further ado, let’s gaze into the future.
Alex Nedeljkovic
The story of Alex Nedeljkovic has been in development for what feels to be an eternity, but has yet to be told. When he was selected 37th overall by the Carolina Hurricanes way back in 2014, fresh off winning the OHL’s Goaltender of the Year award as a 17 year old, expectations were high. Especially considering the state of the Canes’ goaltending back then.
Obviously, goaltenders are always more of a long-term project. Taking a look back at the 2014 draft, no goaltender was selected in the first round. Mason McDonald was the first goalie drafted, and currently plays in the ECHL. Only 5 goalies from that draft have started NHL games: Thatcher Demko (23), Elvis Merzlikins (16), Kaapo Kahkonen (5), Igor Shesterkin (2) and Alex Nedeljkovic (1). In total, 21 goalies selected, with a combined 47 starts. Underwhelming to say the least.
Fortunately for Nedeljkovic, he looks to be well on his way to break the trend of that 2014 goalie class. Last season, he posted a 34-14-1 record with a 2.26 GAA and a .916 save percentage for the Charlotte Checkers, and was awarded the AHL Goaltender of the Year award. He also led the Checkers to win the Calder Cup, with a .916 save% in 15 playoff games.
On top of his AHL success, he also started his first NHL game in Vancouver. The Carolina Hurricanes won that game 5-2, with Nedeljkovic stopping 24 of 26 shots and looking like he belonged in the Canes’ crease. Many assumed, after the conclusion of last season with Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney both unrestricted free agents, that the Canes would likely move on from one of them and give Nedeljkovic his rightful chance.
That never happened. Mrazek was re-signed, and Scott Darling was dumped to bring in James Reimer to compete with Nedeljkovic and newly-acquired Anton Forsberg in training camp. Reimer’s experience, along with his $3.4 million salary was too much for Nedeljkovic to overcome, and he found himself back with the Checkers.
After a treacherous start to the season, where he allowed 11 goals on 52 shots and lost his first 3 starts, Nedeljkovic has been on an absolute tear of late, and fans have called for him when Mrazek and Reimer have struggled. In Nedeljkovic’s past 16 starts for Charlotte, he’s posted a 10-5-1 record with an impressive 2.00 GAA and a .926 save percentage, with 3 shutouts.
His brilliance at the AHL level inspires confidence for his NHL future. Looking towards that, Nedeljkovic is signed on a one-way deal for next season, and cannot be assigned to Charlotte without passing through NHL waivers. If Carolina has any faith in Nedeljkovic’s future, they won’t take that risk, and he’ll be on the team next year.
What exactly to expect from Nedeljkovic at the NHL level is obviously a mystery, but he’s been thought of to have starting potential dating back to his pre-Draft days. With Mrazek and Reimer also signed through next year, it’ll be interesting to see Carolina’s strategy this offseason. They likely won’t keep both of them (both guys have 3M+ cap hits, opposed to Nedeljkovic at 737K).
So as of today, I would fully expect to see Nedeljkovic as a regular in the Canes crease next season, likely splitting time with one of Mrazek/Reimer. Nedeljkovic is set to be an RFA after next season, so he’s got a lot to prove next year if he plans on being a long-term fixture for Hurricanes goaltending. He definitely has the talent to do it, but time will tell.
Pyotr Kochetkov
Goaltenders have always been the most difficult players for scouts to project in terms of development. If you need proof of that, look no further than Pyotr Kochetkov, who was the Canes’ 36th overall pick in the 2019 draft.
Drafted with the second-round pick acquired in the Jeff Skinner trade to Buffalo, the 20-year old Kochetkov had already watched 2 NHL drafts come and go without hearing his named called. The talent was always there, but unfortunately, scouts don’t see many Russian minor-league and junior games.
Fortunately for Kochetkov, he caught the eye of scouts when he was named to the Russian World Junior team in 2019, and also manned the Russian net in the 2019 CHL Russia Challenge where he shut down the OHL All-Star team.
“He [Kochetkov] was only passed over twice because we never got to see him play.” – an anonymous NHL goalie coach said in early 2019.
When Kochetkov finally got his chance in the spotlight, he absolutely did not disappoint. He posted a 1.45 GAA and a .953 save percentage at the U20 World Junior tournament, and won the Goalie of the Tournament award along the way. He also tore up the VHL (which is the Russian equivalent to the AHL) with a .930 save percentage in 18 games.
Due to that success after grabbing the attention of scouts, it was of little surprise to anybody when Kochetkov was the 2nd goaltender picked in 2019 NHL Draft, despite his status as a double overage selection. Kochetkov however, wasn’t ready to make excuses, and embraced being overlooked by NHL teams in the previous drafts.
“[I told scouts] Maybe you guys were looking in the wrong places or looking poorly,” Kochetkov joked. “But I’ve always been a realist and maybe I wasn’t good enough [to be drafted] the previous years. But I never lost hope.”
Patience paid off for Kochetkov, who’s looking like he has a really bright future ahead in the Carolina Hurricanes organization. Hand-picked by the new management regime, Kochetkov was the highest-picked goalie by the Canes since they took Cam Ward in the first round way back in 2002. Obviously, Carolina is expecting big things from this kid in the future.
For now, he continues to develop his game in Russia, where he was traded in-season from KHL powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg to Vityaz Podolsk, and he’s received more playing time. In 7 games with Vityaz of the KHL, Kochetkov has a 1-4-0 record, but a promising .922 save percentage. Unfortunately though, it’s been a bumpy season for him, as he’s played with 4 different teams across 3 different leagues.
But there’s no need to panic. It’s extremely difficult for a 20-year old goaltender to break into the KHL, which is the second best league in the world. It’s a testament to his skill level that he’s managed to appear in 13 games at that level this year, and will look to continue to build on that next season before his KHL contract expires.
When his contract is up, he’ll have the option to come overseas and sign his entry-level deal with Carolina, who could foresee a complete overhaul of their goaltending situation by then. Petr Mrazek and James Reimer are scheduled to be UFAs that summer, and currently unproven Alex Nedeljkovic will be an RFA. If Kochetkov is NHL-ready by then, he could fast-track his way right to Raleigh.
He possesses extreme athletic ability, and he’s got a real good chance of being an NHL starter with potentially elite upside. His style and overall game have drawn comparisons to Braden Holtby, which would be a really favourable outcome for Carolina. All things considered, he’s arguably the most exciting goaltending prospect in the Hurricanes organization.
Eetu Makiniemi
Some of you might be surprised to see Eetu Makiniemi in the Top-3. Well, you shouldn’t be. Talent wise, he’s a really solid prospect, but injuries have held him back a bit since being drafted in the 4th round back in 2017 by Carolina. Fortunately, the kid is back on track this year, and showing what he can do.
The final goaltender drafted by the Ron Francis regime, the Finnish-born Makiniemi remains overseas, developing in his homeland. At 6’2, 176lbs, he has ideal size for an NHL goaltender, and he has great athletic abilities. He’s a very aggressive challenger in the crease, and confidence is no issue for him.
To illustrate how hard it is to evaluate a goaltender’s career projection at 18 years old, remember that Makiniemi was selected 104th overall in the 2017 draft. 2017 was also the draft year of Pyotr Kochetkov, who went undrafted, and then again in 2018. Fast forward to now, and Kochetkov is the more highly-regarded prospect.
However, that’s not a slight on Makiniemi. Despite battling through some injuries and only starting 13 games in the Mestis league (Finnish equivalent of the AHL) in 2018-19, he did post a .905 save percentage, which was good enough to have him tied for 4th best in that league. As a teenaged goaltender in a men’s league, that’s respectable.
In prospects camp this past summer, Makiniemi was very noticeable. His athletic ability was on full display. A lot of Canes fans took notice and asked me about him, and I let them know that I thought this upcoming season was a big one for Makiniemi’s future. Thankfully, it’s off to a good start.
He started off the year in Mestis again, but he proved rather quickly that he was too good for that league. He’s posted a 13-1-7 record in 22 games, with a 2.74 GAA and a .916 save percentage, which leads the entire league by a wide margin.
He’s since been re-called to Liiga, the top Finnish league, with Ilves Tampere. In 4 games there, he’s got a 1-0-2 record with a 1.59 GAA and an impressive .930 save percentage. Now 20 years old, it’s a good bet that Makiniemi stays in the top league for good – he’s definitely too good to be in Mestis.
Exactly what Makiniemi’s future holds is anyone’s guess. Since he’s a European-based draft pick, the Canes have 2 more seasons after this year before they’d lose Makiniemi’s rights. Therefore, he has 2 more years of probable development in Liiga, before he likely makes his way overseas to compete for time in the Carolina Hurricanes’ crease.
Canes’ head European scout Robert Kron had this to say about Eetu’s development:
“Eetu plays a mix of a butterfly and stand up goalie. He reads the game very well, and his second effort is excellent. There is not a one particular goalie that comes to mind, but he comes from the Finnish system that generates very good goaltenders that made positive impact in NHL. They all have some similarities but also their own identity.”
A couple of NHL scouts have compared Makiniemi’s style to that of Tuukka Rask. This is a kid who’s definitely still years away from the NHL, and has a ton of development to do to reach his ceiling, but don’t mistake how high his ceiling is. He’s got remarkable upside, but only time will tell if he can realize it.
The Others
Even though these guys didn’t make it on my Top-3 list, that doesn’t mean they should be written off, nor does it mean that they won’t eventually surpass the others. As I’ve mentioned, the developmental curve of goalies is an absolute crapshoot, and some guys often blossom out of nowhere.
The four goalies that didn’t make the list are Callum Booth, Jeremy Helvig, Jack Lafontaine, and Jacob Kucharski.
Booth might be the biggest question mark of the bunch. The 93rd overall selection in 2015, his career has been long followed by Canes fans, who’ve been intrigued by his size (6’4, 190lbs) and junior-level success. Unfortunately for Booth, things haven’t turned out overly well in the pros for him yet.
Despite being in the Canes’ professional ranks for 3 seasons now, Booth has played just 14 games at the AHL level – none of which have been this year. He’s spent most of his time in the ECHL, where he’s been mostly average the last two seasons. This year, it’s gone off the rails for him – he’s played just 4 games all season, and often served as a healthy extra for Greenville before being assigned to Atlanta, where he’s played just 1 game.
Suffice to say, the road ahead for Booth looks bleak. He’s scheduled to be an RFA after the season, and with the amount of prospects in the Canes system and how valuable each of the 50 alloted contract slots are, it seems unlikely that the team would retain Booth after 3 seasons without seeing any progression. It’s not over yet, but it’s almost time to close the Booth door … if you will.
A part of Booth’s demise has been the ascent of Jeremy Helvig, who went undrafted in the 2015 draft that Booth was selected in. Helvig, who’s 4 days younger than Booth, had to wait until the 2016 draft when the Canes took him in the middle of the fifth round. Like Booth, he’s got prototypical NHL size at 6’4, 210lbs.
Helvig had an extremely stellar junior career with the Kingston Frontenacs of the OHL, and continued his progression with the Florida Everblades of the ECHL last year. He had a 27-6-4 record, a 2.27 GAA and a .918 save percentage, and has followed that season up with a 10-5-1 record with a 3.07 GAA and a .921 save percentage for a far inferior Greensville team this year.
The numbers look good on the surface for Helvig, but he’s turning 23 in May and has yet to start an AHL game. Fortunately for Helvig, the likelihood is that neither of Alex Nedeljkovic or Anton Forsberg will be in Charlotte next year, so Helvig will have an opportunity to earn time in an AHL crease. He’s still under contract until the end of next season, so he’s still got time to prove he can be part of the solution moving forward.
Over in the college ranks, the two Carolina Hurricanes prospects currently offer very little excitement. The two in question are Jack LaFontaine and Jacob Kucharski.
I’ll get Kucharski out of the way quickly. He was a 7th round pick in 2018 – low expectation, but his large frame intrigued Canes’ scouts. However, he’s been awful his whole career, and has played just 9 games in the 2 years since being drafted. He had a horrid .861 save percentage in 8 games in the USHL last year. He moved to Providence College this season, but hasn’t played a single game there all year, and in all likelihood will not. It’s too early to close the book completely, but this kid was a long shot to begin with and has been trending in the wrong direction since the day he was drafted. Don’t hold your breath on this guy.
Jack LaFontaine is also a huge mystery. After the Canes invested a third-round pick on him in the 2016 draft, he’s had a rough go of it ever since. After 2 subpar seasons at the U. of Michigan, he left, and spent last season in the BCHL. He had a lot of success there (30-13-1, 2.19, .923), but it wasn’t necessarily against top-notch competition.
He’s had another crack at the college route this year, at the University of Minnesota. However, he’s split the crease with a 20-year old Winnipeg Jets 6th-rounder named Jared Moe, and has inferior statistics to him. His development just hasn’t taken off the way the team had envisioned.
With LaFontaine, the Carolina Hurricanes will have to make a decision on him soon, and maybe already have internally. The Canes will have the decision to sign him when his season ends; if they decide not to he will become an unrestricted free agent on August 15th, 2020. My personal outlook? I’m not convinced that the Canes will sign him, and I’m even less convinced he has an NHL future.
It’s no secret the Canes have invested heavily in the goaltending department in recent drafts, looking for their backbone of the future. They’ve done a good job finding a variety of guys with different skill sets, and the potential franchise guy could be among this group. We’ll definitely have to wait and see, but regardless, these kids are an exciting group to follow.
light. Must Read. Will the Canes Be Buyers or Sellers at the Deadline?
Question to CC Readers: Which goalie prospects excite you the most?