Carolina Hurricanes: Point Projections at the 30-Game Mark

After a 6-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild, the Carolina Hurricanes are a full 30 games into the season.  How are their top scorers doing and what sort of pace are they on?

The Carolina Hurricanes currently hold the 9th best offense in the NHL.  The team has seen some strong starts, none more impressive than that of sophomore winger Andrei Svechnikov.  They’ve also managed to score 4 or more goals in 12 of their 30 games (40%).  Their record in those games?  12-0.

I will concede that 4 of those contests went into overtime (including a shootout against the Montreal Canadiens on opening night) but the fact remains that the Hurricanes fare very well when their offense is clicking.  When it isn’t, well, things are far less rosy.

In the 12 games where they’ve been held to 2 or fewer goals, the Hurricanes record falls to 3-9.  Another point of reference?  Okay, I’ll be glad to provide one.  In those 12 games that saw the Hurricanes put up 4 or more goals, their power play connected at 37.5% (12-32).

That is outstanding.  Less so?  In the dozen games where they’ve managed 2 or fewer goals, the Hurricanes’ power play fizzled, clipping out at 10.5% (4-38).

That’s a pretty drastic swing and it highlights the inconsistency that the Hurricanes have battled through.  That said, this article isn’t meant to be a downer.  Instead, let’s take a look at the team’s leading scorers and see where they’re projected to finish, based on their current performance.  For contrast, we’ll also look at the stats from their career years.

Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen

Let’s kick things off with the Hurricanes’ top two scorers.  Andrei Svechnikov exploded out of the gate this season, racking up a 9 game point streak and posting 11 multi-point games.  Thirty games in and the 19-year-old is second on the team in goals and assists and sports the lead in total points.

Just how important is Svechnikov to his team’s success?  In the 10 games which he has failed to record a point, the Hurricanes record is 2-7-1.  Their record when he records at least one point?  16-4.  What about the games where he’s recorded 2 or more points?  11-0.  The Hurricanes have absolutely lived and died by Svechnikov’s performance.

Let’s take a look at the numbers (career year, current totals, projection):

That’s a pretty strong sophomore season.  The caveat is that Svechnikov is currently sporting a 15.7% shooting percentage, a full 5% higher than his rookie season.  While it’s possible he maintains something close to it, it’s likely that marks dips a bit over the remainder of the season.

Teuvo Teravainen has continued to be his reliable self, making incredible passes and playing in all situations.  Teravainen has put together two separate 5 game point streaks and, in many ways, is the catalyst of the Hurricanes’ attack.

A cerebral playmaker with a high hockey I.Q., he has the tendency to look for a pass before shooting which limits his goal-scoring, however, his passing is arguably the best this team has seen since Ray Whitney was here.

Let’s take a look at our next two top scorers.

Ryan Dzingel and Jaccob Slavin

Ryan Dzingel was added to bring offensive depth to the Carolina Hurricanes, and he’s done a perfectly serviceable job of that so far.  He’s been a bit streaky since picking up points in 3 of the Hurricanes’ first 5 games, but he’s not here to be “The Guy” so a little of that is acceptable.

He’s currently on pace for 113 shots, which would be his lowest total since his 30-game rookie season.  Along with that, Dzingel’s current shooting percentage sits at 11.9%.  That’s not bad, but it’s nearly 3% below his career average.  Much can be attributed to his bouncing around the lineup but you can credit his uneven performance for that and I’m not here to play “The Chicken or the Egg.”

That’s not a hideous drop-off from his career season and it’s possible that, if he takes better quality shots, he could notch a few more goals.  The fact that his mentality is to continue working instead of sulking bodes well for him.

Is anyone surprised to see Jaccob Slavin here?  He’s gotten better and better every year since breaking into the league in 2015-16.  The defensive pair of Slavin and Hamilton has been phenomenal for the Hurricanes as both players’ strengths complement each other without becoming a hindrance.

Those aren’t the flashiest offensive numbers for a defenseman but, when coupled with his world-class defensive play, they should put Slavin firmly in the Norris discussion.

Honorable Mentions

Martin Necas

At the time of writing, Necas has missed the past 4 games with a lower-body injury.  A recent tweet from Michael Smith indicates that Necas could return at some point during the Hurricanes’ upcoming Western Canada road trip.  Let’s say he comes back against Vancouver on Thursday, giving Necas an additional few days to recover.

• 2019-20: 26GP; 6g; 10a; 16p
• Projection: 77GP; 18g; 30a; 48p

Erik Haula

Haula is a little more difficult to pinpoint.  In a December 2 interview, Carolina general manager Don Waddell indicated that Haula’s absence is due to tendonitis, which is good, though it could be something that reappears during the season.  With that in mind, I’ll be a little more conservative with games played.  After all, this is just for fun.

More from Cardiac Cane

• 2023 Southeast Rookie Showcase: Takeaways from the Canes’ Strong Showing in Florida
• Week Two Coverage Of College Hockey In NC
• Derek Stepan Ends His On Ice Career As A Hurricane
• The Southeast Rookie Showcase Will Be a Good Look at Carolina’s Future
• Noesen Ready To Provide Depth For Canes

• 2019-20: 16GP; 8g; 3a; 11p
• Projection: 60GP; 30g; 11a; 41p

Warren Foegele

Foegele, barring catastrophe, will best the career highs he set last season (77GP; 10g;5a;15p).  The real question is where he best fits into the lineup.  His tenacity is unquestioned but playing in the top six means that the offense has to be there.

• 2019-20: 30GP; 4g; 7a; 11p
• Projection: 82GP; 11g; 19a; 30p

Nino Niederreiter

Unlike Necas and Haula, Niederreiter has been healthy.  Unlike Foegele, his offensive talent is a known commodity.  That said, the Swiss winger has struggled mightily.  He came into the December 7 match against Minnesota on an 8-game point skid before picking up an assist in Carolina’s victory.

• 2019-20: 30GP; 3g; 8a; 11p
• Projection: 82GP; 8g; 22a; 30p

How do you feel about the Carolina Hurricanes’ offense?  Which players do you think will hit their projections?  Who do you think might fall off?  Can anyone donate a tendon to Erik Haula?