Carolina Hurricanes: The Rise of Lucas Wallmark in 2019
Routinely one of the Canes’ most underrated players, let’s dig through the numbers and start really appreciating Lucas Wallmark.
Often times, role players take a backseat in terms of fanfare on sports teams. Lucas Wallmark is a fine example of that, unfortunately. He doesn’t have the star-power of Sebastian Aho. Doesn’t have the hype of a young stud like Andrei Svechnikov. Doesn’t have the flashy name like Jordan Staal. But what Lucas Wallmark does have, obviously, is real talent.
With the addition of Erik Haula via trade this season, Wallmark’s role was initially reduced to fourth-line duty. The unfortunate part about that was you could argue that he actually deserved an increased role after his fine showing in the 3C slot and filling in at 2C while Jordan Staal was injured in 2018-19.
In this article, we’ll go over Wallmark’s ascension in his rookie season last year, take a look at how he’s fared so far this season in his undefined role, and then take a peak into the distance as to what the future could hold for Lucas Wallmark. Without further ado, let’s get started.
2018-19: Wallmark’s Rookie season
As a rookie in 2018-19, Wallmark was a real bright spot. His numbers as a rookie don’t necessarily jump off the page – 10 goals, 18 assists in 81 games – which is solid production for a rookie, but the circumstances are what make it even more impressive. He played up and down the lineup, finding his footing as a center and filling that dynamic hybrid role that the Hurricanes had been in search of.
When you dive into the advanced stats, the numbers support the eye-test. His Corsi For percentage was 54.1%, though most Hurricanes were positive in that regard. He was a victim of poor luck – his PDO was amongst the worst of all Canes forwards at 97.7, and his shooting percentage was just 7.6%, which shows real room for improvement if some bounces went his way more often.
He was also an all-situations player, which is impressive for any rookie in this league. He averaged 1:14 per game on the powerplay, and scored 7 powerplay points while usually mounted on the half-wall on the 2nd unit. He’s shown great vision, patience and creativity as a passer. He’s also got a rifle for a shot, which fans often voice that they would love to see him use more often.
Shorthanded, he was also decently effective. He was a regular amongst the Hurricanes revolving door of penalty killers, and posted a better GA/60 shorthanded than Jordan Martinook and equal to that of Jordan Staal.
He was also pretty spectacular for a rookie at even-strength – he had 21 points (8 goals, 13 assists) at 5 on 5 while obviously (54.1 Corsi) controlling possession while on the ice. He capped his rock-solid debut campaign in style during the playoffs, when he scored his first career NHL playoff goal against Washington.
In his exit interview after the season, Wallmark was asked if he’d felt he’d found his place in the NHL.
“Uh, yeah … I’m just trying to play my game and work hard for it .. It was a really fun year, and hopefully I can get better (next year) and do a bit more.”
He also acknowledged that filling in for an injured Jordan Staal in the Canes top-6 gave him confidence.
“Jordo is a key player for us, and with him (out), I had to take a bigger role and I felt OK with that .. I felt like I got more confidence from that.” he said.
Undoubtedly, it was as good of a rookie season as anyone could have hoped for.
2019-20: A Look at Wallmark’s season so far
So after a rather stellar rookie campaign like Wallmark had, both himself and the organization likely would have expected a bigger role for the player moving forward, especially considering he’s entering his prime years now at 24 years old.
But, the Hurricanes went out and acquired another natural center, Erik Haula, to bolster their depth, which in turn pushed Wallmark down a slot in the line-up. But he’s still been rather effective this season.
By my count, Wallmark has been flanked by 8 different wingers through the first 28 games so far, which could spell a recipe for disaster. He’s had very inconsistent linemates, obviously, and at times inconsistent ice-time, which makes it difficult to built chemistry and routinely produce.
But Wallmark has held up just fine.
With 3 goals and 5 assists in his first 28 games, he’s on pace for a slight dip in production but is also averaging 2 fewer minutes on ice per game compared to last season. His Corsi has dropped to 49.1% this year, and his overall possession quality (xGF vs xGA) is down, but those dips can be attributed to his reduced role and revolving door of linemates.
But when given an elevated role and more offensive-minded linemates, Wallmark has delivered. In the last 11 games playing in the injured Erik Haula’s 3C slot, Wallmark’s impact and production have been much improved.
He’s got 2 goals and 3 assists (5 points) in those 11 games, and hasn’t played less than 13 minutes a night. In contrast, he’s only played over 13 minutes in 1 of 17 games with Haula in the line-up, and has just 3 points in those games.
It’s a delicate situation, because on one hand fans are anxiously waiting Erik Haula’s return. His goal scoring and net-front presence have been an extremely valuable addition to the team, and the Canes are understandably better with him in the lineup. But on the other side, you can’t help but feel sorry for Wallmark, who consistently exceeds expectations and has proven worthy of an increased role.
Regardless, Wallmark’s versality, and ability to play all situations and almost anywhere in the lineup (at center) is also a very valuable and sometimes overlooked presence on this team. He’s able to jump up in the line-up when a guy ahead of him goes down injured, and when the team is healthy you have a very high-end 4th-line center who is arguably underslotted.
His Future
At just 24 years old and his best seasons likely ahead of him, it should be a no-brainer to have Lucas Wallmark around for the long haul. But Carolina is obviously stocked with depth throughout the organization, with good centermen already in place, as well as having high-upside centers in Ryan Suzuki, Jamieson Rees and Jack Drury with their sights on the NHL eventually.
Those guys are further down the road, but looking beyond just this season the future for Wallmark in Carolina is also rather cloudy. He’s scheduled to be an arbitration-eligible RFA after the season, which adds to the question marks looming around the Canes’ center-ice position.
Erik Haula is a UFA and could potentially be re-signed. Martin Necas projects as a center down the road (maybe sooner, maybe later?) – but when?, and the Canes also have a multitude of center prospects (Clark Bishop, Eetu Luostarinen, David Cotton) far enough along in their development to maybe fill a 4th-line role for cheaper than what Wallmark will command.
That’s obviously a problem for the offseason though, and that situation will sort itself out when the time comes.
For now, with the Hurricanes off to a solid start in their 2019-20 season and having aspirations of another playoff run, Lucas Wallmark will be a key component of their success. Whether the team is healthy or not, he’ll continue to be effective in whatever role he’s given.
He’s not flashy, so he’ll likely continue to fly under the radar, but he’s earned respect from the fans as one of the most quietly consistent players on this team.
He matches that with his quiet personality, but he’s a really genuinely likable kid, and hopefully, he’ll continue to be a fixture in the Carolina Hurricane’s lineup for years to come, as he’s beneficial to this team in every aspect of the game.
Question for CC readers: Are you a fan of Lucas Wallmark’s game?