There’s No Need for the Carolina Hurricanes to Panic

After reeling off five consecutive wins to open the season, the Carolina Hurricanes have slid into a rough patch.  Despite this, things are far from dire as we move towards the final week of October.

The first eight days of the 2019-20 NHL season brought more hope to a fanbase that already had increased expectations.  After a dominant second half and a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell tweaked the roster in an effort to maximize results.

The Hurricanes found ways to win, including overtime victories against the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning.  In the latter, Carolina held a potent Lightning team to only 13 shots.  Things were looking good as the Hurricanes came into a matchup against a Columbus team that suffered an exodus of talent over the summer.

Despite losing their top scorer and goaltender in that purge, the Blue Jackets outworked the Hurricanes, handing them their first loss of the season.  The Carolina power play, which had managed four goals in five games, went 0-for-3.  James Reimer played well but was ultimately outdueled by Joonas Korpisalo.

Carolina followed that up by shutting out the woeful Los Angeles Kings, highlighted by Petr Mrazek‘s 31 saves and Martin Necas‘ second goal of the season.

The rest of their west coast trip was, well, not good as they dropped a 5-2 decision to the San Jose Sharks and a 4-2 clunker against the Anaheim Ducks.

Let’s take a look at the first five games versus the next four:

While the goals-against has crept up slightly, the bigger concern is the offense.  With a 55% decline in goals-scored and a mind-breaking 22.3% drop in power-play conversion, the biggest areas of opportunity are clear.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at things and see what’s been working and what hasn’t.

The Offense

Two of the biggest concerns are names that don’t appear among the leading scorers: Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter.  The two have struggled mightily in the young season, combining for two goals and four assists through nine games.  Both have appeared visibly frustrated and have been guilty of trying to do too much to break out of their droughts.

Brock McGinn and Warren Foegele, two bottom-six forwards who had strong postseason showings, have also struggled offensively early on, combining for no goals and five assists.  While these two aren’t counted on for high-end scoring, their contributions are necessary for delivering a balanced attack that doesn’t rely solely on the top-six.

The recent west coast trip saw the return of something that has long plagued the Hurricanes, a scourge that has negatively affected their power play and even strength offense: forced passes.  When the Hurricanes are on their game, they control the flow and pace.  Early on, their passes were largely precise and well-timed.

Over the past four games, their passes have, more often than not, looked rushed, resulting in turnovers and icings.  To get back to their prior success, the Hurricanes have to find the puck confidence that was there early on.

Taking an optimistic look yields a few reasons for hope.  First, Aho and Niederreiter will find their touch.  Over his first three seasons, the young Finn has averaged 66 points per season, including a career-best 83 points last season.  Niederreiter, a veteran of eight NHL seasons, has averaged 32 points per year.  Keep in mind that includes 64 unproductive games with the New York Islanders at the beginning of his career.

Keeping on the positive tack, Hamilton, Teravainen, and Svechnikov have bolted out of the gates this season.  As of writing, Hamilton is the fourth-highest scoring defenseman, his ten points putting him tenth in overall scoring as well.  Four of those points (1G, 3A) have come on the power play, a trend that will need to continue in order for the Hurricanes to find continued success.

Haula and Dzingel, two of the offseason additions, have immediately meshed with their new team.  Haula, with seven goals in nine games, has made a huge impact on the power play, picking up three of his goals on the man advantage.  Moreover, he has consistently parked himself in front of the net, making life difficult for the opposing goaltender.

We did get a big scare in Friday’s game against the Ducks, with Haula on the receiving end of a hard hit by Josh Manson.  Haula left the game and did not return, though news has trickled out indicating that the Finnish forward did not suffer a concussion.  Head coach Rod Brind’Amour added that he doesn’t anticipate Haula missing any time:

The Goaltending

For the first time as a head coach, Rod Brind’Amour pulled his goalie in favor of replacement.  While you can’t lay the brunt of the blame at Petr Mrazek’s feet, he had an off night.  Still, his record and GAA aren’t anything to sneeze at, thought his sub-.900 save percentage is less than ideal.  Even then, Mrazek has done a good enough job of keeping his team in the game and giving them a chance to win, and that is the most important thing.

Then you look at James Reimer’s numbers and it gets a bit funny.  His record sits at 500, his GAA is pretty much in line with his platoon mate, but his save percentage is considerably better.  Reimer has faced more total shots (147 vs. 112) and his advanced stats (goals against %, goals saved above average) are better than Mrazek’s.

Both goalies have shown some incredibly solid stretches mixed in with some weak goals.  Again, it’s still very early in the year and Mrazek’s last start against Anaheim did a number on his stats.  We haven’t seen the best that the goalies have to offer but, as the season wears on, the Hurricanes are going to need just that in order to keep pace in the Metropolitan Division.

Final Thoughts

Look, the Hurricanes have won six of their first nine games and they’ve done so while not firing on all cylinders.  Their star center has managed only two goals and three points.  A top-six winger who is expected to be a prominent fixture is also stuck at three points.  Not ideal and, in years past, this may have spelled doom for the team.

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Not this year.

While Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter have struggled, Andrei Svechnikov has had a phenomenal start.  Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel have clicked with the team right off the bat.  Dougie Hamilton has been a star at both ends of the ice.  Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce have been, well, themselves.  For every shortcoming, there has been a response.

Yes, some of these torrid starts will even out over the course of the season but so will the struggles.  This team has the talent, character, and work ethic to make sure of that.  So they’ve lost two games in a row, two very unimpressive outings.  Two games that raised my blood pressure but ultimately mean very little in the grand scheme.

As fans of this franchise, we have all too often grown accustomed to expecting the worst, looking for the black cloud behind every rainbow.  I can’t fault anyone for that because I’ve been along for the same ride, but this isn’t 2014-15 team.

I know the California trip wounded our collective confidence, but it’s over.  This team has 73 games left to fulfill their promise and there are plenty of reasons to believe that they will.

So take a breath, there’s no need to panic.

How do you feel after the dismal California swing?  Who do you think has had the biggest impact on the Hurricanes’ early-season success?