Carolina Hurricanes: Time to Holla for an Erik Haula Extension?

The Injury

After his aforementioned breakout 29-goal performance in 2017-18, things took a turn for Haula that seemingly doomed his time in Sin City. He was demoted from the top-6 after the Knights acquired Max Pacioretty, and Haula was publicly upset with it. “I think of myself as a top-6 forward and that’s my mindset.” Haula said at the time.

But down to the 3rd line he went. And after a slow start compared to his previous season’s standards, Haula played what turned out to be his final for Vegas on November 6, 2018. He suffered a season-ending knee injury which required surgery after a hit by Canes legend Patrick Marleau, and his long road to recovery left his NHL future much in the air.

After having surgery for a very uncommon hockey injury – which Haula described as a “dislocated patella with chipped bone and cartilage”, Haula embarked on a long road to get back on the ice. He couldn’t walk for ten weeks. When he first got the surgery, the doctors told him he would be lucky to be ready for training camp in 2019-20. Haula accelerated that timetable.

He said he had skated about 30 times before the Knights season ended, and was potentially on track to return in the playoffs if the Knights had made it to the second round. Haula said though, that looking back, it’s probably better he didn’t force his return too early. “That will probably make me feel better and last longer, long-term” he said.

The Offseason Trade

Coming off that devastating injury and heading into a contract year, Haula had a bleak outlook in Vegas. The Golden Knights were already a cap-strapped team, and the addition of Pacioretty and long-term extensions to William Karlsson and Alex Tuch phased Haula out of the equation. Which led to his arrival in Raleigh.

The impact he’s had on the Canes’ young season, though, not even Haula could’ve expected. Through 9 games, the Canes’ forward group has scored 18 goals – and only 15 if you don’t include empty netters. Haula has 7 of those goals, and has been a bright spot in every game of the season for this team.

He’s impossible to miss out there. Whether it’s his unmistakably massive rear-end, his great flow haircut or his blazing speed, #56 is an eye-turner every time he steps on the ice. The fans have noticed. The coaching staff has noticed. Now, it’s management’s turn to take notice.

Haula, an impending UFA at the conclusion of this season, is unquestionably due for a massive raise on the 2.75 AAV contract he signed back in 2017. When he signed that deal, his career highs were 15 goals and 34 points. He since had a 29-goal, 55-point explosion in Vegas, and is off to a torrid start with the Hurricanes.

How Much is He Worth Now?

So what exactly is he worth? That’s a really tough question to answer, and could cause a road-block to Haula re-signing with the Canes. He’s been the Hurricanes’ 3rd line center to start, and figures to stay in that slot throughout the season, barring injury.

If he holds true on viewing himself as a top-6 forward, it could cause a sizeable gap in dollars that Haula commands, versus what the Canes would be willing to pay.

When considering a contract for a player, you can’t just base it off their role. Sure, Haula is a 3C, but his production far exceeds that. He kills penalties, and he’s been one of the 6 players on the ice when the Canes have had the goalie pulled trying to tie games late in the 3rd period. He’s also played 17-18 minutes each game, which not a lot of 3rd line players do.

Based on his ice-time, role, production, injury history, and all applicable factors, I looked league wide for some potential comparables for a Haula contract. Bear in mind, the current group of centers slated to be UFAs next summer include Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nicklas Backstrom, Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu, Cody Eakin, Haula, and more.

Which, obviously, could either add or subtract to his value on the open market dependant on how many of those guys reach UFA status. For the comparables, I used production in the couple of seasons before signing the contract, age at the time of signing, and production trends in comparison to Haula. These following players were similar to him:

Kyle Turris – 6 years x 6 million AAV

Frans Nielsen – 6 years x 5.25 million AAV

Nick Schmaltz – 7 years x 5.85 million AAV

Yanni Gourde – 6 years x 5.16 million AAV

Adam Henrique – 5 years x 5.825 million AAV

Judging by the 5 guys mentioned above, who all had similar production to Haula’s form the last couple years when they signed their contracts, one thing is evidently clear: Haula won’t come cheap. If the Hurricanes want to retain this guy, they better be ready to pony up.

Can they? But they’re cap strapped, how will they fit him in?

Fortunately, cap-wise, things will clear up for the Hurricanes after this season. They currently have about 1.75 million of space. Patrick Marleau‘s 6.25 million dollar cap hit will drop off the books for next season. Trevor van Riemsdyk (2.3M) and Joel Edmundson (3.1M) are impending UFAs, and, judging by the Canes prospect depth on D, as well as their presumed desire for raises, could factor themselves out of the Canes plans moving forward.

The Hurricanes Cap Situation

Assuming none of those guys return, the Canes would have upwards of 13 million in cap space, and that’s without accounting for the NHL cap raising league-wide. Aside from TVR and Edmundson, Haula is the only NHL UFA the Hurricanes need to take care of. Their RFAs next summer are Haydn Fleury, Lucas Wallmark and Warren Foegele, neither of whom should command a hefty payday.

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So with all that in mind, the Hurricanes clearly have the way to sign Haula – but do they have the will? With so many team-friendly contracts via their top stars, it makes the signing of a guy like Haula manageable, even with Dougie Hamilton in line for a huge raise in 2021 if he’s to remain with the team.

So now we get to the jist of it all. What’s a fair contract for Erik Haula? It’s not an exact science to project, but based on the comparables around the league, as well as his obvious fit with the Hurricanes, I think a 5-year contract at a 5.5 million AAV would make a lot of sense for both sides moving forward.

The Hurricanes would have their 2/3C of the future, who’s done a ton of good for the team and fits flawlessly in coach Rod’s system. For Haula, he would get some long-term security even with his injury history, as well as a much deserved raise (double) on his current 2.75 million dollar salary.

But I’ll leave it up to you guys, which leads me to my question for CC readers: Should the Hurricanes re-sign Erik Haula, and what’s a fair extension for him?