Carolina Hurricanes: Keys for Metro Success

After their first postseason appearance in a decade, the Carolina Hurricanes have loaded up for another run.  Finding success in the volatile Metropolitan Division will make or break those hopes.

Gauging the NHL’s Metropolitan Division is akin to navigating a minefield while blindfolded, drunk, and riding a hoverboard.  Needless to say, the Carolina Hurricanes have their work cut out for them.  The Washington Capitals, who have won the division in 4 times since its 2013 inception, should still be dangerous.

The Pittsburgh Penguins, winning Stanley Cup championships in 2016 and 2017 while members of the Metro, seem to be slowing down, but they still boast the 1-2 punch of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

The New York Rangers, who won the division in 2015, have expedited their rebuild with the additions of coveted free agent Artemi Panarin and Finnish phenom Kaapo Kakko.  The New Jersey Devils also added key pieces, drafting Jack Hughes and trading for P.K. Subban.  Meanwhile, the New York Islanders, fresh off a surprise 103 point season, lost starting goaltender Robin Lehner to free agency.  To fill his spot, GM Lou Lamoriello brought in the oft-injured Semyon Varlamov.

In Philadelphia, the annual goaltender search looks to have finally reached an end with the impending ascendance of Carter Hart.  The big question is how much he can help the Flyers improve on their -37 goal differential from last season.  If the young goalie finds his groove, the Flyers could end up back in the playoffs.  If not, it could be another long season in Philadelphia.

Free agency bit a number of teams, but none harder than the Columbus Blue Jackets.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen went all-in for the playoffs and while the Jackets won a playoff series, they were knocked out in the second round by the eventual Stanley Cups Finalist Boston Bruins.  The offseason hit the Arch City hard.  Gone are Panarin, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Sergei Bobrovsky.  While they did add Gustav Nyquist, he alone won’t put the Jackets back in the mix.

The Carolina Hurricanes, fresh off an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, had a very busy summer.  They fortified their forward depth with the acquisitions of Erik Haula and Dzingel and added Jake Gardiner and highly-touted collegiate player Chase Priskie to an already stacked blueline.

The question is whether the goaltending can perform at or near last season’s pace.  Petr Mrazek, one half of last year’s tandem, was re-signed while veteran backup Curtis McElhinney left Raleigh for Tampa Bay.  GM Don Waddell was able to unload the Scott Darling contract, picking up seasoned goalie James Reimer in return.  Swedish netminder Anton Forsberg was added in a trade with Chicago over the summer.  Both will face competition for the backup role from Alex Nedeljkovic, fresh off a Calder Cup Championship.

So, let’s take a look at the division and what the Carolina Hurricanes will need to do against their Metro counterparts.

Columbus Blue Jackets

As we’ve established, Columbus had a very, very rough summer.  Panarin was the big loss up front and his production (28g; 59a; 87p) will need a committee effort to replace.  Veteran Cam Atkinson will need another big season, though it seems unlikely that he’ll touch last year’s 41 goal output.  There is promise in the forward corps with emerging youngsters Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alexandre Texier.  If both take strides forward it will go a long way in helping the Blue Jackets’ cause.  Nyquist, who scored 60 points (22g; 38a) last year will help.

Arguably the biggest loss was Bobrovsky.  The Russian keeper won 213 games over his 7-year stint in Columbus.  During that time he maintained a 2.41 goals-against average and a save percentage of .921, complimented by 33 shutouts.  Picking up the slack is 25-year-old Joonas Korpisalo.  Over 4 seasons, Korpisalo posted 41 wins with decent stats (2.89GAA; .907SV%; 1SO) but he has never been pressed to play in more than 31 games during any given season.

Splitting time with Korpisalo will be Elvis Merzlikins.  While the 25-year-old Latvian has yet to play in the NHL, he has been impressive playing for HC Lugano in Switzerland as well as several international tournaments.  How well he adapts to the NHL game will be key for the fortunes of the Blue Jackets.

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Keep up the pressure – Columbus gave up the 7th lowest shots against last year and, when they did give up shots, Bobrovsky was there to bail them out.  With 2 young goalies in the mix, the Hurricanes need to fully utilize their offensive depth, drive the net, set up screens, and pepper the tenders with shots.
• Play physical – You can easily tie this in with my first point, but I wanted to focus on it separately.  Yes, physical play is a huge component of driving play.  Yes, penalties will result from it, however, for all the struggles the Carolina Hurricanes had on the man advantage, Columbus was worse, finishing 28th in the league (15.38%).

New Jersey Devils

Five years after Martin Brodeur played his last game in New Jersey (has it really been that long?), the Devils are in the midst of a new era.  Dynamic forwards Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier lead the way up front, soon to be joined by Jack Hughes and Nikita Gusev.  Veteran Wayne Simmonds was added to provide a net-front presence.

Offense was at a premium last year, with the Devils finishing 25th in the league with 219 goals.  A large part of this can be attributed to Hall missing 49 games with a knee injury.  A healthy Taylor Hall is an absolute necessity for the Devils to gain ground this year.

The Devils power play struggled last year, finishing just below the Hurricanes.  GM Ray Shero helped address this by adding P.K. Subban from the Nashville Predators.  Over the last 3 seasons, Subban has picked up 51 points (10g; 41a) on the man advantage.  That type of production will go a long way for the Devils finding consistent success.

After 3 solid seasons in New Jersey (69W; 2.13GAA; .923SV%; 12SO), the play of Cory Schneider dipped over the past 3 seasons (43W; 2.94GAA; .906SV%; 4SO).  An abdominal injury derailed Schneider last year.  MacKenzie Blackwood (10W; 2.61GAA; .918SV%; 2SO) performed amiably in his first season.

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Stay out of the box – Yeah, the Devils’ power play was bad last year, but the additions of Subban, Hughes, and Simmonds, along with a healthy Hall could easily boost their conversion rate.  The Hurricanes shouldn’t volunteer to test that.
• Fight speed with speed – While the Carolina Hurricanes have plenty of speed, the Devils are no slouches in that regard.  The defense has to be able to match the speed of oncoming forwards and execute clean breakout passes to allow the likes of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, and company to flex their offensive muscles.

New York Islanders

One of the biggest surprises of the 2018-19 season was the New York Islanders.  After losing franchise center John Tavares in free agency, the Islanders and their fans needed a reason to hope.  New coach Barry Trotz delivered, quickly installing his system and getting his players to buy in.  As a result, the Islanders led the NHL by allowing only 191 goals.

Conversely, the Islanders were 22nd in the league offensively, scoring 223 goals.  Matthew Barzal, Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Anders Lee (the top 4 scorers) are all back for 19-20.  Joining them is Derick Brassard, coming off of a 3 team, 23 point season.  If Barzal continues his progression and the team gets more offensive support, they could find themselves back in the playoffs.

The big change comes in goal.  Robin Lehner, coming off his best overall season (25W; 2.13GAA; .930SV%; 6SO) and taking home the Jennings and Masterton trophies, departed for Chicago.  In comes Semyon Varlamov after 8 up and down seasons with the Colorado Avalanche.  There’s no question that Varlamov is a talented goalkeeper, however, he comes with two question marks: consistency and health.

Over the last two seasons alone, the Russian goalie has missed time on 5 different occasions.  Hip and knee issues have hampered him for much of his career.  The Islanders do have a solid backup in Thomas Greiss, but a healthy Varlamov could help them immensely.

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Drive the play – The Hurricanes have enough speed and offensive depth to mount a sustained attack against the Islanders’ strong defensive scheme.  The key is not to overextend and allow Barzal and company to generate offense in transition.  The Islanders may not be the most offensively talented team in the league, but the Carolina Hurricanes must respect their transition game.
• Precise puck movement – Varlamov and Greiss are skilled goaltenders that are going to stop most shots when they’re allowed to get set.  The Hurricanes need to execute precision passes to open of the defense and get the goalie moving.  With Varlamov’s lower body history, it stands to reason that you want to force him to move laterally as much as you can.

New York Rangers

The last 2 seasons haven’t been kind to the Rangers.  After losing to the Ottawa Senators in the second round back in 2017, the Blueshirts put up 77 points in 2017-18 and 78 points last season.

The Rangers entered a soft rebuild during this time, parting with Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Hayes, and Kevin Shattenkirk, among others.  The summer of 2019 gave that rebuild a boost with the acquisitions of Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox, and Artemi Panarin.  To top it off, the Rangers held the second overall pick at the draft, which they used to select Kaapo Kakko.

While those additions will help boost their 23rd-ranked offense, the focus shifts to preventing goals. The Rangers allowed the 9th fewest goals (267) in 2018-19 despite franchise mainstay Henrik Lundqvist having a subpar season (18W; 3.07GAA; .907SV%; 0SO).  There’s no taking away from what the Swedish goalie has meant to his team but, at 37, you have to begin to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank.

Twenty-three-year-old Alexandar Georgiev has looked good in 43 appearances over 2 seasons (18W; 2.96GAA; .915SV%; 2SO) behind some bad Ranger teams.  23-year-old Igor Shesterkin is also in the pipeline.

https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/1094800925133340672

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Use speed to draw penalties – The Rangers finished 18-19 with the 5th worst penalty kill (78.2%) in the NHL.  Carolina has the speed to cross defenders up and draw penalties and, if Haula, Dzingel, and Gardiner can help right the Carolina Hurricanes’ power play, these matchups could play a big role.
• Stay out of the box – Despite their offensive woes, the Rangers power play was in the middle of the pack at 19.38%.  Panarin, Kakko, and Trouba will undoubtedly help raise that number.  The Hurricanes need to make sure that they’re not helping the Rangers out.

Philadelphia Flyers

The 2018-19 season bore witness to the Flyers dropping 16 points in the standings, missing the playoffs for the third time in five seasons.  New GM Chuck Fletcher (hired in December of 2018) went out after the season and hired Alain Vigneault to replace Scott Gordon (who replaced Dave Hakstol shortly after Fletcher became GM).  Vigneault, who has 648 wins in 1216 games, brings plenty of experience to the Flyers.

Philadelphia finished the 18-19 season 18th in goals for (241) while allowing the third most goals against (280).  Fletcher set out to address both areas over the summer.  Up front, he signed Kevin Hayes to give the Flyers a reliable #2 center.  While Claude Giroux didn’t hit 100 points again, he did manage a very respectable 85 points (22g; 63a).  Sean Couturier matched his 17-18 output (76p) in two fewer games.  He should be a lock for 30+ goals and 70+ points once again.

Fletcher also made a couple of moves to add veteran leadership to the blueline.  Justin Braun was brought over in a trade with San Jose on June 18th.  Braun, 32, has typically been a reliable defender, though last season saw him post the worst plus/minus (-14) of his career.  Four days prior, Fletcher shipped Radko Gudas to the Washington Capitals in return for Matt Niskanen.  While neither move puts their defense over the top, both are solid, veteran pieces to compliment the Flyers’ young defensemen.

Goaltending, long the bane of Flyers fans, could very well be on the road to salvation.  Philadelphia utilized eight goalies last season and Carter Hart posted the best numbers (16W; 2.83GAA; .917SV%) of the lot.  If he can pick that up this season it will bode very well for the Flyers.  He’ll likely split time with Brian Elliott.  Elliott, in a season where he lost 3 months to a lower-body injury, struggled, going 11-11-1 with a 2.96GAA and .907SV%.

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Keep those four lines rolling – The Carolina Hurricanes arguably have the most forward depth that they’ve ever had and head coach Rod Brind’Amour loves using all of his lines.  The Flyers’ depth isn’t equal so the Hurricanes can exploit matchups to keep the pressure up.  The Flyers finished last season with the 26th ranked penalty kill (78.48%) and 23rd ranked power play (17.09%), so the Hurricanes can play aggressively.
• Take your shots – The Flyers gave up 33 shots per game on average, 10th highest in the league.  The Carolina Hurricanes racked up 2822 shots last season (34 per game average), placing them at the top of the league.  If the Hurricanes, with their reloaded offense, can keep that pressure up they’re sure to be rewarded.

Washington Capitals

The reigning division champs have made a few moves since Brock McGinn‘s Game 7 overtime winner ended their season back in April.  Underachieving winger Andre Burakovsky was shipped off to the Colorado Avalanche.  Versatile forward Brett Connolly, coming off of a season where he posted career-highs in goals (22), assists (24), and points (46), signed on with the Florida Panthers.

GM Brian MacLellan brought in Richard Panik on a sweetheart deal to help fill the void left by Connoly’s departure.  Carl Hagelin, acquired in a February trade with the Los Angeles Kings, will help ease the loss of Burakovsky.

Alex Ovechkin is coming off of his eighth 50-goal season, posting his highest goal output since 2014-15.  At 33, Father Time should start corroding his offense, but then again Ovechkin isn’t your ordinary NHLer.  Complimenting him are Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and 70-point blueliner John Carlson.  One point of interest will be in how the NHL responds to Kuznetsov lying during an investigation into his drug abuse.

On the blueline, Matt Niskanen was traded to Philadelphia for Radko Gudas.  While Niskanen’s play has deteriorated, I just don’t like Gudas.  I have no doubt that situation will worsen this season.  Having said that, I acknowledge that he has proven himself adept at shot suppression.  Veteran defender (and persona non grata) Brooks Orpik retired after 16 seasons.

The Capitals, as expected, did well offensively, slotting 5th in the league with 274 goals (3.34 per game).  They did that on 2492 shots (30.39 per game), posting a second place-worthy 11% shooting percentage, trailing only the Tampa Bay Lighting.  On the defensive side, they allowed 2584 shots (31.5 per game) and posted a team save percentage of .904.

Braden Holtby was solid as usual, his numbers improving from a somewhat subpar 2017-18, though still well below the bar he set from 2010-2017.  Third-year backstop Pheonix Copley saw action in 27 games, posting numbers slightly below those of Holtby.

https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1170367371221131265

Keys for the Hurricanes:

• Line-for-line – The Capitals have 4 good lines and coach Todd Reirden won’t hesitate to roll them all.  Rod Brind’Amour, gifted with perhaps the best depth the Hurricanes have ever had, will readily utilize every player on the bench.  If new additions like Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel mesh with their teammates, the Carolina Hurricanes will be able to ice dangerous lines at any point of the game.
• Focused energy – To say that this spring’s first-round matchup featured some drama is a gross understatement.  Combine the number of times these teams will face each other with the fact that hockey players have long memories and we’re set to see some fireworks.  The Hurricanes have to focus that energy constructively and not let their emotions get the better of them.  The less we see Ovechkin on the power play, the better.

Closing Thoughts

The Carolina Hurricanes are in position to expand on last season’s success.  Don Waddell has deftly navigated the offseason and added pieces to supplement the talent already in place.  The unfortunate thing is that several of their divisional rivals improved over the summer as well, meaning the Hurricanes are going to have to work for every point they get.  Rod Brind’Amour is a coach that will make sure that happens.

Despite the uncertainty of some teams, there will be no nights off in the Metro.  It’s going to be a bloodbath, eight teams fighting for their lives.  Some are underdogs, others are top dogs.  Some are on the ascent while others are watching their championship windows grow narrower.

One thing is certain: we’re going to see some outstanding hockey.

How do you think the Hurricanes will fare in the gauntlet of the Metropolitan Division?  Who will be the division’s top team?