3 Keys for the Carolina Hurricanes to Make the Playoffs in 2020
Last season, the Carolina Hurricanes ended their drought and brought playoff hockey back to Raleigh. To get there again, a few questions have to be answered.
The 2009 NHL playoffs brought some great memories for Carolina Hurricanes fans: from tying and then beating the New Jersey Devils with under 2 minutes left in Game 7 of the opening round to Scott Walker‘s overtime winner in another seventh game, Caniacs were left with a lot of very fond memories.
Part of the reason those memories remain so vivid for many of us is the fact that the Hurricanes missed the dance in each of the following 9 seasons. Many nights at PNC Arena were spent looking for Rob Schneider from The Waterboy or perhaps the groundskeepers from Major League. Yes, I’m dating myself with those references and I’m okay with that.
A lot of things went right for the Hurricanes last season, some of which were unexpected. With teams like the Devils and New York Rangers having solid offseasons and the continued existence of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin, the Metropolitan Division won’t do the Hurricanes any favors.
While you can look at any number of factors (and we all do), I’m pinpointing 3 specific areas in which the Carolina Hurricanes need to have success to stay in the playoff race.
Offense
The Carolina Hurricanes finished the 2018-19 season with 245 goals, placing them in the middle of the pack offensively. Respectable, but it’s going to take more than that in 2019-20. Not only did the Metro see improvement for several teams, but the Eastern Conference as a whole should provide a more difficult test this season.
Sebastian Aho, who set career highs across the board last year, is just 22 and has likely not reached his NHL ceiling. Even if he doesn’t see as big a leap offensively, he should undoubtedly be a point-per-game player this season. Teuvo Teravainen continued his upward trend, finishing the 19-20 campaign at just under the point-per-game mark and should be there again.
Andrei Svechnikov is poised to make strides in his sophomore season following a rookie effort that saw the skilled winger pot 20 goals. He’ll face tougher opposition this year as he’s secured his place in the upper end of the lineup. A full season from Nino Niederreiter also bodes well for the Hurricanes.
The team lost Micheal Ferland, who netted 17 goals and 40 points last season but made a couple of key pickups with the additions of Erik Haula (29 goals in 17-18) and Ryan Dzingel (26 goals last season). While neither player brings the physical edge that Ferland did, each player should easily make up for the offensive loss.
The wild card comes in the form of Martin Necas, who will have every opportunity to earn a roster spot with the big club this fall. The talented center (who will likely be broken in on the wing) followed up a strong performance with the Czech Republic under-20 team by notching 35 points in 49 games with the Charlotte Checkers.
On the blueline, the quartet of Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce combined for 44 goals, led by Hamilton’s 18. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s total marked the highest single-season goal output by a Hurricane’s defenseman since their arrival in North Carolina 22 years ago and he was the 5th ranked goal scorer for the team last year.
Note: the tweet below also includes playoff goals
Most goals in a season, @NHLCanes / Whalers defensemen (including playoffs):
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 16, 2019
25 – Mark Howe in 1979-80
22 – Zarley Zalapski in 1991-92
20 – Dougie Hamilton in 2018-19#NHLStats #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/wIJCPWwunQ
The forward depth is great heading into the new season, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. The Hurricanes need consistency from their top-end players if they hope to get back into the playoffs.
Goaltending
How can you have a post discussing what the Carolina Hurricanes need in order to succeed without mentioning goaltending? You can’t. While that’s true for any team, it holds especially true for the Hurricanes.
A pre-season injury to Scott Darling allowed the tandem of Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney to steal the show last year. The dual storylines (a young goalie trying to show he belongs and the well-traveled vet having his best season at age 35) were compelling on and off the ice, culminating with the pair getting the Hurricanes back into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Now, with both Darling and McElhinney gone, Mrazek is set to battle for time in the crease with a new crop of netminders. James Reimer, acquired from the Florida Panthers in the Darling trade, spent 3 seasons in South Florida with mixed results. While his first season there wasn’t bad, his stats declined in each of the 2 following years.
Over a month after being acquired, Reimer was finally issued a number with the Hurricanes:
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) August 12, 2019
Jersey numbers for James Reimer & Gustav Forsling! pic.twitter.com/HMC47wivEB
It’s important to note that Reimer didn’t have the best defensive support with the Panthers, a problem that shouldn’t be repeated with the Hurricanes. Through 9 years, he sits at a 2.81 GAA and a .914 save percentage, not too dissimilar to McElhinney’s career stats.
Twenty-three-year-old Alex Nedeljkovic will be pushing to stay in Raleigh after a very strong season in Charlotte. While he’s only played 90 minutes in the NHL, they’ve been really good minutes and the Hurricanes will give him the opportunity to show if he has what it takes to become an NHL regular.
Also factoring in is Anton Forsberg, acquired in a June trade with the Chicago Blackhawks. The 26-year-old Swedish netminder hasn’t put up great stats at the NHL level (11-24, 3.21 GAA, .901 save percentage) but has been serviceable at the AHL level. Despite being awarded a one-year, one-way contract for $775,000 after his arbitration hearing, Forsberg’s status with the Hurricanes remains unclear.
The fact that the Hurricanes allowed the third-fewest shots against and ranked sixth in goals-against is promising for whichever goalie is in the net. That said, every goalie that is called upon has to perform well if the Hurricanes want to build on their strong 2018-19 season.
Special Teams
I’ll be nice and start with the positives. The Carolina Hurricanes finished last season with a penalty-kill ranking eighth overall (81.6%). If the goaltending holds up, I don’t see a reason why they can’t finish high on the PK again in 2019-20. However, if the goaltending falters, all bets are off.
The real problem with special teams lies with the power play. The Hurricanes finished last season with a 17.8% conversion with the man-advantage, placing them 20th in the league. Not good. Of the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason, only 4 had worse regular-season power plays than the Hurricanes. Things got worse in the postseason with that number dropping below ten percent, putting them third-to-last.
The additions of Haula and Dzingel should help, but the issue is not solely one of on-ice talent. Too many times the Hurricanes looked stagnant on the power play, being forced to the perimeter and not utilizing their passing to thin out coverage. I think we can all agree that unscreened shots to the goalie’s chest are not a part of the recipe for success.
The Hurricanes have to be more effective with the advantage. No, that’s not a breakthrough idea, we all know it. Someone has to set up shop in front of the opposing goalie and make their life miserable. The passing has to be quicker and we need to see more low, deflectable shots. Most NHL goalies are going to stop most of the shots that they can see so the Hurricanes have to focus on keeping them moving to open up holes and screening them to take away their vision.
Image how many more points in the standings the Hurricanes could have had last season if the power play had been deadlier (to the opposition, that is). Is it possible that they qualify for the playoffs again with a middling power play? Yes, but it would be so much easier if the team can properly address this issue. On the other hand, you can pretty much kiss any playoff hopes goodbye if the power play drops lower.
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What say you? Will the Carolina Hurricanes return to the playoffs in 2020?