Carolina Hurricanes: Odds Each Player Is On The Opening Night Roster

Each member of the Carolina Hurricanes 2019 Eastern Conference runner up team wants to control their decision on their playing future next year. But as we all know, that just isn’t the case in pro sports for all players.

When you combine free agency, trades, retirements, contracts not renewed, buyouts, the draft and guys from the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers, the formula for who is a Hurricane on opening night in October gets a little tricky.

Let’s analyze each player that skated two or more playoff games this post season and make some odds of if they are on the opening night roster. It’s important to understand this includes the 20 guys that will dress, healthy scratches and members of the injured reserve.

99 Percent Chance

While the players on this list are almost locks to be a Hurricane next season, no one should ever believe “untouchable” type comments about players. If Wayne Gretzky can be traded, anyone can be traded or not re-signed. And there isn’t a player on the roster the Hurricanes would not be willing to move if someone like Connor McDavid became available.

Saying that, there are three Restricted Free Agents that are almost a lock to get a new contract with the Hurricanes. NHL rules are set in place to protect a team’s draft pick. If a Restricted Free Agent is given an offer from another NHL team, the team they played for previously has the right to match that contract. If they do, the player must sign with their current team or not play in the NHL.

This is fantastic news for Carolina when it comes to Sebastian Aho. Coming off a career year that included leading the team in points in both the regular season and playoffs, Aho is set to become a very rich man. Expect General Manager Don Waddell to ensure that Aho is a Hurricane for the foreseeable future any day now.

Other Restricted Free Agents that should return to Carolina include Saku Maenalanen and Brock McGinn. Maenalanen was a pleasant surprise this season playing in 34 games and amassing 8 points along the way. McGinn continues to be a important piece on the third line, penalty killing and providing energy. Adding a game 7 overtime winner to his resume doesn’t hurt either.

While Warren Feogle and Andrei Svechnikov are not pending free agents, they are still on entry level contracts, which makes them Restricted Free Agents when their contracts end. There is almost no chance – unless it was a true blockbuster trade – that either of these guys are moved. Carolina simply does not want to forfeit their future Restricted Free Agent rights with them.

Also unlikely to be moved is fan favorite, team favorite and true grit guy Jordan Martinook. While he did have off-season surgery, he is expected to be fully recovered by training camp. Combine this with a fresh new contract prior to hitting free agency in July, and Martinook will be a Hurricane next season.

The rest of the 99 percent crew include Teuvo Teravainen, who is signed through 2025, Jordan Staal, signed through 2024 and Nino Niederreiter, signed through 2022. Each of three players are a core part of this team aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

95 Percent Chance

If there is going to be a big trade this summer, logic points to a scorer coming to Carolina and a defensemen heading out. Carolina has arguably eight guys that could be on the opening night blue line, so it’s hard to put any defensemen in the 99 percent category.

Saying that, Jaccob Slavin is without a doubt the one pretty much lock to be one of those six defensemen. Slavin had an incredible playoffs that basically did one thing; showed the hockey world what Carolina Hurricanes’ fans have been talking about since his rookie year – Jaccob Slavin is a heck of a hockey player.

Slavin is locked in through 2026 and recently adopted a young baby. He and his wife are settled in to Raleigh and nothing indicates he would ever request a trade. When you combine his incredible personality, his love of being here, his long contract and his ability, Slavin won’t be moved this off-season.

80 Percent Chance

And this, as they say, is where things get interesting. If you look at the situation on the blue line, combined with Jake Bean in Charlotte just waiting for his chance to make it to Raleigh, there is almost no way to predict what six (or likely seven with a healthy scratch) guys are playing opening night as a group of seven.

Looking at each individual player makes this process a tad easier. Brett Pesce is signed through 2025, Calvin De Haan through 2022,  and both Justin Faulk and Trevor Van Riemsdyk are inked through the end of next season. Hadyn Fleury is a pending Restricted Free Agent and almost a lock to resign, but could start the year in Charlotte, not Raleigh.

If there is a guy from this list that would appear to be the most likely to moved if Fleury, Bean, a random free agent or a piece included in some big trade were added to the blue line, Van Riesmdyk makes the most sense to be moved. He’s a pending Unrestricted Free Agent at the conclusion of the upcoming season – meaning he can sign wherever he wants. But he will start the year on the Injured Reserve and that means the chances of him being the guy moved are much slimmer.

The next likely person moved, based on this has to be Justin Faulk. Faulk would attract top level talent from other teams needing a 25 minute a night defensemen. However Faulk has a no trade clause so any trade that he doesn’t like simply doesn’t happen.

With all that in mind, if a trade happens with one of these guys, it likely will include a smaller, cheaper piece that probably does not fit into the long term puzzle. Enter Lucas Wallmark. Not only is Wallmark solid in the bottom 6, he would be an easy partner in this big trade everyone talks about. He’s cheap, reliable and a pending Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of 2020.

70 Percent Chance

Adding to the complex defense situation – and the only guy of the eight possible current Hurricanes blue liners we haven’t mentioned yet – is Dougie Hamilton. Simply put, if this blue liner for scorer deal happens, Hamilton is absolutely the most likely of the group to be moved.

Hamilton is signed through 2021 which really adds to him being the guy. His new team would get a power play and goal scoring machine, a guy who just went through a playoff race and a player not on expiring deal. If it doesn’t work out? No problem, easily move him in the next off season or don’t re-sign him after 2021. The risk reward for a team with Hamilton is so low, it just makes the most sense.

The Van Riesmdyk injury – and the fact that De Haan may not be 100 percent to start the year either – point towards thinking the opening night blue line is Slavin, Pesce, Faulk, De Haan, Hamilton and Fleury – but those odds have to be at best 50 percent.

Individually speaking, there is really good chance that 7 of these 8 defensemen mentioned are Hurricanes. But who the odd man out is really is the question of the off-season. It could be as simple as Bean needs another year and they stick with this seven. Or we could see two or three moved. It’s really up in the air at this point.

60 Percent Chance

What’s even more complicated than the blue line situation? How about four goalies, one set to be bought out and the other three set to be free agents. Such is life for Carolina when it comes to the position between the pipes.

Scott Darling doesn’t qualify for the conversation under the “dress two playoff game” provision set at the start, but his name has to be mentioned in what happens with the netminders. His odds aren’t 60 percent – they are less than 1 percent – but it makes sense to discuss him here.

Darling was nothing short of a disaster in his time in Carolina. Signed as the presumed starter, Darling eventually was reduced to backup role and then lost even that very early in the season. A short stint in Charlotte led to a leave of absence and suddenly more people know where Jimmy Hoffa is than Scott Darling. Carolina will buy out the remainder of his deal.

Petr Mrazek had a career year and his compliment in net, Curtis McElhinney, proved to be one of the more reliable back ups in the league last year. Both will be Unrestricted Free Agents come July 1 and both could easily generate some interest.

Combine the play of Alex Nedljkovic this past season in Charlotte where he lead the Checkers to Calder Cup and won the Aldege “Baz” Bastien Memorial Award for Outstanding Goaltender in the American Hockey League, and it’s really going to be interesting to see which two guys are on the ice for the Hurricanes in October.

Carolina has made their intentions clear about their plans for Mrazek and McElhinney – they want both of them “in the fold.” But what exactly does that mean?

There is still potential for Carolina to grab a top tier goalie elsewhere, too. Sergei Bobrovsky, Semyon Varlamov and Mike Smith – all playoff starting goalies this year – are likely to hit the open market. Does Carolina try to grab one of these guys and then have one of the three other guys back him up?

Nedlkovic, as a Restricted Free Agent, will absolutely be resigned but where he starts is the only question. Individually, one of the three will be a Hurricane at the start of the year, but who that one is is completely up the air.

There is also the chance that all three are given new deals with the assumption that Mrazek is the starter. This gives Carolina the option to have McElhinney and Nedljkovic battle it out for the number two spot. If McElhinney wins the job, Nedljkovic goes back to Charlotte. If Nedljkovic does, McElhinney is put on waivers.

20 Percent Chance

There are very few scenarios that see Patrick Brown, Clark Bishop and Michael Ferland as Hurricanes next year. Each of the three all come down to three very different reasons all with the same result – probably wear a different uniform in October.

Patrick Brown was an unlikely playoff mainstay due to injuries to Ferland, Maenalanen and Martinook at various points throughout the three series. Brown quickly returned to Charlotte at the completion of the Eastern Conference Finals and Captained the Checkers to the Calder Cup.  As an Unrestricted Free Agent, he will be looking for a one way deal and that isn’t coming from Carolina. He either signs elsewhere or starts the year in Charlotte.

Clark Bishop is a Restricted Free Agent and while not as guaranteed as the other restricted guys to get a contract offer, likely will sign. At this point, it’s just a simple numbers game. Even if Necas isn’t ready, Williams retires and a player from the main roster is traded, a free agent signing or player involved in a trade has a much better chance of being on the roster. Look for Bishop in Charlotte.

The really interesting person in this group to look at is Micheal Ferland.  A pending Unrestricted Free Agent that is young, physical, scored 17 goals and can play on any single line will get lots of attention in free agency. Even in January, where Ferland would be signing in the off season was a hot topic.

With Aho needing a lot of money and the Hurricanes looking to upgrade scoring, Ferland seems to be the odd man out. If he is willing to take a short term deal for less than $2 million to stay in Carolina, the Hurricanes would re-sign him. But not only will Ferland ask for more money, plenty of teams will be willing to give it to him.

Question for Readers:

Which of the 60 percent or less crowd do you think is a Hurricane next season?