Carolina Hurricanes: Four Keys to a Game One Win

Win The Special Teams Battle

If there is a recipe to beating the Washington Capitals, the main ingredient is staying out of the penalty box.  Washington had the tenth best power play in the NHL this year at 20.8% and scored power play goals in two of their wins over Carolina.

Players like Tom Wilson agitate the other the team and not retaliating will be crucial for success. T.J. Oshie and Alex Ovechkin lead the playoffs last year in Power Play Goals and John Carlson was tied for fourth. The Capitals rode their potent power play throughout the playoffs.

The good news is only six teams had more penalty minutes than Carolina. However, should the inevitable happen – a Washington power play – Carolina does have one of the stingier penalty kills in the NHL. Ranking eleventh, the Hurricanes killed 82.2% of their man disadvantages.

One way to combat the mighty Capitals power play is score on your own power plays. While Carolina ranked 20th in the NHL, the power play unit has looked completely different as of late as Carolina has scored five power play goals in their last five games.

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Bottom line, Washington will win the game if they have three more chances on the power play than Carolina. Carolina does not have to “win” the special teams game so to speak, but the box score needs to show that Carolina at worst matched Washington’s special teams’ output at the end of the night.

Solve Braden Holtby

There is a reason that Braden Holtby has been two four straight All-Star games, won the Vezina Trophy for the league’s top goaltender and has his name on the Stanley Cup; he’s a world class goaltender who does his job extremely well.

Holtby has played every minute of the four games against Carolina this year and won all four with a 91.81 save percentage in those games. If you take out the five goals he allowed in a December win, Holtby has allowed only five goals against Carolina in the other three games.

Of the 10 goals Holtby has allowed, three have been scored on the power play (four if you count Dougie Hamilton’s goal on a delayed penalty), two on breakaways, and two on what were basically Washington making errors in clearing a puck. The two that weren’t in these category? A face-off win in the offensive zone where Sebastian Aho won a draw and then Carolina got a good bounce and then this highlight real goal from Warren Foegele.

Holtby does not give up bad goals. To score on him, Carolina has to do the dirty work, draw penalties, take advantage of mistakes and win offensive zone draws. There simply was not a goal scored by Carolina on Holtby, except Foegele’s, where Carolina just beat him clean.

Help Mrazek Out

One of the biggest reasons the Hurricanes are back in the playoffs has been the play of the goalies. Petr Mrazek has been outstanding and will in all likelihood get the start, but he can’t do it alone.

There is one thing that no one disputes – Washington has loads of offensive talent. Alex Ovechkin lead the league in goals for the eight time in his hall of fame career and he isn’t alone. Washington boasts seven 20 goal scorers and was fifth in total goals scored.

Even if Mrazek is completely on his game, you can only expect him to make so many brilliant saves against an offense as potent as Washington. Simply put, if he is hung out to dry over and over, Washington will eventually take advantage.

With Calvin De Haan likely not in the lineup with an upper body injury, Haydn Fluery will likely be the sixth defenseman to dress. He along with the rest of the defensive group will need to be completely on their game and do their best to avoid high quality chances from Washington. While unlikely, Carolina could call on rookie Jake Bean who was recalled this week.

If Carolina wins this game and this series, it will be in large part due to the play of the blue liners. If players like Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce are making noticeable contributions in their own end, this is a good sign that Carolina is helping their net-minder out.

Do Not Overthink This!

There are many reasons why Carolina is in the playoffs and many reasons why they can win game one. Carolina absolutely has to stick to their game and keep doing what has earned them this chance.

What does that mean? First off, keep up the shot differential. Carolina led the NHL in shot differential – and it wasn’t even close. Their style of play is very demanding and can wear a team out. This style also draws penalties and this means less power play time for Washington.

While the top line of Justin Williams, Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter is where the scoring starts, this team consistently scores from everywhere. Rookie Andrei Svechnikov plays on the third line and scored 20 times in his first season in the NHL. Dougie Hamilton led the offensive production for a defensive core with an 18 goal campaign, good enough for second in the NHL for defenseman.

This team has plenty of momentum and should not try to worry about the little things. Their hard work, style of play, confidence and ability to score big goals is what led them to third best record in the NHL since December 31.

If Carolina stays out of the penalty box, scores some dirty goals, helps out Mrazek and keeps doing what has gotten to them to this point, there’s little doubt they can take the early series lead. If these things do not go the Hurricanes way, it will take some Washington errors for this to be a Hurricane victory.

Question for CC Readers: Who do you have taking game one?