Carolina Hurricanes: 3 comparisons for Sebastian Aho’s next contract

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 15: Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes looks on during a face-off against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on January 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 15: Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes looks on during a face-off against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on January 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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The Western comparison – Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl recently scored his 100th career goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. He’s one of two game-changers on the Edmonton Oilers, and is being paid commensurately. His eight-year deal, signed in the summer of 2017, saw the German receive an AAV of $8.5m and a NMC in the last three years of the deal.

Draisaitl’s numbers to that point were impacted by an underwhelming rookie season, which is almost the hallmark of the Oilers’ prospect development over recent years. When he signed that deal, he had recorded 191 GP, with a scoring record of 50-87-137. Clearly he’s taken a further step since then (131 points in 128 games since), but just compare those numbers to Aho’s first 191 GP, where Seabass had 64-83-147. I’m not making this up – Sebastian Aho out-produced Leon Draisaitl over their first 191 career GP.

Now, it would be a stretch for Aho to receive an AAV of $8.5m – but Draisaitl’s deal is almost certainly the outlier in any negotiations. How far the Canes can get it below this figure is down to Don Waddell’s negotiating skills.

Likelihood of exceeding Nylander’s deal: 10%