Carolina Hurricanes: 3 comparisons for Sebastian Aho’s next contract
The obvious comparison – William Nylander
The most common comparable for an Aho extension remains the deal signed by William Nylander at the tail end of November. Nylander’s situation was unusual, as he had the Maple Leafs over a barrel knowing they couldn’t afford to let him sit for the season. The media circus over his deal continues, and it’s not been productive for anyone involved. While Nylander’s production since returning to the team has been barely worth an AAV of $3m, his production before signing that extension was eerily similar to that of Sebastian Aho’s.
In his first three seasons in the NHL Nylander registered 185 GP, posting a 48-87-135 record. Aho’s first 185 career GP saw him post a 60-80-140 record. Those are two very similar levels of production, though you’d have to think that Aho would receive a slight premium for goals scored.
First 19 games for Nylander: 3 points
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) January 24, 2019
Last 5 periods for Nylander: 3 points https://t.co/UTSK0MltDr
However, the Carolina Hurricanes will have to contend with what has happened since those first 185 GP. Nylander has 21 GP since returning to the Maple Leafs, and has just 1-6-7 to his name, while Aho’s next 21GP saw him post a fantastic 14-11-25 record. William Nylander received his deal and is only just now recovering his form, while Sebastian Aho simply continues to improve. Based on this alone, Aho’s deal figures to be higher than Nylander’s.
Likelihood of exceeding Nylander’s deal: 75%
The Western comparison – Leon Draisaitl
Leon Draisaitl recently scored his 100th career goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. He’s one of two game-changers on the Edmonton Oilers, and is being paid commensurately. His eight-year deal, signed in the summer of 2017, saw the German receive an AAV of $8.5m and a NMC in the last three years of the deal.
Draisaitl’s numbers to that point were impacted by an underwhelming rookie season, which is almost the hallmark of the Oilers’ prospect development over recent years. When he signed that deal, he had recorded 191 GP, with a scoring record of 50-87-137. Clearly he’s taken a further step since then (131 points in 128 games since), but just compare those numbers to Aho’s first 191 GP, where Seabass had 64-83-147. I’m not making this up – Sebastian Aho out-produced Leon Draisaitl over their first 191 career GP.
Now, it would be a stretch for Aho to receive an AAV of $8.5m – but Draisaitl’s deal is almost certainly the outlier in any negotiations. How far the Canes can get it below this figure is down to Don Waddell’s negotiating skills.
Likelihood of exceeding Nylander’s deal: 10%
The dangerous comparison – Evgeny Kuznetsov
Evgeny Kuznetsov was the recipient of an 8-year, $7.8m AAV extension from the Washington Capitals in the summer of 2017, complete with a modified NTC in years 3-8. Prior to signing that deal, Kuznetsov had no Stanley Cup ring, and had just 53-129-182 on his CV in 261 GP. Sebastian Aho has 75-96-171 in 210 GP, and if you extrapolate his current scoring to a full 82 games, his record by the end of the season will be 89-118-207 in 242 GP. This is why Kuznetsov is the dangerous comparison.
To make matters worse, Kuznetsov’s deal took up more of the Capitals’ cap space due to the NHL salary cap being lower at the time – if you’re Aho’s agent, do you look at Kuznetsov’s extension and ask for more? Common sense would dictate he do just that.
With all this in mind, the Carolina Hurricanes will surely be looking to keep Aho’s deal down closer to William Nylander’s deal – but you can bet that Aho’s agent will look to drive the deal north of Kuznetsov’s.
Likelihood of exceeding Nylander’s deal: 30%
How much is Sebastian Aho likely to get?
Bearing in mind how Sebastian Aho’s game continues to improve, the fact he’s coming off his first NHL All-Star Game appearance after being snubbed in 2018, and those comparables above, and you can likely expect a long-term extension somewhere between $7m-$8m annually. If we were to put a number on it today, we’d estimate an AAV of $7.5m against an eight-year deal, and $7m against a five or six-year deal.
This is likely to be a longer-term deal than Teravainen’s, with Aho three years younger, and would see the Carolina Hurricanes lock up their star player for the most exciting period in the team’s history since that 2006 Stanley Cup run.
Don Waddell needs to press on with negotiations as soon as possible, before Aho’s production dictates an even higher cap hit than any of us can anticipate. A lower cap hit means more freedom for Waddell to make trades, agree other extensions, and sign free agents in the summer. Any delay in getting Aho’s deal done only acts to impair his ability to build a winning team in Raleigh.
Next. Comparisons for Teuvo Teravainen's contract extension. dark
There is no doubt at all that Sebastian Aho will sign a long-term extension with the Carolina Hurricanes. The longer the season goes on, the more expensive the deal potentially becomes – and with so many dangerous comparables for his new deal, the Canes will do well to keep Aho’s deal south of $7m. No matter the amount, Canes fans are blessed to have such an exciting talent plying his trade in Raleigh, and the future of the franchise will be very secure once Aho has signed on the dotted line.