What are the playoff chances of every bubble team in the Eastern Conference?
The Carolina Hurricanes are starting to fall behind in the Eastern Conference playoff race. What are their chances, among others, now?
The Eastern Conference playoff race has opened up a bit in the past month, especially in the Metropolitan Division. For a good portion of the 2017-18 NHL season, the Metro was the tightest division race among all of them. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals could be starting to pull away, and really separate themselves from the rest of the pack down the stretch.
Even the Philadelphia Flyers have caught fire within the past few weeks. Their offense really took off at the beginning of February, behind star forward and captain Claude Giroux. However, they’re not too far ahead of a few of the teams in the wildcard race, and need to be diligent of their place in the standings.
As of now, the Flyers sit with 79 points, Pens with 80, and Caps with 81. Washington would play the top wildcard team if the season were to end today, March 7. However, the Caps are still behind all three of the top teams in the other division in the East.
The Atlantic Division’s top three teams all have at least four points more than the Caps. Those three teams in the Atlantic are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Tampa Bay Lighting. Overall, the Bolts actually have the most points in the league, just one ahead of the Nashville Predators from the Western Conference.
There’s seven teams that are either in the thick of the wildcard race in the East, or at least still have a shot. Some are a long shot. Anyhow, here’s the outlook and percentage chance for each of those teams making it into the playoffs in 2018.
All teams and factors
No team in this race has more than 18 games remaining on the regular season slate. March is the last full month of the regular season, and we’re really starting to see the playoff picture take shape. However, there’s still enough action left for a good range of teams to have a chance.
Most of the teams in this race are from the Metro, with two from the Atlantic also. Those teams from the Metro include the New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Carolina Hurricanes, New York Islanders, and New York Rangers.
The two teams from the Atlantic are the Florida Panthers and Detroit Red Wings. It’s hard to argue that the Panthers are not the hottest team of the bunch, and they have the most games remaining. But we can focus on that later.
This will be a tight and entertaining race down the stretch. Obviously, the amount of games remaining and points so far are two of the most important factors in determining the percentages. Also, the strength of the teams of late, and the recent history in clutch time are significant factors.
Pick Analysis. 66 Games Played. Detroit Red Wings. 7. player. 72. Scouting Report. 26-29-11 (63 Points)
It seems like the Wings already had their chance to get a run going, and it has faded of late. Detroit is currently going through a lengthy rebuild process, as they phased out a legendary generation of talent just a few years ago, and some of it is still on the roster.
With two teams sitting 10 and 13 points ahead of the Wings in the standings, the chances are really starting to look bleak for them. It would take a huge run, likely at least 10 wins in the coming weeks, to have a legitimate opportunity, but that is still possible.
Captain forward Henrik Zetterberg is having another solid season, even though his time is about to run out in the league. Veteran goalie Jimmy Howard is also having a better season between the pipes. Detroit’s goalie depth does end there. Petr Mrazek was dished out at the Deadline.
If the Wings were to make a run at things, Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha also will be counted on. Detroit has upcoming matchups with the Vegas Golden Knights, Jackets, and San Jose Sharks. It is a difficult upcoming schedule to deal with.
Playoff Chances: 5%
29-29-9 (67 Points). 67 Games Played. New York Islanders. player. 106. Pick Analysis. 6. Scouting Report
The laundry list of things to do for the Islanders this off-season is very lengthy. Keeping superstar forward John Tavares on hand is the first. Having Tavares committed for the long-term starts with a playoff appearance this season.
A move to a new arena soon, combined with a talented offense could be enough to power the Isles for the rest of the regular season, but things are not looking great now. For some reason, the Isles can never get the goaltending level required to make a playoff run.
Last year, Isles starting goalie Thomas Greiss was solid, but it’s gone downhill fast. Greiss cannot get his save percentage above .900. That’s making it difficult for the Isles to get anything going right now. In the last 10 games, the Isles only have two wins.
Moreover, no teams on this list have fewer games left on the slate than the Isles. It would take a complete turnaround of this team’s fortunes in the final month to get into a playoff spot and stay there for good.
Playoff Chances: 10%
Pick Analysis. New York Rangers. player. 95. Scouting Report. 30-31-6 (66 Points). 67 Games Played. 5
This was not supposed to happen for the Rangers. They “blew it all up” at the Trade Deadline, giving away a good portion of their assets that would have allowed them to make a run. Players like Rick Nash, J.T. Miller, and Ryan McDonagh were all dealt out.
However, the strong goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist this season, in combination with a drop in competition for the surrounding teams in the standings, put the Rangers in contention still. It was still a largely good move for the Rangers to have the activity they did on the Deadline.
Some part of you still has to think that the Rangers’ attitude toward throwing the rest of the season in the garbage is going to catch up with them. However, the fact that they’re still remaining competitive is still more than teams like the Isles and Wings can say.
The next two games on tap for the Rangers, the Bolts and Canes, are going to be a real test for them. Tampa Bay is still the top team in the league and just defeated the Panthers yesterday. Meanwhile, the Canes are a divisional opponent fighting for their lives.
Playoff Chances: 12%
67 Games Played. player. Pick Analysis. Carolina Hurricanes. 4. 109. Scouting Report. 29-27-11 (69 Points)
It was just a few days ago that the Canes were riding a two-game winning streak and found themselves firmly in a wildcard spot. This might be the hardest team to figure out on this list, and that does not bode well for their playoff chances.
Moreover, it almost seems like a stigma at this point that the Canes will miss the playoffs. They’re in the midst of a potential nine season playoff drought, and that has to get to the heads of players in the locker room.
Especially for guys like Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk, that have been in Raleigh for a while, it has to be warring on them. Head coach Bill Peters needs to energize the locker room, to get things going before a tough final stretch of games.
Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, and Skinner are keys to a good run down the stretch run for the Canes. The goaltending needs to improve too. The Canes take on the Chicago Blackhawks next, and then the Rangers. Those are two huge games with four huge points involved.
Playoff Chances: 25%
player. 34-28-5 (73 Points). Columbus Blue Jackets. 3. 113. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. 67 Games Played
Columbus actually is one of the two teams on this list that hold a playoff spot at this point. With two straight victories, including a huge win on March 6 over the Vegas Golden Knights, the Jackets are two points ahead of the team behind them, the Panthers.
However, there’s still some questions for Columbus head coach John Tortorella before the confidence in their ability to make the playoffs goes up. In the last 10 games, the Jackets have a record slightly above average, at 5-4-1.
Artemi Panarin is having a huge season for the Jackets, as is reigning Vezina Trophy winning goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Both of those players are the most important to a Jackets run to the playoffs. Cam Atkinson needs to step it up too on offense.
Tortorella has been in this position before, and he is a Stanley Cup winning head coach. He knows what needs to be done to get it done on the ice. Watch out for players like Panarin, Bobrovsky, Atkinson, Seth Jones, and Zach Werenski to keep this team in things the rest of the way.
Playoff Chances: 45%
32-25-7 (71 Points). 64 Games Played. 2. player. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. Florida Panthers. 97
No team is hotter in the East right now than the Panthers. A seven game winning streak was just brought to an end by the Bolts on March 6. And it took overtime to do it. The Panthers did not go away quietly against the team that is possibly the favorite to win the Stanley Cup right now.
While the Panthers are two points back from the Jackets at this moment, they have three games up on them. Florida also has a ton of home games remaining on the slate which should favor them as well. There’s a lot falling their way.
The pieces are really all falling into place for the Panthers with veteran goalie Roberto Luongo healthy and back ready to man the nets. Even backup goalie James Reimer has put together a solid run, and provides some depth between the pipes.
Mainly, all the young offensive talent is powering the Panthers right now. Aleksander Barkov is having a career season as is Jonathan Huberdeau. It’s hard to slow down this time right now, and they’re very likely to power through into the playoffs for the first time in a few years.
Playoff Chances: 55%
Scouting Report. 67 Games Played. 1. Pick Analysis. 34-25-8 (76 Points). New Jersey Devils. player. 85
One of the biggest turnaround stories in the NHL this season is the Devils. Few expected the Devils to even be in playoff contention this season, and they’ve been there the entire way. That’s largely thanks to two key offensive players leading the way.
New Jersey is continuing to stay in contention at this moment, staying exactly at .500 in the past 10 games. The Devils are also the top team in the standings on this list. They’re not too far behind the Flyers, Pens, and Caps at the top of the Metro standings.
Hart Trophy contender Taylor Hall is the overall points leader for the Devils, and the former No. 1 overall pick Nico Hischier is also having a big rookie year. At this moment, Hall has 74 points in 62 games played and could be considered one of the top three in the MVP race.
Next: 10 fan bases more tortured in the NHL than the Carolina Hurricanes
Jesper Bratt and the elevated play of goalie Keith Kinkaid can also be thanked for the success for the Devils this season. Kinkaid had to step up in place of the injured Cory Schneider. It’s likely that the Devils will either keep their current place in the standings, or even advance into the top three in the Metro.