Carolina Hurricanes Defense Search: Top Five Free Agent Defensemen
5. Kris Russell
The opinion on Kirs Russell is divided pretty starkly into two different camps. The analytics guys hate him and point to his low Corsi percentages as to him being an awful player in his own zone. The eye test people point to his goals and hits to show and example of a player where the analytics doesn’t capture the whole picture.
The argument on the player was so ferocious that the Edmonton Oilers even made up some fake stats to support their signing of Russell. This season Russell has been awful in both the points department and the Corsi department as well. His Corsi For percentage of 46.29 is worst on the team and his seven points second worst only to Eric Gryba.
For a supposedly offensive minded defenseman, those numbers are quite troubling. At 29 years old, Russell isn’t that good of a defenseman anymore and isn’t young enough to improve. Somewhere out there some GM wanting to stick it to the computer boys will sign him, and it will be a horrible mistake.
If I had to guess I’d pick Las Vegas, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Chiarelli double down on his idiocy in Edmonton. He hasn’t made a smart move since selecting Connor McDavid first overall in 2015 draft.
4. Michael Del Zotto
Michael Del Zotto is the youngest on the list at only 26 years old. While Del Zotto may be in decline it wouldn’t be quite as sharp as a player in their early 30s. Strangely enough, the Flyers didn’t trade Del Zotto at the trade deadline even though they did Mark Streit. That may signal Philadelphia could be working on resigning the left-handed defensemen.
Del Zotto isn’t a huge penalty killer for the Flyers which will bring his value down, his shot differential stats are generally favorable. This year for the Flyers, Del Zotto posted a 51.53 Corsi For percentage. Some of his stats could be due to the emergence of Radko Gudas as an offensive threat on the blueline this year. Del Zotto paired with Gudas for 338.72 minutes of his total 5v5 ice time.
A player like Del Zotto would go a long way to shoring up the Carolina Hurricanes third pairing. Del Zotto most likely will be looking for term on his contract and a raise. With all three of the Carolina Hurricanes young defenseman needing new contracts at the end of next year, this could make things complicated for Ron Francis.
If the playoffs are in the picture next year, the better strategy may be getting a rental at the deadline. Still, Del Zotto would be a much better option on the third pair than anyone currently on the roster or in the Carolina Hurricanes prospect pipeline.
3. Cody Franson
Cody Franson, like Del Zotto, was another surprise no sell from a team that was clearly a seller. It’s not like Franson has played awful either. His Corsi numbers aren’t great this year with a 49 percent, but his Relative Corsi is a 4.93 and his Relative Expected Goals percentage is 5.68. Both are good for second and first on the team respectively.
So why weren’t more teams trying to get this guy on their team? That’s the mystery. The lack of demand could also affect his price in the offseason as well. Would he be a good fit on the Carolina Hurricanes third pair?
Even with the nice relative stats, those were compiled on a very bad Buffalo Sabres team. Even the people who watch him on a regular basis describe Franson as a “semi-mobile pylon.” Not exactly a glowing recommendation. Franson most likely isn’t that bad, but he isn’t anywhere near elite either.
If one thinks that three years for 3.75 million is too much then Franson most likely is out of the question. But with Franson’s performance this year that will most likely be his new contract. The question is if Ron Francis thinks the Carolina Hurricanes can get similar or better performance for cheaper from the prospects. If so, then like Del Zotto it’s best to pass on the signing Franson.
2. Karl Alzner
Karl Alzner is on this list because a lot of people confuse team success with individual skill. Alzner has been a member what is to be likely back to back President’s Trophy winners. If (given the Capitals playoff history this is an if bigger than Zdeno Chara) the Capitals make the Stanley Cup Finals expect Alzner’s price to leap.
Give the Capitals a cup win and Alzner will be looking for a big payday. Just look at all the mediocre defensemen that got paid after Chicago Blackhawks wins. Brent Seabrook says hello! Alzner has both a Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage below fifty percent.
Obviously, the Carolina Hurricanes aren’t in the mix for a top four defensemen so Carolina fans don’t have to worry about Alzner signing here. The other thirty teams in the league though should be nervously checking the headlines each day after the playoffs in hopes they don’t see the dreaded headline: Your team signs Alzner 6 years for $4 million.
The GMs in this league aren’t smart. All they’ll see is a 21 +/- and a bunch of hits and decide Alzner has the grit to counter the other team’s skill. Hockey isn’t a Final Fantasy 3 battle. A gritty player isn’t an Ice 3 spell to a superior talented fire demon. Being a more skilled hockey team will always beat other teams; most especially the gritty ones.
1. Kevin Shattenkirk
Kevin Shattenkirk will be the most sought after free agent defenseman this offseason. He most likely will get a contract of six or seven years with an AAV between 5 and 6 million dollars. While the length may get teams in the end for the first three or so years of the contract it will be worth it. Shattenkirk is one of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league.
Shattenkirk’s Corsi percentage the past four seasons has only dipped below the 50 percent mark a couple of times. Even those stretches of subpar hockey were briefly turned around. A lot of teams could use a guy like Shattenkirk to bolster their defensive corp.
With the rumors saying that Shattenkirk is a lock for the New York Rangers this season, most of those teams will be disappointed. Luckily the Carolina Hurricanes have plenty of top pairing puck-moving defensemen in both Jaccob Slavin and Justin Faulk. It will be interesting to see the final value of Shattenkirk’s contract given the difference between him and the rest of the defensive free agent class.