The Carolina Hurricanes power play hasn’t been good this year and there is a new stat that might tell us why
Earlier this week over at Hockey Graphs, Matt Cane wrote an article about a new statistic called power play structure. Without going into too great of detail I’ll just quote his overview of the statistic:
"We can measure a team’s power play structure using shot location data, creating a Power Play Structure Index that quantifies their ability to establish and shoot from a structured formation… A Team’s Power Play Structure Index is a stronger predictor of future goal scoring than past goals, but weaker than shot attempt generation"
Basically, what Matt says is that teams that execute their powerplay structure more effectively tend to score more goals. He goes into great detail in his article on the methods and numbers he uses to prove it but I don’t want to bog you guys down with the actual math. If you enjoy in-depth statistical analysis like me be sure and go check it out.
Related Story: Is Rod Brind'Amour to Blame for Power Play Struggles
Where do the Hurricanes Rank
As you can see here the Carolina Hurricanes have not ranked very highly in this stat this year and the past six years. The regular stats seem to back this up as well. Carolina is both in the bottom third of the league in both CF60 and xGF60. Even if one wants to get super traditional the Hurricanes have a 17% PP rate which is also in the bottom third of the league. But none of this should come as any surprise to anyone who has watched the Hurricanes play this year. More often than not, Carolina will go on the powerplay and achieve one or two shots and a lot of times zero. Let’s try and figure out why, though.
Let’s Look at the Film
For this, we’ll take a look at the most recent game against the Avalanche. Yes, it is a small sample size, but I think it is indicative of the team’s performance this year. In this game, Carolina drew two penalties and failed to score on either one. And the best chance they did get on the power play looked like this:
After a faceoff win allows the Hurricanes to set up their Umbrella/Overload Hybrid formation that brings it back to the point then down to beneath the goal line. From there, a quick pass to Jordan Staal in the slot. So why aren’t the Hurricanes able to setup their system more often? One of the reasons I think is their overreliance on the back pass to the defense to generate zone entries. Maybe every once in a while as a surprise it works, but when a team uses it every time teams anticipate it. Colorado was no different as they were able to intercept the pass twice during Carolina’s power plays. Here’s an example of one of those times:
Again this is a small sample and the back pass isn’t a complete disaster every time. It seems like with every drop pass a Hurricanes player makes it takes away all the momentum of the rush and allows the opponent to setup on the blue line to effectively disrupt Carolina’s zone entry.
Next: Where do the Canes Go from Here?
Either way, the Carolina Hurricanes need to do something to figure out the power play. This is the one area where a coach holds the greatest ability to affect his player’s success or failure. Some may point to the lack of talent on the team as holding back the power play, but when the Hurricanes are able to regularly play top ten at 5v5 there should be no reason they can’t accomplish the same feat when they are up a man. Whether fans like it or not Rod Brind’Amours time as Power Play coach may be coming to an end in Raleigh.