Carolina Hurricanes Phil Di Giuseppe Poised for Breakout Season
Phil Di Giuseppe may only be 22 years old, but 2016-2017 will be the year he breaks out. After playing 41 games last season, the young forward is ready to make an impact night in and night out.
Looking at Di Giuseppe’s production numbers last year nothing jumps out too much. He scored 7 goals and 10 assists last year, but it is important to remember that is only over half of a season averaging 14:15 of ice time per game. As a comparison Jordan Staal led TOI with 18:18 per game and had 20 goals and 28 assists over 82 games.
Comparing Even Strength Performance
Comparing players can be tricky because they play in a variety of different situations, some players have more power play time and some have more time shorthanded. To make it even you can look at average time on ice at even strength.
In even strength situations PDG had 13:13 of ice time with 6 goals and 10 assists, meaning only one goal all season was on the power play. Staal played 13: 36 even strength minutes per game and scored 9 goals and 15 assists in these situations. Now 16 points doesn’t look too bad.
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To take TOI out of the equation we can use points/60 or points per 60 minutes of even strength game time played. This will show how efficient a player is at scoring when he is on this ice. In points/60 PDG ranked second on the team with 1.77 points, only behind Jeff Skinner who scored 2.05 points/60. Other players he beat in points/60 include Jonathan Toews (1.58), TJ Oshie (1.68), and Kyle Okposo (1.76)
Di Giuseppe was also best on the team in assists/60 with 1.11 which was .06 better than Jeff Skinner who was second. These are impressive numbers for someone who was a call up from the AHL last season after the team suffered injuries.
Possession Numbers Will Improve with Experience
Where Di Giuseppe will look to improve the most is in his possession numbers. First year players can struggle with adjusting to the speed and skill at the NHL level. This is normally reflected in possession numbers. If he is turning the puck over frequently it will lead to more shots against and fewer shots for.
Over the 2015-2016 season he ranked second to last in corsi for percentage on the team with a 47.7%. This means the Carolina Hurricanes only possessed the puck 47.7% of the time he was on the ice. The players with the most similar numbers for the Canes were Chris Terry (47.7%) and Jay McClement (46.3%).
Logic would say that with more NHL experience he will be more comfortable which will help him improve possession. If he spends more time at the top six he will most likely see an improvement in possession stats because he will be playing with higher quality players.
On top of being another year older and another year wiser, there is another reason to think Di GIuseppe will improve next year. Di Giuseppe led all Carolina Hurricanes in goal for percentage (gf%). A player’s gf% measures if a player is out on the ice for more goals for or goals against.
Gf% is calculated as goals for divided by the total goals scored when the player is on the ice. If a players gf% is above 50% then a player is on the ice for more goals for than goals against.
PDG registered a 53.3% meaning that hes on the ice for more Carolina Hurricanes goals than opposing goals. So despite being on the ice for more shots against than shots for, he is limiting higher chance opportunities and converting on the chances that he has more frequently than other players.
Looking forward to the 2016-2017 season, PDG will be a fun player to watch. He came in with relatively low expectations at just 21 years old and was able to produce at a meaningful level. With the the type of play that we have seen from him it is likely that he will be able to improve from being at the NHL level full time next season.
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More time and more experience will help the team gel and develop together. With a crowded core of players, it can be easy to get lost in the crowd. In 2016-2017 Phil Di giuseppe will be looking to make his move.