Carolina Hurricanes: Top 5 Questions This Offseason
As the Carolina Hurricanes’ offseason ramps up and things start to happen for the team, they’ll need to answer a few key questions.
A surprise breakthrough season for the Carolina Hurricanes didn’t end in a playoff birth. Now, Ron Francis and his team will have to make moves that enable this young roster to make a bid at the postseason not only next season but for many seasons to come.
Some big questions stand out more than others, but there’s still a lot that the Canes need to do in order to revamp their roster and make them a true contender in the Eastern Conference.
Fortunately, the job will be much easier than anticipated for Carolina. The team is far ahead of schedule in their rebuild with the emergence of their young defense and the sheer ability of the coaching staff.
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There are five big questions that stand out to me. Here’s the rundown.
How will draft picks be used?
The Carolina Hurricanes head into the 2016 draft in a dominant position. The club has seven selections in the first 90 picks in June, and with such an excess of picks, Ron Francis will have a plethora of options.
With a pair of first-round picks, the Canes have a lot of value both in drafting players and trying to pull off a trade.
Carolina Hurricanes
If things shake out the way it’s expected, they will have the 13th overall selection and a pick in the early 20’s, the latter of the picks was acquired from the Los Angeles Kings in the Andre Sekera trade at the 2015 trade deadline.
Carolina will be in the driver’s seat. They can choose to trade up from their 13th pick into the top 10 to get the guy they truly have their sights set on, they can stand pat and select the best player available or the player which best suits their need when their pick rolls around at 13, or they can part ways with the pick in order to get immediate help at a forward position. The same possibilities present themselves with their later first round draft pick and beyond.
The logical assumption would be that the Hurricanes will look to add to their forward unit through the draft, trades, and free agency given how dominant their young defensive core is.
They can accomplish their goal through drafting a forward of the future, or they can deal a pick or two in a package that brings back a legitimate offensive talent, which I went in-depth on earlier this week.
If the Canes opt to select a player with the pick, there will be options up front. The likes of Logan Brown (C), Michael McLeod (C), Tyson Jost (C), Julien Gauthier (RW), and Max Jones (LW) all project to be selected in the 10-20 range, meaning they are all viable options. Each player has their strengths and weaknesses but all are sound prospects that make sense for the Hurricanes.
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If the Canes opt to, instead, move the pick, they can look at players like Matt Duchene (COL), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM), Gustav Nyquist (DET), or Tomas Tatar (DET) as players who could come in and make an instant impact in a top-six role.
While the 13th overall pick will capture the most attention, it is just as likely that a group of lower picks, whether it’s their other first rounder or their five picks in rounds two and three, could be moved to accomplish the same goal of adding talent.
The Hurricanes have a 2% chance of seeing their 13th overall selection become the first overall pick. This will be decided at the draft lottery which will take place Saturday night at 7:00 pm.
Will Cam Ward Return?
Headlining Carolina’s list of unrestricted free agents is long-time goalie Cam Ward, who, like the rest of his team, is coming off of a season which rendered very mixed results.
Ward, 32, posted league-worst type numbers through November but then rebounded in a big way in the second half of the season. He finished the season with a 23-17-10 record, .909 save percentage, and 2.41 goals against average.
Those numbers and his declining performance over the past five seasons won’t get him a contract in the same ballpark of his previous deal which paid him north of $6 million per season, but it has yet to be ruled out that he could return on a much cheaper deal.
This situation requires a lot of due diligence from management. While Ward is far from being the guy he was back in 2010, there are very few free agent options that appear to be legitimate upgrades. James Reimer is an interesting name that stands out in this year’s free agent class.
There will be options in the trade market with Frederik Andersen likely being shopped around by the Ducks, but that could easily turn into a bidding war that the Hurricanes won’t want to participate in. The other option would be letting Eddie Lack have the starting role, but that would be the least favorable option as he has yet to prove that he can consistently carry a workload over an 82-game season.
Related Story: Goaltending a Top Priority in Offseason for the Canes
I couldn’t tell you what Francis will ultimately do with the goalies next season. The man has a great poker face and he keeps things very close to the vest. That being said, I’d say it’s likely that Ward exercises his right to hit the open market and listen to offers from different teams.
Meanwhile, Francis will continue to evaluate his options both in the trade market and through free agency. If the GM doesn’t find something he wants to do, smart money says he will re-up Ward for a year or two and bridge the gap for Alex Nedeljkovic, Carolina’s top goalie prospect.
Will Sebastian Aho come to North America?
Last season’s breakout prospect Sebastian Aho made a lot of noise in the Finish league. Now, the question is if he will bring hs talents to North Carolina.
Aho, 18, was selected with the 35th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and since then, he has propelled himself to a top-half of the first-round talent.
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The Finish winger was a point-per-game player with Karpat in the Liiga, Finland’s top hockey league, in 2015-2016. He finished second in league MVP voting after his stellar campaign. He followed his regular season performance with 15 points in 14 playoff game prior to being eliminated in the second round of the playoffs.
Aho is a complete forward who has been flexing his offensive muscles over the past year. He is elusive and he has high-level offensive vision and finishing ability, which make him a top candidate to make the opening night roster in October if he agrees to terms on an entry-level deal.
This will need to be a top priority for Ron Francis this offseason. Sebastian Aho is a legitimate first-round talent, and he needs to be playing in North America sooner rather than later. The quicker he becomes acclimated to the North American game, the quicker he can make an impact in the NHL with the Hurricanes.
He is still a prospect, which makes him a long-term option, not an instant star, and the Hurricanes need to remember that. If he signs with the organization this offseason, he needs to be given the time he needs in order to still develop the right way. If time in Charlotte is needed, that’s what he should be given.
What other prospects will make the jump?
Outside of Sebastian Aho, the Hurricanes have many viable options in their system.
Ultimately, the team won’t really know who is capable enough to go from juniors or the AHL to the NHL until they get a look at all these players in training camp and preseason.
QMJHL goal-leader Nicolas Roy has the size and skill to be an impact NHLer down the line. The 2015 fourth rounder, like Aho, was a complete steal for where he was selected. If he comes out and proves he is already an NHL-quality player, he will be in the running for a roster spot.
Defenseman Haydn Fleury will have an uphill battle for an NHL spot given Carolina’s defensive depth. As it stands right now, it looks like the top six will consist of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Salvin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Ron Hainsey, and 2015 draft day trade acquisition James Wisniewski.
Fleury will turn pro next season and will likely be getting a majority of his playing time in Charlotte, even if he is NHL ready.
More hurricanes: Hurricanes Prospect Roundup: Haydn Fleury
Brock McGinn had several NHL stints last season. He scored on his first shift in Detroit back in October, but from there on, it was a much less glamorous year for him in Raleigh. That being said, he has the intangibles to not only be a contender for a roster spot, but he is a favorite to land a bottom-six position given his two-way ability and his “hit everything in sight” attitude. The 2012 second-round pick turned 22 in February and is coming off a good year in Charlotte where he tallied 19 goals and 35 points in 48 games.
The roster spot availability for prospects and young players will largely depend on just how aggressive the Hurricanes will be this offseason. They need to decide if they want to leave spots open for younger players or go out and fill those holes via trades and free agency.
Are the Canes determined to be a playoff team next season?
Carolina’s offseason moves will be made with the future in mind, but if they are determined to make a legitimate playoff push next season, they will need to make moves that also contribute to their current success.
The Hurricanes finished seven points out of a playoff spot in 2015-2016, and despite exceeding expectations, they still have glaring holes in the lineup.
If they want to be a playoff team next season, they’ll need to add skilled players up front who have the ability to finish. Ideally, these players would be in their early or mid-twenties, so that they can not only make a big impact next season but also for a long time to come.
The free agent market will feature a lot of veteran players who could really help the team’s depth immediately, and Carolina will likely be able to snatch up some of those players if they are willing to spend the money and be aggressive.
Carolina’s offseason strategy will be based on how confident they are in their ability to make a deep run this upcoming season. If they think they are able to make the playoffs next season with their current core, look for them to be aggressive both in the trade market and the free-agent market. If they think they are still a year off, they will likely be passive and not take risks when it comes to sending away youth for immediate impact.
Next: Carolina's Options with Their 2nd First Round Pick
The next few months will be very telling for the Hurricanes. This will be a huge summer for Ron Francis, a GM who is still very new to this position. He has yet to make a glaring mistake, so expect that same pattern to continue on.