Carolina Hurricanes Could Benefit from New Draft Format
By Zeke Lukow
The Carolina Hurricanes and their fans are looking for some help from draft lottery format changes taking affect for this year’s event.
The lottery aspect of the NHL Entry Draft has been around since 1995, but this year sees one of the most significant changes in the system. In August of 2014, the NHL decided to slowly transition the format from the old system where one lottery was held for the first overall pick, and the last place team was guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick.
In 2015 the first change was made to try a keep teams from tanking just so they could keep their hopes for the #1 pick alive. The 30th place team’s chance to win the lottery dropped from 25% to 20%, and places 29-27 also saw reduction in the percentage to win. Places 26-17 saw an increase in their chances to win, with the 17th place chances increasing from .05% to 1%. This increases the odds for the teams closer to the playoffs, where the Carolina Hurricanes fall, and decreases the odds slightly for the last place teams.
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This year’s NHL Draft will see an even more dramatic change in the format. There will be three lottery draws for the first three picks, meaning a team can theoretically move three places in the draft. The percentages for the draft stay the same for the first overall pick, but will change after the selection of the first pick as the team that won the first pick will be removed from subsequent picks.
Carolina Hurricanes
Many believe that the last place team deserves the first overall pick because they need the help, so why was this change made? Much like in the NBA, the NHL wants to discourage teams from tanking, and specifically in years that have an elite number one prospect.
Last year’s Sabres, and this year’s Maple Leafs, are prime examples of what the NHL is trying to avoid. At the 2014 and 2015 trade deadlines the Sabres moved all workable assets, and even traded down starting and back up goalies multiple times. The Sabres held a fire sale like they were Big Lots trying to get rid of last year’s patio furniture in order to get Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. It worked.
Another reason that these changes are happening is the run of great luck that Edmonton has had. In the past 6 years the Oilers have had the first overall pick four times. Not only is it overly beneficial to an organization to get the first pick this many times, it has limited the exposure and development of top prospects on a team that just isn’t competing or contending.
This year, with another all but guaranteed franchise player up for grabs in Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs have gone ‘all in’ on tanking, pulling a ‘Buffalo Sabres fire sale’ impression at the trade deadline. The NHL doesn’t want to see teams purposefully fielding terrible products on the ice because it will drive fans away and empty buildings. This is why they are taking emphasis off of last place and giving other teams the chance to win the top pick.
What Does this Mean for the Carolina Hurricanes?
The Carolina Hurricanes may be close to the playoffs, but if they don’t make it there could be a bright spot on the horizon. The Hurricanes will have the three chances to win the first, second, or third picks in the draft. If the Hurricanes come across a string of bad luck on the ice (Ed Note – Cardiac Cane is by no means hoping for this.) their chances will improve in the draft lottery.
If you would like to see what the draft is all about yourself, use the NHL Draft Lottery Simulator. I lived on that site last year during the home stretch of the season, but they have now updated the system to include the new draft changes. It also updates the odds and standings after each night, so it gives you a real time projection of the draft.
Today I ran the simulator once, and no joke this was the result. If it happens like this in June, I will actually cry.
All of this will probably for naught because, as we all know, the Oilers will just win another draft lottery and will get another first overall pick. Because McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nial Yakupov, and Taylor Hall weren’t enough to make that franchise great again.
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Carolina Hurricanes fans have a lot to look forward to in the coming years. It is important to note that even if the Hurricanes lose some games down the stretch and don’t make the playoffs, our chances for a top three pick improve. Either way, fans should be very proud of this team, and should be very satisfied with any result this season. Things are looking up for the organization for the first time in years.