Carolina Hurricanes Should be Conservative Buyers at the Trade Deadline
By Brett Finger
Carolina Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis has many strategies to consider at the trade deadline, but the conservative buyer route may be the perfect way to go.
The February 29 trade deadline is now just one month away. With all the talk about dealing players like Eric Staal and Cam Ward, the assumption for many has been that the Carolina Hurricanes will be sellers at the deadline, but is that really the right decision?
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The answer to that question is fully dependent on who you ask, and unless you ask Ron Francis that question, their response doesn’t necessarily matter. That being said, the Canes have to really consider being conservative buyers at the NHL trade deadline.
When the All-Star break ends early next week, the Hurricanes will be tenth in the Eastern Conference, one point out of the eighth place spot and just five points out of third. This team is right in the heart of a late-season playoff push, so turning into sellers at the deadline would likely eliminate them from contention.
There’s a lot to consider here. This team is full of young, energetic, and confident players. If management doesn’t show confidence in them, then what happens to the player’s confidence? Especially if you trade away the leader and captain, Eric Staal. That could be an easy way to put a blow in the morale of not only the players, but also the fan base.
That’s a risk, and why wouldn’t there be confidence in this current group of players? They’re the third hottest team in the East over their last 10 games, and they are coming off a 5-0 trouncing of the Western Conference-leading Chicago Blackhawks. This young core has proven that they can beat anyone.
Adding talent is rarely a bad idea, though it is fair to point out that there are exceptions – see the Alex Semin saga from just a couple seasons ago. That’s where conservatism is key to being buyers at the deadline if you’re the Hurricanes. Adding veterans and talented players could be a big boost, especially at the forward positions.
Forwards
There has been a lot of good and bad from Carolina’s forward core this season. As of late, it has been a lot of good. Here’s a run down of the four current forward lines for the Canes.
Kris Versteeg – Eric Staal – Phil Di Giuseppe
Joakim Nordstrom – Jordan Staal – Andrej Nestrasil
Jeff Skinner – Victor Rask – Elias Lindholm
Chris Terry – Jay McClement – Riley Nash
Of the lineups above, there are several things that you can’t change. The second line featuring Nordstrom, Staal, and Nestrasil is dominant in their own end, and they keep the puck in the offense zone for absurd amounts of time. They consistently find themselves with positive possession and corsi numbers. This has been the team’s best and most consistent line, so there is no reason to mess that up.
Carolina Hurricanes
Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal are staples on the team’s first line, but the argument can be made that Di Giuseppe is slotted too high. That being said, he performed very well with them against the Blackhawks, so it may be wise to wait it out and see what they can do for the next little while.
Skinner, Rask and Lindholm is a line that will likely be broken up at some point. Lindholm may find his way back up to the first line with Staal and Steeger in the near future, which would bring Di Giuseppe back down to the third line. The combination of Skinner, Rask, and Di Giuseppe worked magic for this team in December, so putting them back together could be very beneficial.
The top-nine is largely very good and very young. Let those nine players grow together and be effective. The fourth line, though, is somewhat questionable.
Jay McClement is slotted where he needs to be. He is an effective and defensively responsible fourth-line guy. His veteran presence is something that really makes him a valuable asset, and he is a common fixture on the penalty kill.
Chris Terry and Riley Nash are question marks. Terry has done nothing this season to convince me that he is anything more than an AHL scorer. This coaching staff really wants him to be more than that, but he isn’t. When Gerbe comes back from injury, he should take his spot.
Nash has had his moments of good and bad hockey this season. He has been a very iffy player at times, and, in my opinion, Brad Malone is a better fit for the fourth line given his fearless attitude and his ability to play physically and defend his teammates. When he drops the gloves it really gives energy to his teammates and the crowd. It’s smart for him to play, but maybe not every night. He has a tendency to take ill-advised penalties, specifically with his stick, so giving him a more limited role until he can work on his discipline would be wise.
So, after looking up and down the forward lines, there are several things that you can do without breaking the bank.
First off, adding a bottom-six forward would help bolster and legitimize their depth. This player doesn’t have to be anything special, just a reliable two-way player that can make plays and be responsible. This also has to be a player that can fit easily into head coach Bill Peters’ system. You don’t want a guy who is going to play his own way and mess up the line chemistry in a heartbeat.
The price tag for a guy like that won’t be high either. Perhaps a mid-round draft pick and a mid-level prospect going the other way? The Hurricanes have a plethora of those assets, so they wouldn’t be losing much and they’d be gaining a very helpful player for a playoff push.
If Francis wants to one-up that depth addition, he can go after a talented top-six forward. This is more risky, and it would require more assets going the other way.
Adding an established top-six player would push down Phil Di Giuseppe, and maybe even place him down in the AHL again. This wouldn’t be bad for him as he would continue to get top minutes with an elite Charlotte Checkers team. He would also be the team’s top call-up option for the remainder of the season.
The new forward would likely slot in with Staal and Versteeg, or even with Rask and Skinner. This adds offensive stability, and again, could be big for this team’s playoff push.
The price tag would be higher for a top-six player, so adding one of their many young defensemen to the deal may be necessary. A guy like Roland McKeown should be considered expendable and could be added in with a mid-round pick to make this go through. Also, cap space isn’t a concern for this team.
If it’s a rental player, that’s fine. If it’s a player with years remaining on his deal, that’s even better. If the player has only a year left on his contract, they can try to extend him, especially given that the only notable salary increase the team will have to give is Victor Rask. Pair that with the likely pay decreases of Eric Staal and Cam Ward (if they are both still around), that would even out, if not come in significantly lower, than what they are currently paying those three players combined.
Outside of the forward core, there isn’t much to do.
Defense
The talk of the NHL, in regards to the Carolina Hurricanes, has been how well the young defensemen have been playing. The current state of the defense is the best it has been in half a decade. Here’s what it currently looks like.
John-Michael Liles – Brett Pesce
This core of defensemen leads the league in shot suppression, and they are top-5 of the NHL in a plethora of possession and neutral zone stats, including but not limited to plays that drive the puck up the ice, loose puck recoveries, and successful neutral zone passes.
Outside of two outliers, Ron Hainsey and John-Michael Liles, the average age of the Hurricanes defense is 21. That isn’t including seventh defenseman Michal Jordan who is still just 25.
If you’re Ron Francis, you don’t touch anything with this defense. They have been shutting down opponents game in and game out.
The same goes for the goaltending.
Goaltending
Cam Ward and Eddie Lack both played well-below average for much of the first quarter of the season, but they’ve turned things around in a very convincing way as of late.
Prior to his injury, Ward allowed just 18 total goals and posted a 5-3-2 record over his last 10 starts. That is good for 1.8 goals allowed per game and a .924 save percentage. Those aren’t top-5 goalie numbers, but they’re still very strong. Strong enough to give the Canes a very good chance to win every game.
Eddie Lack has played out of his mind after an abysmal start. At one time, he ranked last amongst all eligible goalies in save percentage and goals against average. Now, over his past 10 starts, he is 6-3-1 while allowing just 20 goals. That is good for a 2.0 goals allowed per game, and that is including an outlier against the Penguins in which he allowed 5 in a very poor all around team effort on January 17. Excluding that game, he has allowed just 15 goals in 9 games, which is 1.67 goals per game. He also has a .931 save percentage over his last 10 outings. Excluding the Pittsburgh outing, it is .942.
The moral of the story for the goaltending is that there’s nothing wrong with how these two have played recently. They are trending way up, which is a big reason for this team’s resurgence and re-entrance into the playoff hunt.
Recap
There’s a lot that Ron Francis could do at the deadline, but he shouldn’t be too radical in whatever he does. If he sells, he should be conservative. If he buys, he needs to be conservative.
I side with him being a buyer, adding some minor yet important pieces to the forward core, and bolstering the lineup in that way. That way, the team doesn’t need to give up valuable pieces, and they can still reap the benefits of being a more legitimate playoff contender come March and April.
Currently, this team isn’t far away from doing what no one expected them to do – making the playoffs. With a few minor moves, they will be more than just a one-round and done team. And on the flip side of that, they still have all their big pieces that will make them serious contenders for a very long time.
Next: Canes Have Big Roster Decisions to Make After All-Star Weekend
Go Canes!