Carolina Hurricanes Attendance in Historical Perspective
Carolina Hurricanes fans, like clockwork every season, have to endure the press, both local and national, bemoaning the attendance numbers at the PNC Arena.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the start of the season, midseason or the final numbers for the year. The Hurricanes are always lambasted for their presumably weak attendance numbers. But are the stories accurate? Do they tell the whole story?
They do not.
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The latest attendance alarm came from the Triangle Business Journal. Staff writer Jason deBruyn wrote on January 21st that the attendance was the lowest in the league, and that the margin between this year and previous years was the biggest ever. Those statements are too simplistic to explain the Hurricanes attendance numbers over the years.
The attendance numbers ARE down this year. There’s no denying that. At the All Star break they are averaging 11,561 butts in the seats, the lowest in the league behind the Coyotes by 1,500 and the Islanders by over 1,600 per game. But just looking up the numbers and calculating occupancy percentages and margins doesn’t explain why the Hurricanes are where they are. It’s more complicated than most non-hockey reporters and commentators understand.
The Fans, the press, the public, everyone need to be realistic about the Hurricanes and their attendance numbers. The issue of getting people in the seats for a sporting event isn’t a simple yes or no question, especially when you’re discussing hockey in North Carolina.
Carolina Hurricanes
We are not a hockey city or state. We don’t have the history and generational fan base of the Original Six or teams that have been in the league for decades. Hockey is not the #1 sport in North Carolina. You might generously argue that it’s the 4th most popular sport in the Triangle, behind College Basketball, College Football and the NFL. (Yeah, I know NASCAR is up there, but let’s not confuse things.)
But I say there is hope. Forget all the teams who have attendance numbers ranked in the top ten or fifteen. Hell, discount all the rankings down into the 20’s. The Hurricanes, when it comes to attendance, are a bottom-third team. That’s where the Hurricanes have been most seasons, and will be for most seasons to come. Let’s just accept that and move on.
Here are the numbers.
Since the 2005-06 season (remember that one?) the Canes have never exceeded 17,386 fans per game (2012-13), or ranked higher than 15th in average attendance (2006-07). Those two season are clear anomalies, and easy to explain.
Half of the 2012-13 season had been lost to a lock-out. The sports news in Raleigh was dominated for months by stories covering the labor dispute. This greatly increased the visibility of the team, and interest in getting back to playing. Let’s face it…we were all jonesing for a hockey game when they got back on the ice. Plus the numbers are based on 48 games, not 82.
The high ranking in 2006-07 is easily explained…the 2005-06 Stanley Cup win.
The lowest attendance was last year when the Canes were 29th in the league for attendance. Again, pretty easy to explain. The 2014-15 season marked the 6th in a row that the Canes had finished no better than 23rd in the league. They hadn’t even sniffed a playoff spot in, what felt like, forever. That record will drive down attendance for any team regardless of where they are located.
So, we’ve thrown out the best and worst years. Now let’s see where the Hurricanes SHOULD BE when it comes to attendance, and why no one should panic about this season yet.
If you average the attendance numbers and the rankings for the remainder of the seasons between 2005-06 and 2014-15, the Canes end up in 23rd place. That’s where they’ve been, and that’s where they’re going to be. Maybe a little higher. Maybe a little lower. We will never be up there with Toronto, Philadelphia and Calgary.
For this season there is even more hope that the numbers will improve. The Hurricanes are squarely in a playoff push. They are playing very good hockey right now, and being talked about as a post-season competitor by many who discounted their chances just a month ago. If the team does succeed in the last 31 games, and grabs a playoff berth, all this low attendance talk should stop. If you want proof just look at the 2008-09 final numbers…the last time they made a playoff run in Raleigh
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Continued strong play, a good finish to this season, and a spot in the playoffs (even with a 1st round exit) will do amazing things to our numbers for the rest of this season, and the next. To paraphrase the line from “A Field of Dreams”, build the wins and they will come.