Carolina Hurricanes: Updated Look at Seattle Expansion Draft Scenarios
No, I promise you aren’t having déjà vu. I’ve definitely touched on this subject before. The Seattle Expansion Draft is right around the corner, and the Carolina Hurricanes could see a few different scenarios play out.
Things are a little bit different now, and likely will even be more different by the time the Seattle Expansion Draft comes along, but I’d be remiss to not at least offer up a “pulse check” of sorts on where things stand for the Carolina Hurricanes’ and what we as fans should expect from the Expansion Draft in general.
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For starters, I think we should temper our expectations now; the Carolina Hurricanes are going to lose a good player, at the bare minimum.
As I’ve said before, I highly doubt Ron Francis will be as willing to play ball with the Carolina Hurricanes as George McPhee was in the Vegas Expansion Draft (the Canes gave up a 2017 5th round draft pick that was eventually used to draft C Jonathan Dugan if Vegas agreed to select Connor Brickley).
Despite having departed the Carolina Hurricanes’ organization almost 2 years and 11 months ago to the date (at the time of writing), Francis undoubtedly still has an intimate understanding of what he’ll be getting regardless of who he picks.
That being said, I’d like to discuss the two most likely scenarios, in no particular order, that the Carolina Hurricanes could run into in the Seattle Expansion Draft, and what it could mean for the Canes (and the Seattle Kraken) going forward.
Scenario #1: Jordan Staal Waives NMC
For starters, and for those who haven’t read my previous article on this topic, the Carolina Hurricanes have two choices when it comes to the format they can choose to protect players: they can protect either 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie or 8 skaters (forwards and defensemen) and 1 goalie.
Any player that has a full no-move clause – an NMC – (NTC’s and modified NTC’s do not count) must be protected by their team. That player can choose to waive their NMC to free up a protection spot, but that player will then be exposed for selection.
Jordan Staal is the only player with a full NMC on the Canes’ roster, and has a choice to waive it. Without getting to far into the weeds about how invaluable and irreplaceable he is to the Canes, this first scenario requires that he waive his NMC. I personally don’t believe Ron Francis would select him given his high salary/cap hit, but that’s another story entirely.
If Staal waives his NMC, this frees up an extra spot. I believe the Carolina Hurricanes would go the 8 skaters and 1 goalie route, and would protect Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen (thankfully, Martin Necas isn’t eligible for the Seattle Expansion Draft), Alex Nedeljkovic, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Jake Bean, and Haydn Fleury.
This, of course, means Dougie Hamilton would be exposed, but the fact that he’s an upcoming UFA would likely mean Francis wouldn’t want to select him over the other Carolina Hurricanes’ players with term left that would be on the table: Jake Gardiner, Brady Skjei, or Nino Niederreiter. (This could also be a bit of a strategic reason the Canes have chosen to wait until after the season ends to pursue contract extension negotiations with Dougie’s camp, but that’s pure speculation).
In this scenario, the Carolina Hurricanes would likely lose Brady Skjei, in my opinion. Gardiner has an injury history that has kept him out of a large portion of this season. Niederreiter could be the one chosen as well, seeing as how he’s had the mother of all rebound seasons, but that remains to be seen.
Francis likely would see Skjei as a safer bet, given his recent settling in with the Canes and his relatively modest salary paired with a pretty good bit of term ($5.25M through 2023-24).
If you’re worried about this scenario (you shouldn’t be), you might not want to read the next one. Proceed with caution.
Scenario #2: Jordan Staal Doesn’t Waive NMC
This scenario, as I mentioned before, throws a wrench in things for the Canes.
If Jordan Staal doesn’t waive his NMC, the Carolina Hurricanes would be forced to protect him. If they went the 8 skaters, 1 goalie route I mentioned before, they’d likely protect Staal, Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Slavin, Pesce, Fleury, Bean, and Nedeljkovic. This would mean that none other than Vincent Trocheck would be exposed, and likely selected, in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Of course, the Canes could opt to go for the 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie route, in which I think they’d protect Staal, Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Niederreiter, Trocheck, and one of Morgan Geekie, Brock McGinn, or Steven Lorentz alongside Nedeljkovic, Slavin, Pesce, and one of Fleury or Bean.
In that specific scenario, the Carolina Hurricanes would definitely lose whichever of Fleury or Bean remained exposed for selection; Francis drafted both of these young burgeoning defensemen, and would know exactly what kind of return he’d be getting in either of them.
This scenario would obviously be the worst of the two, and would result in the Carolina Hurricanes losing either a powerhouse forward who has become (despite missing a chunk of games this season due to injury) the wind in the sails of the Canes’ powerplay and netfront presence, or one of two very promising young defensemen.
If these past couple years haven’t been proof that we live in the worst timeline, I don’t know what further evidence we’d need aside from scenario #2 taking place over scenario #1.
Like I said before, the Carolina Hurricanes are going to lose a good player, at the bare minimum; let’s all keep our fingers crossed that Staal waives his NMC or that Don Waddell starts putting together some trade sorcery before or at the trade deadline in a couple weeks. I’m going to go ahead and start manifesting that they don’t lose a great player instead.
Prospect Profile: Jack LaFontaine. light. Hot